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Tuesday, 14 April 2020

COVID-19 14th April 2020


Summary

Today I have added a summary of an interesting graph published by Worldometers which shows the percentage rates of recovery versus death of closed cases. i.e. does not include active cases so these are real figures of all cases that have concluded in either death or full recovery.

US new cases reduce for 3rd day and 2nd day figures below 30,000.  Death rate remains around 1,500 (1,535).
Recovery v Death - no figures published but derived as 61% v 39% (see below)

Spain new cases reduce for 3rd day and are now well below half the 2nd peak on 1 Apr of 8,195 at 3,268. Deaths are also reducing from 961 at peak to 547.  Active case curve is now flattening and total cases shows signs of beginning to flatten.
Recovery v Death 78.47% v 21.53% recovery rate increasing

Italy had the 2nd lowest no of new cases since peak 21 Mar (6,557) of 3,153 (7 Apr 3,039). Their graphs don't look as promising as Spain's and don't show real signs of flattening as yet.
Recovery v Death 63.39% v 36.61% recovery rate increasing

France again is unpredictable as new cases rise by 1,251 after 2 days of decline
Recovery v Death 64.94% v 35.06% i.e. recovery rate reducing

Germany  had lowest no of new cases since 17 Mar (2,095) of 2,218 and their active cases are now 10,000 lower than the peak on 6 Apr. 
Recovery v Death 95.27% v 4.73% recovery rate increasing

UK new cases reduced by almost 1,000 (946) and lowest deaths for 7 days.
Recovery v Death - no figures published. derived 2.95% v 97.05% (see below)

UK Recovery Rate v Death Rate
The UK is the only country in the entire world (on Worldometers) NOT reporting recovery rate.  This made me suspicious so I've investigated.  It 'may' be because we are too early in the cycle to accurately report as cases have not yet run their full course.  

However, if you take total cases 88,621 minus active cases 76,948 then you must deduce that the difference is the number of cases concluded which is 11,673. If you then subtract the number of reported deaths (11,329) then that leaves ONLY 344 cases that have fully recovered.  

Can this be accurate? ... as that means the real death rate is 97% and recovery rate only 3%.  You have to assume (and hope!) that a large portion of the active cases have actually recovered but have not been reported as such for whatever reason - is this due to lack of testing? Incensed by this I have contacted several media organisations to ask the question of the government.

If I apply the same calculation to US who do not have a graph but have declared a figure for recovered cases of 36,948.
586,941 (total cases)  - 526,353 (active cases) = 60,588 concluded cases
60,588 concluded cases - 23,640 deaths = 36,948 recovered

36,948/60,588 = 61%
23,640/60,588 = 39%

To confirm my calculation I have applied it to the the figures for Spain
170,099 (total cases) - 87,616 (active cases) = 82,483 concluded cases
82,483 concluded cases - 17,756 (deaths) = 64,727 recovered
17,756/82,483 = 21.53%
64,727/82,483 = 78.47%
which matches exactly the figures reported so I am confident that the calculation is accurate.

UK Death Rates
There has been a lot of discussion in the media over the last few days regarding the high death rate in UK.  Also,  the fact that the figures reported only include those that died in hospital and not those elsewhere e.g. at home or in nursing homes etc.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has just published figures for the week ending 3rd Apr (11 days ago). (NB a new report is due to be published 16 Apr) At this point the UK had reported 3,605 COVID-19 deaths (on Worldometers) in hospitals.  According to ONS data (Section 7 Deaths registered by place of occurrence) for COVID-19 deaths:
Hospital deaths 3,716
Care Home: 217
Hospice: 33
Home: 136
Other communal establishments: 3
Elsewhere: 17

That results in 406 (approx. 10%) unreported COVID-19 deaths outside hospital.  If, therefore, we use the current death rate of reported cases (12.8%) then that would equate to potentially an additional 3,172 unreported cases based on these figures (i.e. 402 deaths (12.8%) from 3,172 cases). 
NOTE If I use the lower death rate prevailing on 3 Apr of 9.4% then then the number of potentially unreported cases actually increases from 3,172 to 4,320 (i.e. 406 / 9.4%).

If we project the calculation onto current figures then 10% of 10,616 deaths = 1,062 additional deaths and 8,296 unreported cases.

I accept that the projections above are conjecture (as we don't know for a fact that all cases were not reported or were not contracted from a reported case) and in fact the number of unreported COVID-19 cases is actually likely to be much bigger and we will never know the true figure without wider testing. Also, it has been reported (by a whistleblower) that doctors are not always recording death due to COVID-19 and may just record death due to influenza or pneumonia or some other cause as if they haven't already tested positive then presumably they will not 'waste' a test on a dead person.


Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country
New Cases
13 Apr
New Cases
12 Apr
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
13 Apr
 
Deaths
12 Apr
 
Death
Increase
IT 3,153 4,092 -939 566 431 135
ES 3,268 3,804 -536 547 603 -56
DE 2,281 2,402 -121 172 151 21
FR 4,188 2,937 1,251 574 561 13
UK 4,342 5,288 -946 713 741 -28
US 26,241 27,421 -1,180 1,536 1,527 9

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily 13-Apr 12-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 3,153 159,516 20,465 12.8% 156,363 19,899 12.7%
ES 3,268 170,099 17,756 10.4% 166,831 17,209 10.3%
DE 2,281 130,072 3,194 2.5% 127,854 3,022 2.4%
FR 4,188 136,779 14,967 10.9% 132,591 14,393 10.9%
UK 4,342 88,621 11,329 12.8% 84,279 10,616 12.6%
US 26,241 586,941 23,640 4.0% 560,300 22,104 3.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 13-Apr 06-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 3,153 159,516 20,465 12.8% 132,547 16,523 12.5%
ES 3,268 170,099 17,756 10.4% 136,675 13,341 9.8%
DE 2,281 130,072 3,194 2.5% 103,375 1,810 1.8%
FR 4,188 136,779 14,967 10.9% 98,010 8,911 9.1%
UK 4,342 88,621 11,329 12.8% 51,608 5,373 10.4%
US 26,241 586,941 23,640 4.0% 370,019 10,895 2.9%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 102.0% 100.8% 120.3% 102.9%
ES 102.0% 101.2% 124.5% 106.9%
DE 101.7% 103.9% 125.8% 140.2%
FR 103.2% 100.8% 139.6% 120.4%
UK 105.2% 101.5% 171.7% 122.8%
US 104.8% 102.1% 158.6% 136.8%


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