COVID-19 22nd Aril

Summary

Daily deaths increased in all countries from previous day, UK and US worst affected.

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	2,729	+20.97%	534	+15.0%	67.52%	32.48%	Increasing
ES	3,968	+158.33%	430	+7.2%	79.50%	20.50%	Increasing
DE	1,388	+4.91%	224	+1.8%	94.93%	5.07%	Reducing
FR	2,667	+7.15%	540	+0.4%	65.33%	34.67%	Increasing
UK	4,301	-8.02%	828	+45.8%	1.95%	98.05%	Reducing
US	25,985	-7.60%	2,804	+30.8%	64.66%	35.34%	Reducing

Commentary

US - new cases fall by 1,138 (25,958) the lowest since 31 Mar (25,079) but remain above 25,000 and no. of deaths is highest reported to date at 2,804.  Recovery Rate is reduced from yesterday.

ES - new cases rose by 2,432 (158.33%) and deaths up 31.  Recovery Rate is increasing from yesterday.

IT - new cases up 473 and deaths up 80 but active cases reduced for 2nd day and Recovery Rate is increasing.

FR - news cases increased 178 and deaths by 2 and there are signs that active case curve is flattening 95,328 16 Apr v 98,073. 21 Apr i.e. less than 3,000 (2,745)  in 5 days (550 per day). Recovery Rate is increasing from yesterday.

DE - new cases up 65 and deaths up 4. Active Cases continue to reduce from 72,865 6 Apr to 48,167 21 Apr - a reduction of 24,695 (33%) from peak.  Recovery Rate is reduced from yesterday.

UK - new cases reduce by 375 but deaths increase by 379 to 828 the 8th day in the last 14 that deaths have been over 800. To put this in perspective Italy has only exceeded 800 deaths on 4 days so far, Spain on 6, France on 8 and Germany has never had as many deaths and have only exceeded 300 on 4 days.

On the subject of reported deaths, the ONS has published its latest statistics yesterday which have been all over the media.  Let's put them into perspective.  Firstly these figures show all registered deaths up to 10th April 2020 (Good Friday) so are 12 days out of date.

The 2nd column below holds the figures of 10 April. Today's death figure on Worldometer as of 21st April 2020 is 17,337, therefore, in the 3rd column, I have simply doubled the figure of 10 April as we know hosital deaths are 17,337 and as you can see doubling 8,673 hospital deaths on 10th Apr gives us almost exactly the number of hospital deaths reported on 21st Apr, therefore is it safe to assume that the other numbers may have also doubled? - which would provide a total of 20,670.  When the figures were last provided on 3 Apr (reported on this blog on 14 Mar and ONS direct) the number of care home deaths was 217 3 Apr v 1,043 on 10 Apr - almost a 5 fold increase in just one week

ONS reported deaths 10 Apr 2020

Place of death	10 Apr	Doubled
Home	466	932
Hospital	8,673	17,346
Hospice	87	174
Care Home	1,043	2,086
Other communal	21	42
Elsewhere	45	90
	10,335	20,670

The Financial Times have quoted a figure of 41,000 UK deaths based on their analysis and extrapolation of the excess deaths over the expected average at this time of year from the figures provided by ONS.

The FT provides excellent COVID-19 coverage with graphs and also John Burn-Murdoch's twitter feed.

Latest Stats from Worldometers


Latest v previous day - Recovery Rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	183,597	107,709	75,888	51,240	24,648	67.52%	32.48%
ES	204,178	100,382	103,796	82,514	21,282	79.50%	20.50%
DE	148,453	48,167	100,286	95,200	5,086	94.93%	5.07%
FR	158,050	98,073	59,977	39,181	20,796	65.33%	34.67%
UK	129,044	111,363	17,681	344	17,337	1.95%	98.05%
US	818,744	690,503	128,241	82,923	45,318	64.66%	35.34%

Latest v previous date - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 21 Apr	New Cases 20 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 21 Apr	Deaths 20 Apr	Death Increase
IT	2,729	2,256	473	534	454	80
ES	3,968	1,536	2,432	430	399	31
DE	1,388	1,323	65	224	220	4
FR	2,667	2,489	178	540	538	2
UK	4,301	4,676	-375	828	449	379
US	25,985	28,123	-2,138	2,804	1,939	865

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	21-Apr				20-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	2,729	183,597	24,648	13.4%	181,228	24,114	13.3%
ES	3,968	204,178	21,282	10.4%	200,210	20,852	10.4%
DE	1,388	148,453	5,086	3.4%	147,065	4,862	3.3%
FR	2,667	158,050	20,796	13.2%	155,383	20,256	13.0%
UK	4,301	129,044	17,337	13.4%	124,743	16,509	13.2%
US	25,985	818,744	45,318	5.5%	792,759	42,514	5.4%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	21-Apr				14-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	2,729	183,597	24,648	13.4%	162,488	21,067	13.0%
ES	3,968	204,178	21,282	10.4%	174,060	18,255	10.5%
DE	1,388	148,453	5,086	3.4%	132,210	3,495	2.6%
FR	2,667	158,050	20,796	13.2%	130,253	15,729	12.1%
UK	4,301	129,044	17,337	13.4%	93,873	12,107	12.9%
US	25,985	818,744	45,318	5.5%	617,661	29,825	4.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	101.3%	100.9%	113.0%	103.5%
ES	102.0%	100.1%	117.3%	99.4%
DE	100.9%	103.6%	112.3%	129.6%
FR	101.7%	100.9%	121.3%	109.0%
UK	103.4%	101.5%	137.5%	104.2%
US	103.3%	103.2%	132.6%	114.6%