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Thursday, 14 May 2020

COVID-19 14th May 2020


Summary

New
Cases
Change Deaths Change
Rec'ry
Rate
Death
Rate
IT 888 63.34% 195 113.4% 78.35% 21.65%  Inc.
ES 1,575 114.38% 184 104.5% 87.11% 12.89%  Inc.
DE 927 155.80% 78 63.9% 94.98% 5.02%  Inc.
FR 0 0.00% 83 23.9% 68.49% 31.51%  Inc.
UK 3,242 95.27% 494 78.8% 1.03% 98.97%  Red.
US 21,712 95.22% 1,772 108.7% 78.46% 21.54%  Inc.

Commentary

Russia reaches 250,000 cases (252,245) which have more than doubles since 1 May but no. of deaths is well below 1% at 2,212 with only 6 deaths reported yesterday.
Brazil' cases is approaching 200,000 (189,197) and have also doubled since 1 May.

IT - new cases -514 (63.34%), deaths +23 (113.37%), active cases -2,809 (72.47% of peak).
It's taken a while but Italy now has 27.5% fewer active cases than on 19 Apr and they appear to be reducing more quickly now  and new cases have been lower than 1,500 per day for the 11th consecutive day so hopefully Italy is well over the peak.

ES - new cases +198 (114.38%), deaths +8 (104.38%), active cases -1,366 (61% of peak)

FR - new cases 0, deaths -265 (23.85%), active cases -1,136 (96.8% of peak)
No reported new cases in France - not sure if this is a reporting anomaly?  Along with Italy and Germany France has reported less than 8,000 new cases in the last week  (FR 7,674, IT 7,647, DE 5,936).  Spain is just over double at 17,415 and UK has more than triple at 22,990.

DE - new cases +332 (155.8%), deaths -44 (63.93%), active cases -696 (24.07% of peak)

US - new cases -1,090 (95.22%), deaths +142 (108.71%), active cases +6,427 (99.33% of peak)

UK - new cases -161 (95.27%), deaths -133 (78.79%), active cases +2,748 (100% of peak)

UK Testing - last 7 days

Daily Cumulative
No. Tests
People 
Tested
No. Tests
People 
Tested
% No. People
Tested
% of 
Pop.
06-May 86,583 85,092 1,534,533 1,139,626 98.28% 2.26%
07-May 97,029 67,443 1,631,561 1,207,069 69.51% 2.40%
08-May 96,878 63,339 1,728,443 1,270,408 65.38% 2.54%
09-May 92,837 64,362 1,821,280 1,334,770 69.33% 2.68%
10-May 100,490 65,337 1,921,770 1,400,197 65.02% 2.83%
11-May 85,293 60,410 2,007,146 1,460,517 70.83% 2.95%
12-May 87,063 61,741 2,094,209 1,522,258 70.92% 3.08%

Promising news today is that Swiss company Roche has developed an anti-body test which they claim is 100% accurate and has been approved by Public Health England. An anti-body test shows whether someone has already been infected with COVID-19 - I understand that it is only effective after 3/4 weeks of contracting the virus as the body needs to time to make anti-bodies. It requires blood being drawn by a healthcare professional to conduct the test which will unfortunately be the bottleneck.  

Boris Johnson has set target of 200,000 test per day by end of May which sounds a lot but if we pause for a moment a/ the 100,000 target has only been met twice in May b/ to make an easy calculations let's assume 1m test per week (200k for 5 days) - it would take 68 weeks to test the whole of the UK i.e. almost 16 months.  Even at 200k per day every day it would take 340 days (almost a year) to test whole population.

In an 'ideal' world let's assume that we would wish to have everyone tested within 3 months (which is not unreasonable?), that would require around 750k test per day.  The previous test which required a pin prick of blood did not prove reliable.  Let's hope Roche are able to develop the test further so that it does not require blood having to be taken by a healthcare professional which would hopefully expedite it's use.

Obviously testing will need to be prioritised to allow key workers who test positive (i.e. have already contracted the virus) to return to work 'safely' - in inverted quotes as we still do not now for sure whether testing positive means you are immune.

The ONS (Office of National Statistics) has published data on which occupations are most at risk of COVID-19 and not surprisingly health professionals i.e. dentists, ambulance staff, physiotherapists, healthcare staff, care home staff and even pharmacists top the list.

Latest stats from Worldometers


Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

Total Active Conc. Recvd. Deaths Recvd% Death%
IT 222,104 78,457 143,647 112,541 31,106 78.35% 21.65%
ES 271,095 60,764 210,331 183,227 27,104 87.11% 12.89%
DE 174,098 17,537 156,561 148,700 7,861 94.98% 5.02%
FR 178,225 92,313 85,912 58,838 27,074 68.49% 31.51%
UK 229,705 196,175 33,530 344 33,186 1.03% 98.97%
US 1,430,348 1,034,892 395,456 310,259 85,197 78.46% 21.54%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country
New Cases
13 May
New Cases
12 May
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
13 May
 
Deaths
12 May
 
Death
Increase
IT 888 1,402 -514 195 172 23
ES 1,575 1,377 198 184 176 8
DE 927 595 332 78 122 -44
FR 0 802 -802 83 348 -265
UK 3,242 3,403 -161 494 627 -133
US 21,712 22,802 -1,090 1,772 1,630 142

Latest v previous day - actuals

Day 13-May 12-May
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 888 222,104 31,106 14.0% 221,216 30,911 14.0%
ES 1,575 271,095 27,104 10.0% 269,520 26,920 10.0%
DE 927 174,098 7,861 4.5% 173,171 7,783 4.5%
FR 0 178,225 27,074 15.2% 178,225 26,991 15.1%
UK 3,242 229,705 33,186 14.4% 226,463 32,692 14.4%
US 21,712 1,430,348 85,197 6.0% 1,408,636 83,425 5.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Week 13-May 06-May
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 888 222,104 31,106 14.0% 214,457 29,684 13.8%
ES 1,575 271,095 27,104 10.0% 253,682 25,857 10.2%
DE 927 174,098 7,861 4.5% 168,162 7,275 4.3%
FR 0 178,225 27,074 15.2% 170,551 25,809 15.1%
UK 3,242 229,705 33,186 14.4% 206,715 30,076 14.5%
US 21,712 1,430,348 85,197 6.0% 1,263,092 74,799 5.9%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 100.4% 100.2% 103.6% 101.2%
ES 100.6% 100.1% 106.9% 98.1%
DE 100.5% 100.5% 103.5% 104.4%
FR 100.0% 100.3% 104.5% 100.4%
UK 101.4% 100.1% 111.1% 99.3%
US 101.5% 100.6% 113.2% 100.6%


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