COVID-19 19th March 2020

The latest figures from major European countries looks concerning - all 5 countries have seen the highest number of new cases.  

After stating yesterday that Italy cases seemed to be stabilising they have increased again yesterday to 4,207 new cases reported up from 3,526 on 17th.

The more worrying trend from Italy is that they have only 245 deaths fewer than China (3,245 v 2,978) with less than half the of the cases (80,928 v 35,713). 475 new deaths reported on 18th.

Germany saw a spike of 2,960 new cases (up 865 from 17th), their highest to date and it looks like their figures reported on Worldometer are being updated in real time as so far today there are a further 756 new cases.

Spain reported 2,943 up 1,089 from 17th (1,884), they also seem to be reporting in real-time as another 245 already reported today.

France has 1,404 new cases up just over 300 from 17th Mar.

UK reported 676 new cases the highest number of new cases reported to date up from 407 on 17th Mar.

The UK have announced that all schools will close after Friday 20th Mar indefinately.

The table below shows latest figures for Total Case, No Deaths, Death Rate versus one week ago.

IT	35,713	2,978	8.4%	/	12,462	827	6.63%
ES	14,769	638	4.3%	/	2,277	55	2.4%
DE	12,327	28	0.002%	/	1,966	3	0.001%
FR	9,134	264	2.9%	/	2,281	48	2.1%
UK	2,626	104	4%	/	460	8	1.74%

From the table above it is very stark the difference in the death rate in Germany which is less than a quarter of one percent whist other countries are 3%-4% and Italy 8.4%.  What are Germany doing to keep the death rate so low?  Italy has the oldest population in the world after Japan, yet Japan's death rate is 3.5% (32 / 923) and Italy has one of the best health services in the world.

The following table shows the rate of increase of total cases and deaths. Whilst, apart from Germany, the UK currently has the lowest number of deaths the number has increased by the highest rate in a week i.e. 13 fold increase from 8 to 104.

IT	2.87	3.6
ES	6.49	11.6
DE	6.27	9.3
FR	4	5.5
UK	5.76	13

It seems that panic buying is increasing in UK and supermarket shelves are bare.  I think if this anti-social behaviour continues it will only be a matter fo time before there is a complete lockdown in the UK.  Already the UK government have announced that 20,000 army troops are being engaged ... perahps put them outside supermarkets as it's only a matter of time before there will be fighting!