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Monday, 20 April 2020

COVID-19 20th April 2020


Summary

New
Cases
Change Deaths Change
Rec'ry
Rate
Death
Rate
IT 3,047  -12.72% 433 -11.3% 66.54% 33.46%  Increasing
ES 4,258  +19.04% 410 -37.8% 79.09% 20.91%  Increasing
DE 2,018 -13.28% 104 -78.8% 94.99% 5.01%  Increasing
FR 1,101 -71.21% 395 -62.5% 64.97% 35.03%  Reducing
UK 5,850 +5.88% 596 -49.0% 2.10% 97.90%  Reducing
US 25,844 -11.06% 1,561 -19.2% 63.70%  36.30%  Increasing
Commentary

All countries had fewer deaths than yesterday.

US - Lowest new cases since 5 Apr (25,400)

ES - has 2nd highest recovery rate after Germany at 79.09% and their active cases began to flatten but have turned upwards in the last few days with an increase in new cases reported.

IT - on day 42 of lockdown still continues to have 3,000+ new cases daily.

FR - lowest new cases since 17 Mar and lowest deaths since 29 Mar.

DE - shows greatest signs of controlling virus with active cases reducing from peak of 72,865  6 Apr to 53,100 (a reduction of 27.1% in 13 days) and recovery rate of 94.99% and lowest no. of deaths.

UK - lowest no. of deaths since 6 Apr, yet 2nd highest no. of new cases (5,850 v 5,903 5 Apr) almost 4 weeks (26 days) after lockdown.
The concerning trend is that UK looks like it now may be a day ahead of the IT trajectory as it took Italy 4 days to increase from 100,000 to 120,000 cases and UK has reached it in 3 days.
IT  30 Mar 101,739 - 3 Apr 119,827
UK 16 Apr 103,093 - 19 Apr 120,067
The next figure to watch then is 150,000 which took Italy 7/8 days to reach from 120,000.  If UK rates continue at current rate of 5,000+ a day then the 150,000 figure will be reached within 6 days.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day Recovery Rate v Death Rate

Total Active Conc. Recvd. Deaths Recvd% Death%
IT 178,972 108,257 70,715 47,055 23,660 66.54% 33.46%
ES 198,674 100,864 97,810 77,357 20,453 79.09% 20.91%
DE 145,742 53,100 92,642 88,000 4,642 94.99% 5.01%
FR 152,894 96,598 56,296 36,578 19,718 64.97% 35.03%
UK 120,067 103,663 16,404 344 16,060 2.10% 97.90%
US 764,636 652,874 111,762 71,187 40,575 63.70% 36.30%

Latest v previous day increase/deacrease
Country
New Cases
19 Apr
New Cases
18 Apr
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
19 Apr
 
Deaths
18 Apr
 
Death
Increase
IT 3,047 3,491 -444 433 482 -49
ES 4,258 3,577 681 410 565 -155
DE 2,018 2,327 -309 104 186 -82
FR 1,101 3,824 -2,723 395 642 -247
UK 5,850 5,525 325 596 888 -292
US 25,844 29,057 -3,213 1,561 1,860 -299

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily 19-Apr 18-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 3,047 178,972 23,660 13.2% 175,929 23,227 13.2%
ES 4,258 198,674 20,453 10.3% 194,416 20,043 10.3%
DE 2,018 145,742 4,642 3.2% 143,724 4,538 3.2%
FR 1,101 152,894 19,718 12.9% 151,793 19,323 12.7%
UK 5,850 120,067 16,060 13.4% 114,217 15,464 13.5%
US 25,844 764,636 40,575 5.3% 735,792 39,014 5.3%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 19-Apr 12-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 3,047 178,972 23,660 13.2% 156,363 19,899 12.7%
ES 4,258 198,674 20,453 10.3% 166,831 17,209 10.3%
DE 2,018 145,742 4,642 3.2% 127,854 3,022 2.4%
FR 1,101 152,894 19,718 12.9% 120,633 14,393 11.9%
UK 5,850 120,067 16,060 13.4% 84,279 10,612 12.6%
US 25,844 764,636 40,575 5.3% 560,300 22,105 3.9%

Latest v one week ago - percentage increase

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 101.7% 100.1% 114.5% 103.9%
ES 102.2% 99.9% 119.1% 99.8%
DE 101.4% 100.9% 114.0% 134.8%
FR 100.7% 101.3% 126.7% 108.1%
UK 105.1% 98.8% 142.5% 106.2%
US 103.9% 100.1% 136.5% 134.5%



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