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Tuesday 24 March 2020

COVID-19 23rd March 2020


For the last 2 days we have seen new cases in Italy decline.  Let's hope that this is a sign that after 2 weeks of lockdown new infections are reducing.  However in Spain and France new cases have doubled (ES 3,272 - 6,368, FR 1,559 - 3,838) and Germany increased by 67% (DE 2,509 - 4,183) and in UK increased by nearly 50% (UK 665 - 967).

As predicted yesterday the UK government has now told everyone except for essential workers to stay at home except under strict conditions.

The UK is exactly where Italy was when they locked down on 8th March i.e. IT 6,387 cases and 366 deaths UK 6,650 cases and 335 deaths.

For anyone in any doubt about how serious this is and that the rest of Europe is following Italy take a look at this graph produced by John Burn-Murdoch of The Financial Times.

Click to enlarge

For those who think this is 'just the flu' be aware that this virus is far more contagious than the flu. The R0 factor (basic reproduction number) for flu is 1.3, current estimates for COVID-19 is 2 to 3. That means for every person infected they can infect 2 to 3 others who in turn can infect 2 to 3 others etc.

REALITY CHECK even with the low end number of 2, after only 5 cycles that one person could have been the seed for 65,536 cases (2; 4; 16; 256; 65,536; 4,294,967,296).  If each of the 65,536 infect 2 more people each then the number is a staggering 4.3 million!  The numbers after that don't even bare thinking about.  Of course things are quite as linear as that but it shows the impact if we don't socially distance.
Source Rachael Rettner Live Science - Viral Transmission

Daily 23-Mar 22 Mar (-1 Day)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 4,789 63,927 6,077 9.5% 59,138 5,476 9.3%
ES 6,368 35,136 2,311 6.6% 28,768 1,772 6.2%
DE 4,183 29,056 123 0.4% 24,873 94 0.4%
FR 3,838 19,856 860 4.3% 16,018 674 4.2%
UK 967 6,650 335 5.0% 5,683 281 4.9%

Weekly 23-Mar 16 Mar (-1 Week)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total

Cases
No.

Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 4,789 63,927 6,077 9.5% 27,980 2,158 7.7%
ES 6,368 35,136 2,311 6.6% 9,942 342 3.4%
DE 4,183 29,056 123 0.4% 7,272 17 0.2%
FR 3,838 19,856 860 4.3% 6,633 148 2.2%
UK 967 6,650 335 5.0% 1,543 55 3.6%
Daily Weekly
Country
Total

Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
Total

Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
IT 108.1% 102.7% 228.5% 123.3%
ES 122.1% 106.8% 353.4% 191.2%
DE 116.8% 112.0% 399.6% 181.1%
FR 124.0% 102.9% 299.4% 194.1%
UK 117.0% 101.9% 431.0% 141.3%

Source Worldometers


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