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Monday 11 May 2020

COVID-19 11th May 2020


Summary

Global Figures

No %
Cases:         
4,194,047
Deaths:          
283,992 6.77%
Recovered: 
1,499,405 35.75%
Active: 2,410,650 57.48%

Russia cases has already overtaken UK & IT with 221,344
UK now has more cases than Italy.

The 5 countries with most infections are now:

Country Total Cases % of Global
US 1,367,963 32.58%
ES 264,663 6.30%
Russia 221,344 5.27%
UK 219,183 5.22%
IT 219,070 5.22%

New
Cases
Change Deaths Change
Rec'ry
Rate
Death
Rate
IT 802 74.05% 165 85.1% 77.49% 22.51%  Inc.
ES 1,880 70.52% 143 57.4% 86.89% 13.11%  Inc.
DE 555 75.41% 20 51.3% 95.02% 4.98%  Inc.
FR 312 53.89% 70 87.5% 68.06% 31.94%  Inc.
UK 3,923 100.69% 268 77.5% 1.07% 98.93%  Red.
US 20,329 80.50% 750 52.7% 76.04% 23.96%  Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases -281 (74.04%), deaths -29 (85.05%), active cases -1,518 (76.97% of peak)

ES - new cases -786 (70.52%), deaths -106 (57.43%), active cases -1,545 (61.91% of peak)

FR - new cases -267 (53.89%), deaths -10 (87.5%), active cases +63 (98.96 of peak)

DE - new cases -181 (75.41%), deaths -19 (51.28%), active cases -565 (27.32% of peak)

US - new cases -4,925 (80.5%), deaths -672 (52.74%), active cases +1,491 (100% of peak)
Lowest no of new cases since 29 Mar

UK - new cases +27 (100.69%), deaths -78 (77.46%), active cases +3,655 (100% of peak)

Well what can we say today? Boris Johnson relaxes lockdown measures and UK media in a storm about it this morning.  Johnson announces 5 tests that must be met before lockdown can be removed:

1/ Sufficient critical care capacity across UK
2/ Sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths
3/ Rate of infection decreasing (i.e. the R number)
4/ Testing & PPE able to meet demand
5/ Adjustment to measures will not risk a second peak that overwhelms the NHS

So what does this actually mean?
1/ enough beds / ventilators in intensive care
2/ reduction in no of people dying each day
3/ this is the controversial one as it does not necessarily mean the no of new cases it means the r factor below 1 - but how do they calculate this without rigorous contact tracing?
4/ Why is this bundled together?  Surely these should be separate i.e. Testing capacity sufficient and PPE capacity sufficient.
5/ This is just stating the obvious

I find it quite revealing that top of the list is NHS resources! Personally I would rearrange in order of priority as surely the priority should be reducing the no. of new cases and the rest will follow.  Fewer cases, fewer hospital admissions, less need for ITU and less deaths and all this underpinned by more tests and contact tracing and isolation when required.

If sufficient tests were carried out we would a/ know who had the virus, b/ be able to contact trace and test and isolate, c/ know if r is reducing.  This in turn 'should' reduce the no of new cases and deaths and reduce the no. of people requiring hospitalisation and ITU.  In all cases sufficient PPE should reduce the risk of infection of health workers.

1/ Sufficient testing capacity AND tests being conducted
2/ Rate of infection decreasing i.e. new cases reducing AND r reducing
3/ No of daily deaths reducing
4/ Sufficient PPE
5/ Sufficient capacity in ITU

Now let's test the measures:
New cases: 10 May 3,923, weekly average 4,655 monthly average 4,847.

New cases are currently 85% of weekly average and 80% of the monthly average.  Is this sufficient?  Spain has half this no of new cases (1,880) and the rest of EU (IT, FR & DE) all had less than 1,000 new cases. The latest weekly average for EU countries is ES 2,356, IT 1,676, FR 1,485, DE 888, all at least half, or well below half, the UK average cases.  

