Summary
All countries had an increase in new case and all but UK & FR had an increase in deaths from previous day.
Worldometers for some reason has stopped publishing Active Cases chart.
The other major story is that Russia has started to see a steep increase in new cases in the last 5 days and has seen over 50,000 new cases since 1 May.
New
Cases
|
Change | Deaths | Change |
Rec'ry
Rate
|
Death
Rate
|
||
| IT | 1,444 | 134.33% | 369 | 156.4% | 75.85% | 24.15% | Inc. |
| ES | 3,121 | 138.10% | 244 | 131.9% | 86.04% | 13.96% | Inc. |
| DE | 1,155 | 135.09% | 282 | 282% | 95.06% | 4.94% | Inc. |
| FR | 3,640 | 334.25% | 278 | 84.2% | 67.65% | 32.35% | Inc. |
| UK | 6,111 | 138.70% | 649 | 93.7% | 0.83% | 99.17% | Red. |
| US | 25,459 | 106.98% | 2,528 | 107.6% | 74.01% | 25.99% | Red. |
Commentary
IT - new cases +369 (134.33%) deaths +133 (156.4%), active cases -8,013 (84.55% of peak)
ES - new cases +861 (138.10%), deaths +59 (131.9%), active cases -3,124 (68.8% of peak)
FR - new cases +2,551 (334.25%), deaths -52 (84.2%), active cases +1,680 ( 98.99% of peak)
DE - new cases +300 (135.09%), deaths +282 (282%), active cases -5,536 (28.8% of peak)
US - new cases +1,661 (106.98%), deaths +178 (107.57%), active cases +21,678
UK - new cases +1,705 (138.7%), deaths -44 (93.7%), active cases ?
UK now has over 200,000 cases and over 30,000 deaths and has averaged 5,113 new cases and 568 deaths per day in the last 7 days. To put this in context with the rest of EU the closest country to these figures is IT with average 1,552 new cases and 286 deaths per day i.e. more that 3 times more new cases and almost double no. of deaths.
If we look at the growth of total no. of cases, UK is now 10 days ahead of Italy's trajectory.
IT - 97,689 29 Mar 201,505 28 Apr - 33 days
UK - 98,476 15 Apr 201,101 6 May - 23 days
It still bewilders (and concerns) me where all these new cases are originating from 44 days into lockdown? I 'presume' it must be front-line workers that are infected?
UK has seen 35,789 new cases in the last week (and almost 150,000 (149,402) in last month since 6 Apr - 2 weeks after lockdown - an average of 4,980 per day). Is it even possible to contact trace this number of cases? If each of these 35,789 in last week alone have been in contact with just 3 other people that's over 100,000 people who need to be tested, and then what about the people these contacts have been in contact with if they test positive?
Whilst on the subject of testing, here are the figures since the 100,000 target was 'met' on 30 Apr: (Note testing figure are always 1 day behind so no figures available for 6 May yet)
| Daily | Cumulative | |||
| No. Tests |
People
Tested
|
No. Tests |
People
Tested
|
|
| 01-May | 105,937 | 63,667 | 1,129,907 | 825,946 |
| 02-May | 76,496 | 56,397 | 1,206,405 | 882,343 |
| 03-May | 85,186 | 62,956 | 1,291,591 | 945,299 |
| 04-May | 84,806 | 69,839 | 1,383,842 | 1,015,138 |
| 05-May | 69,463 | 57,006 | 1,448,010 | 1,072,144 |
As can been seen from the figures above, the UK has consistently seen around 5,000 new cases per day for the last month so I cannot conceivably see how the government can relax lockdown until these numbers significantly reduce and testing is significantly increased.
Latest stats from Worldometers
Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate
| Total | Active | Conc. | Recvd. | Deaths | Recvd% | Death% | |
| IT | 214,457 | 91,528 | 122,929 | 93,245 | 29,684 | 75.85% | 24.15% |
| ES | 253,682 | 68,466 | 185,216 | 159,359 | 25,857 | 86.04% | 13.96% |
| DE | 168,162 | 20,987 | 147,175 | 139,900 | 7,275 | 95.06% | 4.94% |
| FR | 174,191 | 94,410 | 79,781 | 53,972 | 25,809 | 67.65% | 32.35% |
| UK | 201,010 | 170,681 | 30,329 | 253 | 30,076 | 0.83% | 99.17% |
| US | 1,263,092 | 975,306 | 287,786 | 212,987 | 74,799 | 74.01% | 25.99% |
Latest v previous day - increase / decrease
| Country |
New Cases
6 May
|
New Cases
5 May
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
6 May
|
Deaths
5 May
|
Death
Increase
|
| IT | 1,444 | 1,075 | 369 | 369 | 236 | 133 |
| ES | 3,121 | 2,260 | 861 | 244 | 185 | 59 |
| DE | 1,155 | 855 | 300 | 282 | 0 | 282 |
| FR | 3,640 | 1,089 | 2,551 | 278 | 330 | -52 |
| UK | 6,111 | 4,406 | 1,705 | 649 | 693 | -44 |
| US | 25,459 | 23,798 | 1,661 | 2,528 | 2,350 | 178 |
Latest v previous day - actuals
| Daily | 06-May | 05-May | |||||
| Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
| IT | 1,444 | 214,457 | 29,684 | 13.8% | 213,013 | 29,315 | 13.8% |
| ES | 3,121 | 253,682 | 25,857 | 10.2% | 250,561 | 25,613 | 10.2% |
| DE | 1,155 | 168,162 | 7,275 | 4.3% | 167,007 | 6,993 | 4.2% |
| FR | 3,640 | 174,191 | 25,809 | 14.8% | 170,551 | 25,531 | 15.0% |
| UK | 6,111 | 201,010 | 30,076 | 15.0% | 195,990 | 29,427 | 15.0% |
| US | 25,459 | 1,263,092 | 74,799 | 5.9% | 1,212,835 | 72,271 | 6.0% |
Latest v one week ago - actuals
| Weekly | 06-May | 29-Apr | |||||
| Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
| IT | 1,444 | 214,457 | 29,684 | 13.8% | 203,591 | 27,682 | 13.6% |
| ES | 3,121 | 253,682 | 25,857 | 10.2% | 236,899 | 24,275 | 10.2% |
| DE | 1,155 | 168,162 | 7,275 | 4.3% | 161,539 | 6,467 | 4.0% |
| FR | 3,640 | 174,191 | 25,809 | 14.8% | 166,420 | 24,087 | 14.5% |
| UK | 6,111 | 201,010 | 30,076 | 15.0% | 165,221 | 26,097 | 15.8% |
| US | 25,459 | 1,263,092 | 74,799 | 5.9% | 1,064,194 | 62,655 | 5.9% |
Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase
| Daily | Weekly | |||
| Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
| IT | 100.7% | 100.6% | 105.3% | 101.8% |
| ES | 101.2% | 99.7% | 107.1% | 99.5% |
| DE | 100.7% | 103.3% | 104.1% | 108.1% |
| FR | 102.1% | 99.0% | 104.7% | 102.4% |
| UK | 102.6% | 99.7% | 121.7% | 94.7% |
| US | 104.1% | 99.4% | 118.7% | 100.6% |
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