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Tuesday, 7 April 2020

COVID-19 7th April 2020


Summary

The critical news today is that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to intensive care unit at St Thomas's Hospital at 7pm last night after his COVID-19 symptoms worsened and we all wish him well for a speedy recovery.

In Italy new cases have dropped below 4,000 (3,599) for the first day since the peak of 6,557 on 21 Mar.

US new cases rise again by 5,015 (30,331) after yesterday's drop to 25,316.

New cases in Spain drop to their lowest since 23 Mar but still remain over 5,000 per day.

New cases in Germany drop to their lowest (3,252) since 23 Mar.

In France new cases have risen by 2,886 on yesterday.

In UK, thankfully, new cases are down by 2,101 (3,802) from yesterday's high (5,903) and deaths are also lower by 182.  UK is at day 14 of the government lockdown so let us hope that yesterday's high was the peak.

As predicted on 31Mar, UK total cases are now over 50,000 (51,608), 6 days after they hit 25,000 exactly in line with Italy's trajectory.  
IT: 24,747 on 15 Mar 53,578 on 21 Mar 
UK: 25,150 on 31 Mar 51,608 on 6 Apr

The next 'milestones' to watch out for are 75,000 in approx 4/5 days (10/11 Apr) and 100,000 in 9 days (15 Apr).  In all likelihood, I suspect that this time next week UK will be approaching 100,000 cases in line with Germany, Spain, Italy and France.

DE increased from 62,435 to100,123 in one week
ES increased from 49,515 to 104,118 in one week
IT increased from 59,138 to 97,689 in one week
FR have increased from 44,550 to 98,010 in the last week


Latest stats from Worldometers


Latest v one day ago - increase/decrease

Country
New Cases
6 Apr
New Cases
5 Apr
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
6 Apr
 
Deaths
5 Apr
 
Death
Increase
IT 3,599 4,316 -717 636 525 111
ES 5,029 5,478 -449 700 694 6
DE 3,252 4,031 -779 226 140 86
FR 5,171 2,886 2,285 833 518 315
UK 3,802 5,903 -2,101 439 621 -182
US 30,331 25,316 5,015 1,255 1164 91

Latest v one day ago - actuals

Daily 06-Apr 05-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 3,599 132,547 16,523 12.5% 128,948 15,887 12.3%
ES 5,029 136,675 13,341 9.8% 131,646 12,641 9.6%
DE 3,252 103,375 1,810 1.8% 100,123 1,584 1.6%
FR 5,171 98,010 8,911 9.1% 92,839 8,078 8.7%
UK 3,802 51,608 5,373 10.4% 47,806 4,934 10.3%
US 30,331 367,004 10,871 3.0% 336,673 9,616 2.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 06-Apr 30-Mar
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 3,599 132,547 16,523 12.5% 101,739 11,591 11.4%
ES 5,029 136,675 13,341 9.8% 87,956 7,716 8.8%
DE 3,252 103,375 1,810 1.8% 66,885 645 1.0%
FR 5,171 98,010 8,911 9.1% 44,550 3,523 7.9%
UK 3,802 51,608 5,373 10.4% 22,141 1,408 6.4%
US 30,331 367,004 10,871 3.0% 163,788 3,141 1.9%

Latest v one week ago - increase percentage

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 102.8% 101.2% 130.3% 109.4%
ES 103.8% 101.7% 155.4% 111.3%
DE 103.2% 110.7% 154.6% 181.6%
FR 105.6% 104.5% 220.0% 115.0%
UK 108.0% 100.9% 233.1% 163.7%
US 109.0% 103.7% 224.1% 154.5%



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