Deaths10 May 268, weekly average 485, monthly average 704

Deaths are 55% of weekly average and 38% monthly average
EU weekly averages ES 337, IT 239, FR212, DE 100

The figures are distorted as I pointed out yesterday from the UK death chart, deaths have been under reported each week at weekends and then increase. I strongly suspect that the no of deaths reported today may be twice the number reported for 10 May e.g. 600+ as this has been the consistent pattern for the last 6 weeks i.e. 2 low days for weekend then a doubling the next day which is probably due to a delay in reporting over the weekend.

I hardly think that govt. can claim that we have this under control (compared to the other major EU countries) and I fear that the latest 'ambiguous' message from PM will mean that people may assume that lockdown is over and cases will increase.  I certainly do not see figures now reducing with more people 'out and about' that's for sure.

What is r?

R is the reproduction factor.  It is termed R Zero or R nought.  At the beginning of the pandemic it was estimated that r was around 2.4 meaning that each infected person may transmit the infection to between 2 or 3 people.  It is now estimated that the figure is 5.7 for COVID-19.  This was alarming as it meant that if no measures were taken the virus would very quickly infect a very large proportion of the population, hence lockdown measures.  The government is reporting that r is between 0.5 and 0.9.  I have no idea how they have calculated this figure?  Perhaps it's calculated on no. of know infections as a percentage of total population? Even a rate of 1 is concerning as that means that every person infected spreads it to one other i.e. doubling.  The aim is to get r under 1 so that the virus spreads to less than 1 person per infected person and eventually dies out.

Latest stats from Worldometers


Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

Total Active Conc. Recvd. Deaths Recvd% Death%
IT 219,070 83,324 135,746 105,186 30,560 77.49% 22.51%
ES 264,663 61,603 203,060 176,439 26,621 86.89% 13.11%
DE 171,879 19,910 151,969 144,400 7,569 95.02% 4.98%
FR 176,970 94,373 82,597 56,217 26,380 68.06% 31.94%
UK 219,183 186,984 32,199 344 31,855 1.07% 98.93%
US 1,367,638 1,030,515 337,123 256,336 80,787 76.04% 23.96%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country
New Cases
10 May
New Cases
9 May
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
10 May
 
Deaths
9 May
 
Death
Increase
IT 802 1,083 -281 165 194 -29
ES 1,880 2,666 -786 143 249 -106
DE 555 736 -181 20 39 -19
FR 312 579 -267 70 80 -10
UK 3,923 3,896 27 268 346 -78
US 20,329 25,254 -4,925 750 1,422 -672

Latest v previous day - actuals

Day 10-May 09-May
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 802 219,070 30,560 13.9% 218,268 30,395 13.9%
ES 1,880 264,663 26,621 10.1% 262,783 26,478 10.1%
DE 555 171,879 7,569 4.4% 171,324 7,549 4.4%
FR 312 176,970 26,380 14.9% 176,658 26,310 14.9%
UK 3,923 219,183 31,855 14.5% 215,260 31,587 14.7%
US 20,329 1,367,638 80,787 5.9% 1,347,309 80,037 5.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Week 10-May 03-May
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 802 219,070 30,560 13.9% 210,717 28,884 13.7%
ES 1,880 264,663 26,621 10.1% 247,122 24,264 9.8%
DE 555 171,879 7,569 4.4% 165,664 6,866 4.1%
FR 312 176,970 26,380 14.9% 168,693 24,895 14.8%
UK 3,923 219,183 31,855 14.5% 186,599 28,466 15.3%
US 20,329 1,367,638 80,787 5.9% 1,188,122 68,597 5.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 100.4% 100.2% 104.0% 101.8%
ES 100.7% 99.8% 107.1% 102.4%
DE 100.3% 99.9% 103.8% 106.3%
FR 100.2% 100.1% 104.9% 101.0%
UK 101.8% 99.0% 117.5% 95.3%
US 101.5% 99.4% 115.1% 102.3%



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