COVID-19 13th May 2020

Summary

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	1,402	188.44%	172	96.1%	77.91%	22.09%	Inc.
ES	1,377	39.57%	176	143.1%	87.02%	12.98%	Inc.
DE	595	85.37%	122	132.6%	94.98%	5.02%	Red.
FR	802	177.04%	348	132.3%	68.16%	31.84%	Inc.
UK	3,403	87.77%	627	298.6%	1.04%	98.96%	Red.
US	22,802	125.31%	1,630	161.7%	78.06%	21.94%	Inc.

Commentary

Brazil is now moved ahead of Germany with 177,602 cases with a death rate of 6.98%.

Russia continues to have over 10,000 cases per day for the 10th consecutive day, however the no. of deaths so far is still relatively low at  2,116 (less than 1% of total cases) with the highest reported to date of 107.

IT - new cases +658 (188.44%), deaths -7 (96.09%), active cases -1,222 (75.06% of peak)

ES - new cases -2,103 (39.57%), deaths +53 (153.09%), active cases -1,423 (62.44% of peak)

FR - new cases +349 (177.04%), deaths +85 (132.32%), active cases -607 (97.99% of peak)

DE - new cases -102 (85.37%), deaths +30 (132.61%), active cases -1,065 (25.02% of peak)

Germany now has 25% of active cases from peak on 6 Apr (a 75% reduction in just over a month) and are now at levels they were on 19/20 Mar. 

US - new cases +4,606 (125.31%), deaths +622 (161.71%), active cases -13,349 (98.72% of peak).

Even though new cases and deaths increase US shows first sign that active cases are declining.

UK - new cases -474 (87.77%), deaths +417 (298.57%), active cases +2,776 (100% of peak)

UK deaths increase as non-hospital deaths are reported each Tuesday.  It is claimed that there are 51,000 'excess' deaths above the average expected death rate for this time of year.  This is based on ONS data reported by Financial Times and The Independent.

It is impossible to socially distance on public transport, be that train, plane or bus and also impossible to sanitise adequately (apart from a plane) between journeys as buses and trains are in constant use.  

A quick calculation: A normal underground train's capacity is 6 people per square meter.  If a carriage holds 124 people then to socially distance at 2m the maximum capacity must be 0.5 per sqM i.e. 1 person per 2 sqM which is a reduction of 0.083 = 10 (124 * 0.83), so if you are in carriage with more than 10 people you are not adequately socially distanced.

Even a taxi is not safe unless it's a black cab where driver is separated from passengers and driver sanitises vehicle after each trip.  So it astonishes me how many are risking their health travelling on public transport.  The 'r' number may be below 1 now but how anyone can imagine that it will stay below 1 when people are crammed on public transport is inconceivable.  

The average weekly new cases has reduced by about 25% in the last week from 4,341 to 3,265.  It will be interesting to see the figures in a week or two.  I understand that many need to work to provide for their family, but they won't be any use to their family if they are sick, in hospital or worse.  The virus is invisible and does not discriminate. Employers may do everything to provide a safe environment but it will be the commuting on public transport that is the major risk.

Is this a government social experiment? Have they rekindled their herd immunity strategy?  I personally think it is total irresponsible to 'encourage' people to go back to work if you have to use public transport. Whilst they have 'advised' not to, this is not enough, they should ban the use of public transport unless safety can be guaranteed as I believe this is where a new epidemic could be started.  The Transport Minister Grant Shapps this morning when interviewed seems to think that by encouraging people to walk, cycle or drive to work will reduce numbers using public transport.  He seems to think the whole country lives and works in London.  If you work in London but live outside M25 you can't walk or cycle and probably can't drive as there will be nowhere to park, never mind the traffic congestion.

The media is having a field day tearing to pieces the government's latest 'advice'.  The economy is gravely in risk with a 2% reduction in 1st quarter which only had one week of lockdown - the last week of March.  I believe the government is more concerned about the next quarters result which will be significantly worse which is why they are 'encouraging' people to return to work.  

