COVID-19 31st March 2020

As predicted yesterday Italy now has over 100,000 cases and Spain has now more cases than China and within a few days it is likely that Germany will exceed the cases in China.

The great news is that it is 9 days now (21st March) since Italy saw its peak and new cases seem to be on the decline.

Germany's death rate continues to defy the trend in other countries.  I can't understand why the media has not focussed more on this.

I heard a remark on TV this morning that the reason Germany's death rate is so low is that they are testing people at less risk.  The figures speak for themselves 66,885 cases (i.e people who have tested positive and are infected) and 645 deaths equates to 1% death rate so I couldn't quite comprehend what he was saying so have looked further into it.

It is suggested that because Germany (and Austria) are testing far more people there are far more testing positive in the less high risk age group (under 60), hence less deaths.  If you look at it the other way (especially in UK) only those with symptoms severe enough to present to the health service are tested. Younger people with less severe symptoms who are recovering are not presenting to the health service are not recorded as they perhaps would be in Germany as testing is more wide spread. 

You should not be too alarmed at the death rate as the numbers are skewed because the death rate is of those presenting with severe symptoms and not on the population as a whole that have had less severe symptoms.

The main theory as to why Italy has seen so many deaths is the aging population so I thought I'd check the average age for each country to see if Germany had a much younger population and as you can see from the list they sit firmly between Italy and France and Germany in fact has the 4th oldest population in the world after Japan, Italy and Martinique.

Country / Average Age / World Rank (source Worldometers)

JP 48.4 1st

IT 47.3 2nd

DE 45.7 4th

ES 44.9 7th

FR 42.3 28th

UK 40.5 45th

CH 38.4 53rd

US 38.3 54th

Another interesting statistic is that the UK is the most densely populated of the 5 major European countries with also the highest urban percentage - so you would 'think' that spread 'could' be potentially higher.

Country / population per square mile / urban percentage.

UK 727 83.2%

DE 623 76.3%

IT 523 69.5%

FR 300 81.5%

ES 243 80.3%

Table shows latest new cases/deaths  compared with previous day:

Country	New Cases 30 Mar	New Cases 29 Mar	New Case Increase	Deaths 30 Mar	Deaths 29 Mar	Death Increase
IT	4,050	5,217	-1,167	812	756	-56
ES	7,486	6,803	683	913	821	-92
DE	4,450	4,740	-290	104	108	4
FR	4,376	2,599	1,777	418	292	-126
UK	2,619	2,433	186	180	209	29
US	20,353	18,822	1,531	672	263	-409

Table shows latest figures compared to previous day's figures

Daily	30-Mar				29 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,050	101,739	11,591	11.4%	97,689	10,779	11.0%
ES	7,874	87,596	7,716	8.8%	80,110	6,803	8.5%
DE	4,450	66,885	645	1.0%	62,435	541	0.9%
FR	4,376	44,550	3,024	6.8%	40,174	2,606	6.5%
UK	2,619	22,141	1,408	6.4%	19,522	1,228	6.3%
US	20,353	163,884	3,156	1.9%	142,460	2,484	1.7%

Table shows latest figures compared to previous weeks's figures

Weekly	30-Mar				23 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,050	101,739	11,591	11.4%	63,927	6,077	9.5%
ES	7,874	87,596	7,716	8.8%	35,136	2311	6.6%
DE	4,450	66,885	645	1.0%	29,056	123	0.4%
FR	4,376	44,550	3,024	6.8%	19,856	860	4.3%
UK	2,619	22,141	1,408	6.4%	6,650	335	5.0%
US	20,353	163,884	3,156	1.9%	43,781	555	1.3%

Table shows Daily/Weekly increase in percentages

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	104.1%	103.3%	159.1%	119.8%
ES	109.3%	103.7%	249.3%	133.9%
DE	107.1%	111.3%	230.2%	227.8%
FR	110.9%	104.6%	224.4%	156.7%
UK	113.4%	101.1%	332.9%	126.2%
US	115.0%	110.4%	374.3%	151.9%