Summary
Global Figures
No | % | |
Cases:
|
4,194,047 | |
Deaths:
|
283,992 | 6.77% |
Recovered:
|
1,499,405 | 35.75% |
Active: | 2,410,650 | 57.48% |
Russia cases has already overtaken UK & IT with 221,344
UK now has more cases than Italy.
The 5 countries with most infections are now:
Country | Total Cases | % of Global |
US | 1,367,963 | 32.58% |
ES | 264,663 | 6.30% |
Russia | 221,344 | 5.27% |
UK | 219,183 | 5.22% |
IT | 219,070 | 5.22% |
New
Cases
|
Change | Deaths | Change |
Rec'ry
Rate
|
Death
Rate
|
||
IT | 802 | 74.05% | 165 | 85.1% | 77.49% | 22.51% | Inc. |
ES | 1,880 | 70.52% | 143 | 57.4% | 86.89% | 13.11% | Inc. |
DE | 555 | 75.41% | 20 | 51.3% | 95.02% | 4.98% | Inc. |
FR | 312 | 53.89% | 70 | 87.5% | 68.06% | 31.94% | Inc. |
UK | 3,923 | 100.69% | 268 | 77.5% | 1.07% | 98.93% | Red. |
US | 20,329 | 80.50% | 750 | 52.7% | 76.04% | 23.96% | Inc. |
Commentary
IT - new cases -281 (74.04%), deaths -29 (85.05%), active cases -1,518 (76.97% of peak)
ES - new cases -786 (70.52%), deaths -106 (57.43%), active cases -1,545 (61.91% of peak)
FR - new cases -267 (53.89%), deaths -10 (87.5%), active cases +63 (98.96 of peak)
DE - new cases -181 (75.41%), deaths -19 (51.28%), active cases -565 (27.32% of peak)
US - new cases -4,925 (80.5%), deaths -672 (52.74%), active cases +1,491 (100% of peak)
Lowest no of new cases since 29 Mar
UK - new cases +27 (100.69%), deaths -78 (77.46%), active cases +3,655 (100% of peak)
Well what can we say today? Boris Johnson relaxes lockdown measures and UK media in a storm about it this morning. Johnson announces 5 tests that must be met before lockdown can be removed:
1/ Sufficient critical care capacity across UK
2/ Sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths
3/ Rate of infection decreasing (i.e. the R number)
4/ Testing & PPE able to meet demand
5/ Adjustment to measures will not risk a second peak that overwhelms the NHS
So what does this actually mean?
1/ enough beds / ventilators in intensive care
2/ reduction in no of people dying each day
3/ this is the controversial one as it does not necessarily mean the no of new cases it means the r factor below 1 - but how do they calculate this without rigorous contact tracing?
4/ Why is this bundled together? Surely these should be separate i.e. Testing capacity sufficient and PPE capacity sufficient.
5/ This is just stating the obvious
I find it quite revealing that top of the list is NHS resources! Personally I would rearrange in order of priority as surely the priority should be reducing the no. of new cases and the rest will follow. Fewer cases, fewer hospital admissions, less need for ITU and less deaths and all this underpinned by more tests and contact tracing and isolation when required.
If sufficient tests were carried out we would a/ know who had the virus, b/ be able to contact trace and test and isolate, c/ know if r is reducing. This in turn 'should' reduce the no of new cases and deaths and reduce the no. of people requiring hospitalisation and ITU. In all cases sufficient PPE should reduce the risk of infection of health workers.
1/ Sufficient testing capacity AND tests being conducted
2/ Rate of infection decreasing i.e. new cases reducing AND r reducing
3/ No of daily deaths reducing
4/ Sufficient PPE
5/ Sufficient capacity in ITU
Now let's test the measures:
New cases: 10 May 3,923, weekly average 4,655 monthly average 4,847.
New cases are currently 85% of weekly average and 80% of the monthly average. Is this sufficient? Spain has half this no of new cases (1,880) and the rest of EU (IT, FR & DE) all had less than 1,000 new cases. The latest weekly average for EU countries is ES 2,356, IT 1,676, FR 1,485, DE 888, all at least half, or well below half, the UK average cases.
Deaths: 10 May 268, weekly average 485, monthly average 704
Deaths are 55% of weekly average and 38% monthly average
EU weekly averages ES 337, IT 239, FR212, DE 100
The figures are distorted as I pointed out yesterday from the UK death chart, deaths have been under reported each week at weekends and then increase. I strongly suspect that the no of deaths reported today may be twice the number reported for 10 May e.g. 600+ as this has been the consistent pattern for the last 6 weeks i.e. 2 low days for weekend then a doubling the next day which is probably due to a delay in reporting over the weekend.
