COVID-19 17th May 2020

Summary

A quick look at Global figures:

16-May
Total Cases	4,736,395
Deaths	313,545
Recovered	1,818,119
Active Cases	2,604,731
Death Rate	6.62%
Recovery Rate	38.39%
Active Rate	54.99%

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	875	110.90%	153	63.2%	79.45%	20.55%	Inc.
ES	2,135	124.06%	104	75.4%	87.47%	12.53%	Inc.
DE	545	75.28%	26	35.6%	95.00%	5.00%	Inc.
FR	-141	-22.17%	96	92.3%	68.85%	31.15%	Inc.
UK	3,450	96.91%	448	116.7%	21.69%	78.31%	Red.
US	23,488	88.00%	1,606	100.7%	79.01%	20.99%	Inc.

Commentary

Russia now has 2nd no. of highest cases in world with 281,752

Brazil now has 5th highest no. of cases moving ahead on Italy with 233,511

IT - new cases +86 (110.9%), deaths -89 (63.22%), active cases -1,883 (64.84% of peak)

ES - new cases +414 (124.06%), deaths -34 (75.35%), active cases -1,352 (56.87% of peak)

FR - new cases -777 (-22.17%), deaths -8 (92.31%), active cases -855 (95.08% of peak)

Something odd with FR figures as less total cases reported than yesterday!

"The Government has reported a decrease in the number of EHPAD and EMS probable cases; therefore, the overall figure for total cases is lower than yesterday's "

NB EHPAD is care homes so it looks like they over estimated cases in care homes and have adjusted figures.

DE - new cases -179 (75.28%), deaths -47 (35.62%), active cases -381 (21.43% of peak)

US - new cases -3,204 (88%), deaths +11 (100.69%), active cases +10,401 (100% of peak)

UK - new cases -110 (96.91%), deaths +64 (116.67%), active cases ???

UK Testing - Last 7 Days

	Daily		Cumulative
	No. Tests	People  Tested	No. Tests	People  Tested	% No. People Tested	% of  Pop.
09-May	92,837	64,362	1,821,280	1,334,770	69.33%	2.68%
10-May	100,490	65,337	1,921,770	1,400,197	65.02%	2.83%
11-May	85,293	60,410	2,007,146	1,460,517	70.83%	2.95%
12-May	87,063	61,741	2,094,209	1,522,258	70.92%	3.08%
13-May	126,064	71,644	2,219,281	1,593,902	56.83%	3.26%
14-May	133,784	69,590	2,353,078	1,663,492	52.02%	3.46%
15-May	136,486	78,537	2,489,563	1,742,028	57.54%	3.66%

The 'r' number

We've been hearing more and more about the 'mythical' r number which the government is using to guide their strategy..  Whilst I fully understand what it is, what I do not understand, nor has it been explained, is how it is calculated.  I have found an article which explains what it is quite well, but even it says that experts have said that 'without up-to-date and comprehensive data the reproduction number is a “blunt monitoring tool.”'

It goes on to say:

Azra Ghani, a professor in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, said, “At present, we are estimating both R and the infection rate from data on hospitalizations. These form only a small fraction of all infections and represent an estimate of transmission that occurred 1-2 weeks earlier—and are therefore a blunt monitoring tool.’

Common sense would tell me that in addition to the r number they should be watching carefully the daily new cases and UK continues to see significantly more new cases than any other EU country. In the last week the average daily new cases are: UK 3,557 (11.6%), ES 1,960 (5.2%), IT 927 (3%), DE 703 (3.4%), FR 342 (1.4%) (percentage figure is increase in total cases from one week ago).

Another 'blunt instrument' is that their whole strategy is based on London and urban areas.  How can it possibly be the case that the r number is the same in London, Birmingham, Manchester as in Norfolk, Cornwall or the Lake District?  I know they state that the r number is different in different areas...  but their lockdown strategy isn't!  Why can't places with lower r rates, lower infections and less densely populated areas start to get back to normal gradually releasing the country from lockdown in stages rather than a big bang approach?

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	224,760	70,187	154,573	122,810	31,763	79.45%	20.55%
ES	276,505	56,589	219,916	192,353	27,563	87.47%	12.53%
DE	176,244	15,617	160,627	152,600	8,027	95.00%	5.00%
FR	179,365	90,674	88,691	61,066	27,625	68.85%	31.15%
UK	240,161	196,175	43,986	9,540	34,446	21.69%	78.31%
US	1,507,773	1,078,428	429,345	339,232	90,113	79.01%	20.99%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 16 May	New Cases 15 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 16 May	Deaths 15 May	Death Increase
IT	875	789	86	153	242	-89
ES	2,135	1,721	414	104	138	-34
DE	545	724	-179	26	73	-47
FR	-141	636	-777	96	104	-8
UK	3,450	3,560	-110	448	384	64
US	23,488	26,692	-3,204	1,606	1,595	11

Latest v previous day - actuals

Day	16-May				15-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	875	224,760	31,763	14.1%	223,885	31,610	14.1%
ES	2,135	276,505	27,563	10.0%	274,367	27,459	10.0%
DE	545	176,244	8,027	4.6%	175,699	8,001	4.6%
FR	-141	179,365	27,625	15.4%	179,506	27,529	15.3%
UK	3,450	240,161	34,446	14.3%	236,711	33,998	14.4%
US	23,488	1,507,773	90,113	6.0%	1,484,285	88,507	6.0%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Week	16-May				09-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	875	224,760	31,763	14.1%	218,269	30,395	13.9%
ES	2,135	276,505	27,563	10.0%	262,783	26,478	10.1%
DE	545	176,244	8,027	4.6%	171,324	7,549	4.4%
FR	-141	179,365	27,625	15.4%	176,970	26,310	14.9%
UK	3,450	240,161	34,446	14.3%	215,260	31,587	14.7%
US	23,488	1,507,773	90,113	6.0%	1,347,309	80,037	5.9%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.4%	100.1%	103.0%	101.5%
ES	100.8%	99.6%	105.2%	98.9%
DE	100.3%	100.0%	102.9%	103.4%
FR	99.9%	100.4%	101.4%	103.6%
UK	101.5%	99.9%	111.6%	97.7%
US	101.6%	100.2%	111.9%	100.6%