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Monday, 13 April 2020

COVID-19 13th April 2010


Summary

US saw 2,582 fewer new cases and 303 fewer deaths than previous day and first time new cases have been below 30,000 for 7 days..

Spain had lowest new cases (3,804) since 22 Mar (3,272) and their 'active' case curve is certainly flattening.

Italy continues to see new cases around 4,000 (4,092) but had lowest deaths (431) since 19 Mar (427).

France new cases reduced by almost 2,000 (1,848) and deaths reduced for 4th day.

Germany saw lowest no. of new cases (2,402) since 17 Mar (2,095) and their 'active' case curve, like Spain, shows signs of flattening.

UK new cases stay around 5,000 (5,233) but a few significant 'milestones': 
1/ UK now has more cases (84,279) than China (82,160) 
2/ UK now exceeds 10,000 deaths (10,616)
3/ Death rate has more than doubled in a week 10,616 v 4,934
4/ further confirmation that UK is following the trajectory of Italy
IT 74,386 25 Mar UK 73,758 10 Apr
IT 80,589 26 Mar UK 78,991 11 Apr
IT 86,498 27 Mar UK 84,279 12 Apr
5/ Whilst UK is around 15 days behind Italy's curve the UK death rate is already almost the same UK 12.6% v IT 12.7%

On 31 Mar I posted some stats showing the population density of each EU country which showed that UK had:
a/ highest population density 
b/ highest urban population density. 
This may go some way to explaining why UK looks likely to become the worst affected EU country.
Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country
New Cases
12 Apr
New Cases
11 Apr
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
12 Apr
 
Deaths
11 Apr
 
Death
Increase
IT 4,092 4,694 -602 431 619 -188
ES 3,804 4,754 -950 603 525 78
DE 2,402 3,281 -879 151 135 16
FR 2,937 4,785 -1,848 561 635 -74
UK 5,288 5,233 55 741 917 -176
US 27,421 30,003 -2,582 1,527 1,830 -303

Latest v previous days - actuals

Daily 12-Apr 11-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 4,092 156,363 19,899 12.7% 152,271 19,468 12.8%
ES 3,804 166,831 17,209 10.3% 163,027 16,606 10.2%
DE 2,402 127,854 3,022 2.4% 125,452 2,871 2.3%
FR 2,937 132,591 14,393 10.9% 125,654 13,832 11.0%
UK 5,288 84,279 10,616 12.6% 78,991 9,875 12.5%
US 27,421 560,300 22,104 3.9% 532,879 20,577 3.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 12-Apr 05-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 4,092 156,363 19,899 12.7% 128,948 16,523 12.8%
ES 3,804 166,831 17,209 10.3% 131,646 12,641 9.6%
DE 2,402 127,854 3,022 2.4% 100,123 1,584 1.6%
FR 2,937 132,591 14,393 10.9% 92,839 8,078 8.7%
UK 5,288 84,279 10,616 12.6% 47,806 4,934 10.3%
US 27,421 560,300 22,104 3.9% 338,779 9,636 2.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 102.7% 99.5% 121.3% 99.3%
ES 102.3% 101.3% 126.7% 107.4%
DE 101.9% 103.3% 127.7% 149.4%
FR 105.5% 98.6% 142.8% 124.8%
UK 106.7% 100.8% 176.3% 122.0%
US 105.1% 102.2% 165.4% 138.7%


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