Summary
New
Cases
|
Change | Deaths | Change |
Rec'ry
Rate
|
Death
Rate
|
||
| IT | 888 | 63.34% | 195 | 113.4% | 78.35% | 21.65% | Inc. |
| ES | 1,575 | 114.38% | 184 | 104.5% | 87.11% | 12.89% | Inc. |
| DE | 927 | 155.80% | 78 | 63.9% | 94.98% | 5.02% | Inc. |
| FR | 0 | 0.00% | 83 | 23.9% | 68.49% | 31.51% | Inc. |
| UK | 3,242 | 95.27% | 494 | 78.8% | 1.03% | 98.97% | Red. |
| US | 21,712 | 95.22% | 1,772 | 108.7% | 78.46% | 21.54% | Inc. |
Commentary
Russia reaches 250,000 cases (252,245) which have more than doubles since 1 May but no. of deaths is well below 1% at 2,212 with only 6 deaths reported yesterday.
Brazil' cases is approaching 200,000 (189,197) and have also doubled since 1 May.
IT - new cases -514 (63.34%), deaths +23 (113.37%), active cases -2,809 (72.47% of peak).
It's taken a while but Italy now has 27.5% fewer active cases than on 19 Apr and they appear to be reducing more quickly now and new cases have been lower than 1,500 per day for the 11th consecutive day so hopefully Italy is well over the peak.
ES - new cases +198 (114.38%), deaths +8 (104.38%), active cases -1,366 (61% of peak)
FR - new cases 0, deaths -265 (23.85%), active cases -1,136 (96.8% of peak)
No reported new cases in France - not sure if this is a reporting anomaly? Along with Italy and Germany France has reported less than 8,000 new cases in the last week (FR 7,674, IT 7,647, DE 5,936). Spain is just over double at 17,415 and UK has more than triple at 22,990.
DE - new cases +332 (155.8%), deaths -44 (63.93%), active cases -696 (24.07% of peak)
US - new cases -1,090 (95.22%), deaths +142 (108.71%), active cases +6,427 (99.33% of peak)
UK - new cases -161 (95.27%), deaths -133 (78.79%), active cases +2,748 (100% of peak)
UK Testing - last 7 days
| Daily | Cumulative | |||||
| No. Tests |
People
Tested
|
No. Tests |
People
Tested
|
% No. People
Tested
|
% of
Pop.
|
|
| 06-May | 86,583 | 85,092 | 1,534,533 | 1,139,626 | 98.28% | 2.26% |
| 07-May | 97,029 | 67,443 | 1,631,561 | 1,207,069 | 69.51% | 2.40% |
| 08-May | 96,878 | 63,339 | 1,728,443 | 1,270,408 | 65.38% | 2.54% |
| 09-May | 92,837 | 64,362 | 1,821,280 | 1,334,770 | 69.33% | 2.68% |
| 10-May | 100,490 | 65,337 | 1,921,770 | 1,400,197 | 65.02% | 2.83% |
| 11-May | 85,293 | 60,410 | 2,007,146 | 1,460,517 | 70.83% | 2.95% |
| 12-May | 87,063 | 61,741 | 2,094,209 | 1,522,258 | 70.92% | 3.08% |
Promising news today is that Swiss company Roche has developed an anti-body test which they claim is 100% accurate and has been approved by Public Health England. An anti-body test shows whether someone has already been infected with COVID-19 - I understand that it is only effective after 3/4 weeks of contracting the virus as the body needs to time to make anti-bodies. It requires blood being drawn by a healthcare professional to conduct the test which will unfortunately be the bottleneck.
Boris Johnson has set target of 200,000 test per day by end of May which sounds a lot but if we pause for a moment a/ the 100,000 target has only been met twice in May b/ to make an easy calculations let's assume 1m test per week (200k for 5 days) - it would take 68 weeks to test the whole of the UK i.e. almost 16 months. Even at 200k per day every day it would take 340 days (almost a year) to test whole population.
In an 'ideal' world let's assume that we would wish to have everyone tested within 3 months (which is not unreasonable?), that would require around 750k test per day. The previous test which required a pin prick of blood did not prove reliable. Let's hope Roche are able to develop the test further so that it does not require blood having to be taken by a healthcare professional which would hopefully expedite it's use.