They got it wrong at the start by delaying lockdown, having insufficient testing and PPE (which they were warned about in the Cygnus report in 2016).  They knew in advance that the worst affected in Italy were the elderly yet still care homes are not adequately catered for by PPE or testing.  Perhaps this can be 'forgiven' for being unprepared for the unknown, but what is not forgivable is the early release of lockdown when we are still the worst affected country in Europe and arguably the world as whilst not as many cases as some we have the highest no of deaths and up until Russia and Brazil escalation (apart from US) the highest no of daily new cases.  

They claim they are following the science and the 'r' number but I'd like to know how they are calculating the 'r' number.  I know what it means but I don't now how it is calculated and therefore cannot verify it so have only got their word for it ... and this government is not beyond trying to 'blind sde' us with ambiguous numbers now are they think 100,000 tests by end of April which they have only met one day since and failed again to meet yesterday (85,293), no. of new nurses and no. of new hospitals.  We have given them the benefit of the doubt so far but this is potentially a monumental error which could result in harsher lockdown and worse affects to the economy in my view.

My partner works in a school and is back at work today but with no children.  What concerns me is that they open schools again.  Whilst the children themselves are low risk, what about transmission to school staff, their families and onwards if members of the family are also out to work? What about infected children spreading it to other children who take it home and spread to their family? I do not believe it is the interest of the children they are thinking about but the 'child care' so that people can return to work.  With the best will in the world younger children cannot be socially isolated at school.  Opening schools again too early would be a huge mistake. 

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	221,216	81,266	139,950	109,039	30,911	77.91%	22.09%
ES	269,520	62,130	207,390	180,470	26,920	87.02%	12.98%
DE	173,171	18,233	154,938	147,155	7,783	94.98%	5.02%
FR	178,225	93,449	84,776	57,785	26,991	68.16%	31.84%
UK	226,463	193,427	33,036	344	32,692	1.04%	98.96%
US	1,408,636	1,028,465	380,171	296,746	83,425	78.06%	21.94%

Removing UK from above stats (as figures are not accurate as recovered cases are not being recorded) gives an average Recovery Rate of 81.24% and a Death Rate of 18.77%.  I ask you would you take these odds? i.e. an almost 20% risk of death if you contract the virus?   That then begs the question of what is the risk of catching the virus - currently 1/3 of 1% (0.0033%) of the population have been infected - so arguably 18.77% of 0.0033% = 0.0006%.  So the risk is pretty low - but would you want to be one of the unfortunates in intensive care on a ventilator for 3 or 4 weeks with only 50% chance of survival?

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 12 May	New Cases 11 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 12 May	Deaths 11 May	Death Increase
IT	1,402	744	658	172	179	-7
ES	1,377	3,480	-2,103	176	123	53
DE	595	697	-102	122	92	30
FR	802	453	349	348	263	85
UK	3,403	3,877	-474	627	210	417
US	22,802	18,196	4,606	1,630	1,008	622

Latest v previous day - actuals

Day	12-May				11-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,402	221,216	30,911	14.0%	219,814	30,739	14.0%
ES	1,377	269,520	26,920	10.0%	268,143	26,744	10.0%
DE	595	173,171	7,783	4.5%	172,576	7,661	4.4%
FR	802	178,225	26,991	15.1%	177,423	26,643	15.0%
UK	3,403	226,463	32,692	14.4%	223,060	32,065	14.4%
US	22,802	1,408,636	83,425	5.9%	1,385,834	81,795	5.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Week	12-May				05-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,402	221,216	30,911	14.0%	213,013	29,315	13.8%
ES	1,377	269,520	26,920	10.0%	250,561	25,613	10.2%
DE	595	173,171	7,783	4.5%	167,007	6,993	4.2%
FR	802	178,225	26,991	15.1%	170,551	25,531	15.0%
UK	3,403	226,463	32,692	14.4%	194,990	29,427	15.1%
US	22,802	1,408,636	83,425	5.9%	1,237,663	72,271	5.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.6%	99.9%	103.9%	101.5%
ES	100.5%	100.1%	107.6%	97.7%
DE	100.3%	101.2%	103.7%	107.3%
FR	100.5%	100.9%	104.5%	101.2%
UK	101.5%	100.4%	116.1%	95.7%
US	101.6%	100.3%	113.8%	101.4%