COVID-19 18th March 2020

COVID-19 18th March 2020

I thought it appropriate at this time to discuss what is currently on most peoples mind i.e. coronavirus or COVID-19.

I have been monitoring the situation via Worldometer for the last month and became increasingly concerned around the 2nd March 2020 when the number of cases in Italy began to increase rapidly and were doubling every 3 days and then a week / 10 days later when cases in Germany, France & Spain began to mirror what was happening in Italy.

On 2nd Mar the number of cases in Italy was 2,036 and just over 2 weeks later on 17th Mar the number of cases is 31,506 ... thats almost a 15 fold increase!  The good news is that for the last few days the number of new cases seems to be stabilising at around 3,000-3,500 cases per day, so hopefully soon, with the imposed lockdown, we 'should' see new daily cases begin to decline.

Cases in Spain, Germany and France appear to be trailing Italy by around a week. The date in brackets is when Italy had these figures.

ES 11,826 (10th/11th Mar)

DE 9,367 (9th Mar)

FR 7,730 (8th Mar)

The UK government has been criticised for being too slow to respond and as of 16th March it has 'advised' the population to 'socially distance' or 'self-quarantine' where applicable as cases exceed 1,000.  In 3 days since 14th Mar UK cases have increased from 1,140 to 1,950 on 17th Mar.  Not quite doubling yet but not far off.  This is approximately where Italy was on 2nd Mar, so UK may be trailing Italy by 2 weeks.  Whilst many think the UK goverment has been slow to respond I believe that we are slightly further  ahead of the curve than the rest of Europe as action is being taken whilst figures are still relatively low.  It remains to be seen whether the population will adhere to government advice or whether the government will have to impose a lockdown like Italy, Spain & France.

The biggest critcism in UK at present is the low numbers of tests being carried out which may suggest that the number of cases is much higher than being reported.

New cases in China have flat-lined from 1st Mar 80,026 to 80,894 on 17th Mar so just 868 new cases in the last 17 days and only 13 new cases reported on 17th Mar.  Also, of the 80,894 cases, 69,614 (86%) have fully recovered leaving only 8,043 active cases.  Therefore, it would appear that China has peaked (after 5/6 weeks) and cases are significantly declining.  Let's hope that complacency doesn't set in and we have another outbreak.  And let's also hope that other countries follow this trajectory and cases start declining after 5/6 weeks.