I hardly think that govt. can claim that we have this under control (compared to the other major EU countries) and I fear that the latest 'ambiguous' message from PM will mean that people may assume that lockdown is over and cases will increase. I certainly do not see figures now reducing with more people 'out and about' that's for sure.
What is r?
R is the reproduction factor. It is termed R Zero or R nought. At the beginning of the pandemic it was estimated that r was around 2.4 meaning that each infected person may transmit the infection to between 2 or 3 people. It is now estimated that the figure is 5.7 for COVID-19. This was alarming as it meant that if no measures were taken the virus would very quickly infect a very large proportion of the population, hence lockdown measures. The government is reporting that r is between 0.5 and 0.9. I have no idea how they have calculated this figure? Perhaps it's calculated on no. of know infections as a percentage of total population? Even a rate of 1 is concerning as that means that every person infected spreads it to one other i.e. doubling. The aim is to get r under 1 so that the virus spreads to less than 1 person per infected person and eventually dies out.
Latest stats from Worldometers
Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate
Total | Active | Conc. | Recvd. | Deaths | Recvd% | Death% | |
IT | 219,070 | 83,324 | 135,746 | 105,186 | 30,560 | 77.49% | 22.51% |
ES | 264,663 | 61,603 | 203,060 | 176,439 | 26,621 | 86.89% | 13.11% |
DE | 171,879 | 19,910 | 151,969 | 144,400 | 7,569 | 95.02% | 4.98% |
FR | 176,970 | 94,373 | 82,597 | 56,217 | 26,380 | 68.06% | 31.94% |
UK | 219,183 | 186,984 | 32,199 | 344 | 31,855 | 1.07% | 98.93% |
US | 1,367,638 | 1,030,515 | 337,123 | 256,336 | 80,787 | 76.04% | 23.96% |
Latest v previous day - increase / decrease
Country |
New Cases
10 May
|
New Cases
9 May
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
10 May
|
Deaths
9 May
|
Death
Increase
|
IT | 802 | 1,083 | -281 | 165 | 194 | -29 |
ES | 1,880 | 2,666 | -786 | 143 | 249 | -106 |
DE | 555 | 736 | -181 | 20 | 39 | -19 |
FR | 312 | 579 | -267 | 70 | 80 | -10 |
UK | 3,923 | 3,896 | 27 | 268 | 346 | -78 |
US | 20,329 | 25,254 | -4,925 | 750 | 1,422 | -672 |
Latest v previous day - actuals
Day | 10-May | 09-May | |||||
Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
IT | 802 | 219,070 | 30,560 | 13.9% | 218,268 | 30,395 | 13.9% |
ES | 1,880 | 264,663 | 26,621 | 10.1% | 262,783 | 26,478 | 10.1% |
DE | 555 | 171,879 | 7,569 | 4.4% | 171,324 | 7,549 | 4.4% |
FR | 312 | 176,970 | 26,380 | 14.9% | 176,658 | 26,310 | 14.9% |
UK | 3,923 | 219,183 | 31,855 | 14.5% | 215,260 | 31,587 | 14.7% |
US | 20,329 | 1,367,638 | 80,787 | 5.9% | 1,347,309 | 80,037 | 5.9% |
Latest v one week ago - actuals
Week | 10-May | 03-May | |||||
Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
IT | 802 | 219,070 | 30,560 | 13.9% | 210,717 | 28,884 | 13.7% |
ES | 1,880 | 264,663 | 26,621 | 10.1% | 247,122 | 24,264 | 9.8% |
DE | 555 | 171,879 | 7,569 | 4.4% | 165,664 | 6,866 | 4.1% |
FR | 312 | 176,970 | 26,380 | 14.9% | 168,693 | 24,895 | 14.8% |
UK | 3,923 | 219,183 | 31,855 | 14.5% | 186,599 | 28,466 | 15.3% |
US | 20,329 | 1,367,638 | 80,787 | 5.9% | 1,188,122 | 68,597 | 5.8% |
Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase
Daily | Weekly | |||
Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
IT | 100.4% | 100.2% | 104.0% | 101.8% |
ES | 100.7% | 99.8% | 107.1% | 102.4% |
DE | 100.3% | 99.9% | 103.8% | 106.3% |
FR | 100.2% | 100.1% | 104.9% | 101.0% |
UK | 101.8% | 99.0% | 117.5% | 95.3% |
US | 101.5% | 99.4% | 115.1% | 102.3% |
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