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Wednesday, 6 May 2020

COVID-19 6th May 2020


Summary

No deaths reported in Germany and their active cases are now 63.6% below peal of 6 Apr.

UK now has highest death rate in EU 29,427 (15% of total cases) second only to US 72,271 (6% of total cases).

Only Italy & US saw new cases reduce and UK continues to have double the cases of the nearest EU country.

All countries Recovery Rate increased.  UK now appears to be updating active cases with recovered cases so hopeful we will now start to see the Recovery Rate percentage increase.

New
Cases
Change Deaths Change
Rec'ry
Rate
Death
Rate
IT 1,075 88.04% 236 121.0% 74.17% 25.83%  Inc.
ES 2,260 191.69% 185 112.8% 85.69% 14.31%  Inc.
DE 855 175.20% 0 0.0% 95.02% 4.98%  Inc.
FR 1,089 141.61% 330 107.8% 67.19% 32.81%  Inc.
UK 4,406 110.56% 693 240.6% 14.65% 85.35%  Inc.
US 23,798 96.30% 2,350 177.6% 74.55% 25.45%  Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases -146, deaths +41, active cases -746 (91.94% of peak)

ES - new cases +1,081, deaths +21, active cases -1,335 (71.94% of peak)

FR - new cases +769, deaths +24, active cases -262 (97.24% of peak)

DE - new cases +367, deaths -127, active cases -1,414 (36.3% of peak)

US - new cases -915, deaths +1,027, active cases +14,907 (at peak and rising)

UK - new cases +421, deaths +405, active cases +3,811 (at peak and rising)

As I predicted weeks ago UK now has  the highest death rate in EU and will probably exceed 200,000 cases tomorrow at current rates (4,000+).

UK cases have now accelerated 4 days ahead of Italy's trajectory.
IT -  from 152,271 cases 11 Apr to 195,351 cases 24 Apr i.e. 13 days 25,969  deaths 
UK - from 152,840 cases 26 Apr to 194,990 cases  5 May i.e. 9 days  29,427 deaths

I know it's easy to criticise with hindsight but yesterday a further 3,000+ deaths were announced in care homes.  We knew in advance (at least 3 weeks) that Italy's elderly population were the ones most vulnerable and accounted for the most early deaths, so why is it only now that UK government is taking seriously what is happening to our elderly in care homes?  Insufficient testing and PPE - it's a disgrace. I have a 92 year old mother in law who thankfully is not in a care home but needs daily assistance so know how vulnerable the very poorly paid care assistants must be.  Quite rightly the NHS is being heaped with praise but let's not forget all the social care workers who do not have the benefit of the protection the NHS staff are receiving and are risking their health (and their family's) daily for paltry wages.

Let's hope that when this pandemic is over that there will be proper investment in the social care system which has been neglected for too long.  After this should we begrudge paying higher taxes to pay for the services that have looked after us through this crisis?  Perhaps this may balance our views on who are heros really are and should be - celebrities who just act, sing or play sport for a living or those who care for us when we are sick and all the scientists who are working on treatments and cures.

The next crisis we are likely to face is climate change and I listened to a very interesting interview this morning on BBC with Chris Stark CEO Climate Change Committee, the gist of which can be read in The Guardian but in essence he was saying that to help regenerate the economy out of lockdown we should focus on building the necessary 'green' infrastructure to reduce emissions which would create jobs and help with climate change.


Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

Total Active Conc. Recvd. Deaths Recvd% Death%
IT 213,013 99,541 113,472 84,157 29,315 74.17% 25.83%
ES 250,561 71,590 178,971 153,358 25,613 85.69% 14.31%
DE 167,007 26,523 140,484 133,491 6,993 95.02% 4.98%
FR 170,551 92,730 77,821 52,290 25,531 67.19% 32.81%
UK 195,990 161,511 34,479 5,052 29,427 14.65% 85.35%
US 1,237,633 953,628 284,005 211,734 72,271 74.55% 25.45%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country
New Cases
5 May
New Cases
4 May
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
5 May
 
Deaths
4 May
 
Death
Increase
IT 1,075 1,221 -146 236 195 41
ES 2,260 1,179 1,081 185 164 21
DE 855 488 367 0 127 -127
FR 1,089 769 320 330 306 24
UK 4,406 3,985 421 693 288 405
US 23,798 24,713 -915 2,350 1,323 1,027

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily 05-May 04-May
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 1,075 213,013 29,315 13.8% 211,938 29,079 13.7%
ES 2,260 250,561 25,613 10.2% 248,301 25,428 10.2%
DE 855 167,007 6,993 4.2% 166,152 6,993 4.2%
FR 1,089 170,551 25,531 15.0% 169,462 25,201 14.9%
UK 4,406 195,990 29,427 15.0% 190,584 28,734 15.1%
US 23,798 1,212,835 72,271 6.0% 1,212,835 69,921 5.8%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 05-May 28-Apr
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 1,075 213,013 29,315 13.8% 201,505 27,359 13.6%
ES 2,260 250,561 25,613 10.2% 232,128 23,822 10.3%
DE 855 167,007 6,993 4.2% 159,912 6,126 3.8%
FR 1,089 170,551 25,531 15.0% 165,911 23,660 14.3%
UK 4,406 195,990 29,427 15.0% 161,145 25,302 15.7%
US 23,798 1,212,835 72,271 6.0% 1,035,765 59,265 5.7%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase
Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 100.5% 100.3% 105.7% 101.4%
ES 100.9% 99.8% 107.9% 99.6%
DE 100.5% 99.5% 104.4% 109.3%
FR 100.6% 100.7% 102.8% 105.0%
UK 102.8% 99.6% 121.6% 95.6%
US 100.0% 103.4% 117.1% 104.1%


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