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Monday, 4 May 2020

COVID-19 4th May 2020


Summary

Very positive day as all countries had less new cases and deaths than previous day (2 May).

New
Cases
Change Deaths Change
Rec'ry
Rate
Death
Rate
IT 1,389 73.11% 174 36.7% 73.87% 26.13%  Inc.
ES 1,533 59.23% 164 59.4% 85.47% 14.53%  Inc.
DE 697 78.31% 54 71.1% 95.01% 4.99%  Inc.
FR 297 28.29% 135 81.8% 67.10% 32.90%  Red.
UK 4,339 90.28% 315 50.7% 1.19% 98.81%  Red.
US 27,348 91.94% 1,154 68.2% 72.21% 27.79%  Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases reduce by 511 (73.11%), deaths reduce by 300 (36.71%), active cases reduce by 525 and are now 7.46% below peak of 108,257.

ES - new cases reduce by 1,055 (59.23%), deaths reduce by 112 (59.42%), active cases reduce by 934 and are now 26.78% below peak of 100,106.

FR - new cases reduce by 753 (28.29%), deaths reduce by 30 (81.82%), active cases reduce by 60 and are now 2.47% below peak of 95,365

DE - new cases reduce by 193 (78.31%), deaths reduce by 22 (71.05%), active cases reduce by 957 and are now 61.3% below pek of 72,865.

US - new cases reduce by 2,396 (91.94%), deaths reduce by 537 (68.24%), active cases increase by 21,249 to 941,261.

UK - new cases reduce by 467 (90.28%), deaths reduce by 306 (50.72%), active cases increase.

UK Testing

OK it was a Sunday ... but the number of tests reduced significantly from 120,000 30 Apr to:
Data as of 5pm 2 May
No. Tests:               76,496
No. People Tested: 56,397 

Total Tests:               1,206,405
Total People Tested:    882,343

That's 2 consecutive days that they have dropped.  I find it 'interesting' that over 120,000 were declared for 30 Mar (to exceed the government target) yet the 2 following days they are well below the 120,000. The point wasn't to hit target to tick the box and then go backwards! 


Whilst were are discussing government figures, they have been displaying graphs claiming that the UK is over the peak.  These graphs depict hospital admissions only, which of course is a good sign, but new cases have been increasing consistently by between 3,500 and 6,200 and average 4,893 per day since 1 Apr and are likely to increase as testing increases.
  
This is almost triple ES new cases (and even more for DE, IT & FR) as can be seen from the tables on this page. Deaths have only been below 500 per day on 3 occasions since 1 Apr and have averaged 789 per day.  Personally, I believe that until we see new cases and deaths reduce significantly and consistently, then, and only then can it be claimed that we are over the peak.  

The key stats that are missing, that I have been reiterating consistently, is the no. of recovered cases from which we could see if the no. of active cases is increasing or reducing.  Simply subtracting deaths from total cases is not good enough as we don't know how many of the active cases have recovered and are therefor no longer active.  All other EU countries have active cases below their peak clearly indicating that active cases are reducing: DE -61.3%, ES -27%,  IT -7.5% and FR -2.5%.  These figures can't be calculated for UK as they are not reporting recovered cases - which makes me wonder why?  Could it be that the no. of recovered cases is relatively low so they don't wish to publish them?


Latest stats from Worldometers


Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

Total Active Conc. Recvd. Deaths Recvd% Death%
IT 210,717 100,179 110,538 81,654 28,884 73.87% 26.13%
ES 247,122 73,300 173,822 148,558 25,264 85.47% 14.53%
DE 165,664 28,198 137,466 130,600 6,866 95.01% 4.99%
FR 168,693 93,014 75,679 50,784 24,895 67.10% 32.90%
UK 186,599 157,809 28,790 344 28,446 1.19% 98.81%
US 1,188,122 941,261 246,861 178,263 68,598 72.21% 27.79%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country
New Cases
3 May
New Cases
2 May
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
3 May
 
Deaths
2 May
 
Death
Increase
IT 1,389 1,900 -511 174 474 -300
ES 1,533 2,588 -1,055 164 276 -112
DE 697 890 -193 54 76 -22
FR 297 1,050 -753 135 165 -30
UK 4,339 4,806 -467 315 621 -306
US 27,348 29,744 -2,396 1,154 1,691 -537

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily 03-May 02-May
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 1,389 210,717 28,884 13.7% 209,328 28,710 13.7%
ES 1,533 247,122 25,264 10.2% 245,567 25,100 10.2%
DE 697 165,664 6,866 4.1% 164,967 6,812 4.1%
FR 297 168,693 24,895 14.8% 168,396 24,760 14.7%
UK 4,339 186,599 28,446 15.2% 182,260 28,131 15.4%
US 27,348 1,188,122 68,598 5.8% 1,160,754 67,444 5.8%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 03-May 26-Apr
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 1,389 210,717 28,884 13.7% 197,675 26,644 13.5%
ES 1,533 247,122 25,264 10.2% 226,629 23,190 10.2%
DE 697 165,664 6,866 4.1% 157,770 5,976 3.8%
FR 297 168,693 24,895 14.8% 162,100 22,856 14.1%
UK 4,339 186,599 28,446 15.2% 152,840 24,055 15.7%
US 27,348 1,188,122 68,598 5.8% 987,160 55,412 5.6%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 100.7% 99.9% 106.6% 101.7%
ES 100.6% 100.0% 109.0% 99.9%
DE 100.4% 100.4% 105.0% 109.4%
FR 100.2% 100.4% 104.1% 104.7%
UK 102.4% 98.8% 122.1% 96.9%
US 102.4% 99.4% 120.4% 102.9%


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