Obviously testing will need to be prioritised to allow key workers who test positive (i.e. have already contracted the virus) to return to work 'safely' - in inverted quotes as we still do not now for sure whether testing positive means you are immune.
The ONS (Office of National Statistics) has published data on which occupations are most at risk of COVID-19 and not surprisingly health professionals i.e. dentists, ambulance staff, physiotherapists, healthcare staff, care home staff and even pharmacists top the list.
Latest stats from Worldometers
Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate
| Total | Active | Conc. | Recvd. | Deaths | Recvd% | Death% | |
| IT | 222,104 | 78,457 | 143,647 | 112,541 | 31,106 | 78.35% | 21.65% |
| ES | 271,095 | 60,764 | 210,331 | 183,227 | 27,104 | 87.11% | 12.89% |
| DE | 174,098 | 17,537 | 156,561 | 148,700 | 7,861 | 94.98% | 5.02% |
| FR | 178,225 | 92,313 | 85,912 | 58,838 | 27,074 | 68.49% | 31.51% |
| UK | 229,705 | 196,175 | 33,530 | 344 | 33,186 | 1.03% | 98.97% |
| US | 1,430,348 | 1,034,892 | 395,456 | 310,259 | 85,197 | 78.46% | 21.54% |
Latest v previous day - increase / decrease
| Country |
New Cases
13 May
|
New Cases
12 May
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
13 May
|
Deaths
12 May
|
Death
Increase
|
| IT | 888 | 1,402 | -514 | 195 | 172 | 23 |
| ES | 1,575 | 1,377 | 198 | 184 | 176 | 8 |
| DE | 927 | 595 | 332 | 78 | 122 | -44 |
| FR | 0 | 802 | -802 | 83 | 348 | -265 |
| UK | 3,242 | 3,403 | -161 | 494 | 627 | -133 |
| US | 21,712 | 22,802 | -1,090 | 1,772 | 1,630 | 142 |
Latest v previous day - actuals
| Day | 13-May | 12-May | |||||
| Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
| IT | 888 | 222,104 | 31,106 | 14.0% | 221,216 | 30,911 | 14.0% |
| ES | 1,575 | 271,095 | 27,104 | 10.0% | 269,520 | 26,920 | 10.0% |
| DE | 927 | 174,098 | 7,861 | 4.5% | 173,171 | 7,783 | 4.5% |
| FR | 0 | 178,225 | 27,074 | 15.2% | 178,225 | 26,991 | 15.1% |
| UK | 3,242 | 229,705 | 33,186 | 14.4% | 226,463 | 32,692 | 14.4% |
| US | 21,712 | 1,430,348 | 85,197 | 6.0% | 1,408,636 | 83,425 | 5.9% |
Latest v one week ago - actuals
| Week | 13-May | 06-May | |||||
| Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
| IT | 888 | 222,104 | 31,106 | 14.0% | 214,457 | 29,684 | 13.8% |
| ES | 1,575 | 271,095 | 27,104 | 10.0% | 253,682 | 25,857 | 10.2% |
| DE | 927 | 174,098 | 7,861 | 4.5% | 168,162 | 7,275 | 4.3% |
| FR | 0 | 178,225 | 27,074 | 15.2% | 170,551 | 25,809 | 15.1% |
| UK | 3,242 | 229,705 | 33,186 | 14.4% | 206,715 | 30,076 | 14.5% |
| US | 21,712 | 1,430,348 | 85,197 | 6.0% | 1,263,092 | 74,799 | 5.9% |
Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase
| Daily | Weekly | |||
| Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
| IT | 100.4% | 100.2% | 103.6% | 101.2% |
| ES | 100.6% | 100.1% | 106.9% | 98.1% |
| DE | 100.5% | 100.5% | 103.5% | 104.4% |
| FR | 100.0% | 100.3% | 104.5% | 100.4% |
| UK | 101.4% | 100.1% | 111.1% | 99.3% |
| US | 101.5% | 100.6% | 113.2% | 100.6% |
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