Summary
Russia continues to have in excess of 10,000 new cases per day and their cases have now doubled in 10 days from 99,399 29 Apr to 209,668 and look likely to exceed UK and IT in the next few days.
Brazil is in a similar position with their cases increasing from 79,361 on 29 Apr to 156,061
New
Cases
|
Change | Deaths | Change |
Rec'ry
Rate
|
Death
Rate
|
||
IT | 1,083 | 81.61% | 194 | 79.8% | 77.22% | 22.78% | Inc. |
ES | 2,666 | 81.73% | 249 | 156.6% | 86.74% | 13.26% | Inc. |
DE | 736 | 63.56% | 39 | 33.1% | 95.00% | 5.00% | Inc. |
FR | 579 | 44.95% | 80 | 32.9% | 68.05% | 31.95% | Inc. |
UK | 3,896 | 83.80% | 346 | 55.3% | 1.08% | 98.92% | Red. |
US | 25,254 | 86.60% | 1,422 | 84.3% | 74.85% | 25.15% | Inc. |
Commentary
IT - new cases -244 (81.61%), deaths -49 (79.84%), active cases -3,119 (78.37% of peak)
Italy's active cases has been reducing slowly since 19 Apr and has begun to reduce more quickly in the last week by over 15% from 100,179 to 84,842
ES - new cases -596 (81.73%), deaths +90 (156.6%), active cases -2,262 (63.46% of peak)
FR - new cases -709 (44.95%), deaths -63 (32.92%), active cases +243 (98.99% of peak)
DE - new cases -422 (63.56%) , deaths -79 (33.05%), active cases -903 (28.1% of peak)
US - new cases -2,908 (86.6%) , deaths -265 (84.29%), active cases +9,457
UK - new cases -753 (86.6%), deaths -280 (55.27%), active cases + 3,550
Lowest no. of new cases since 7 Apr and only second occasion where new cases have been below 4,000 since then.
Note that deaths are lower but interestingly if you look at the deaths chart the figure has been consistently lower each weekend only to rise again, so must be a reporting delay.
UK Testing May 2020
Daily | Cumulative | ||||
No. Tests |
People
Tested
|
No. Tests |
People
Tested
|
% No. People
Tested
|
|
01-May | 105,937 | 63,667 | 1,129,907 | 825,946 | 60.10% |
02-May | 76,496 | 56,397 | 1,206,405 | 882,343 | 73.73% |
03-May | 85,186 | 62,956 | 1,291,591 | 945,299 | 73.90% |
04-May | 84,806 | 69,839 | 1,383,842 | 1,015,138 | 82.35% |
05-May | 69,463 | 57,006 | 1,448,010 | 1,072,144 | 82.07% |
06-May | 86,583 | 85,092 | 1,534,533 | 1,139,626 | 98.28% |
07-May | 97,029 | 67,443 | 1,631,561 | 1,207,069 | 69.51% |
08-May | 96,878 | 63,339 | 1,728,443 | 1,270,408 | 65.38% |
Listening this morning to Andrew Marr show with Sir David Spiegelhalter and a worrying statistical claim that less than 5% of UK population has so far been infected by virus. This is based on 'assumption' that the 'real' death rate is 1% i.e. 31,587 deaths equates to 3,158,700 infections which is 4.65% UK population. So don't believe the hype that we are anywhere near reaching 'herd immunity'!
Of course it is believed that the death rate is actually much higher than the reported figure and average death rate is higher than expected death rate including all reported COVID deaths. This indicates 2 possibilities: some are unreported COVID deaths and others are COVID-related due to not seeking medical attention or delays in treatment due to COVID.
There is a clip of interview on BBCPolitics Twitter feed
Latest stats from Worldometers
Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate
Total | Active | Conc. | Recvd. | Deaths | Recvd% | Death% | |
IT | 218,268 | 84,842 | 133,426 | 103,031 | 30,395 | 77.22% | 22.78% |
ES | 262,783 | 63,148 | 199,635 | 173,157 | 26,478 | 86.74% | 13.26% |
DE | 171,324 | 20,475 | 150,849 | 143,300 | 7,549 | 95.00% | 5.00% |
FR | 176,658 | 94,310 | 82,348 | 56,038 | 26,310 | 68.05% | 31.95% |
UK | 215,260 | 183,329 | 31,931 | 344 | 31,587 | 1.08% | 98.92% |
US | 1,347,309 | 1,029,024 | 318,285 | 238,248 | 80,037 | 74.85% | 25.15% |
Latest v previous day - increase / decrease
Country |
New Cases
9 May
|
New Cases
8 May
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
9 May
|
Deaths
8 May
|
Death
Increase
|
IT | 1,083 | 1,327 | -244 | 194 | 243 | -49 |
ES | 2,666 | 3,262 | -596 | 249 | 159 | 90 |
DE | 736 | 1,158 | -422 | 39 | 118 | -79 |
FR | 579 | 1,288 | -709 | 80 | 243 | -163 |
UK | 3,896 | 4,649 | -753 | 346 | 626 | -280 |
US | 25,254 | 29,162 | -3,908 | 1,422 | 1,687 | -265 |
Latest v previous day - actuals
Day | 09-May | 08-May | |||||
Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
IT | 1,083 | 218,268 | 30,395 | 13.9% | 217,185 | 30,201 | 13.9% |
ES | 2,666 | 262,783 | 26,478 | 10.1% | 260,117 | 26,229 | 10.1% |
DE | 736 | 171,324 | 7,549 | 4.4% | 170,588 | 7,510 | 4.4% |
FR | 579 | 176,658 | 26,310 | 14.9% | 176,079 | 26,230 | 14.9% |
UK | 3,896 | 215,260 | 31,587 | 14.7% | 211,364 | 31,241 | 14.8% |
US | 25,254 | 1,347,309 | 80,037 | 5.9% | 1,321,785 | 78,615 | 5.9% |
Latest v one week ago - actuals
Week | 09-May | 02-May | |||||
Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
IT | 1,083 | 218,268 | 30,395 | 13.9% | 209,328 | 28,710 | 13.7% |
ES | 2,666 | 262,783 | 26,478 | 10.1% | 245,589 | 25,100 | 10.2% |
DE | 736 | 171,324 | 7,549 | 4.4% | 164,967 | 6,812 | 4.1% |
FR | 579 | 176,658 | 26,310 | 14.9% | 168,396 | 24,760 | 14.7% |
UK | 3,896 | 215,260 | 31,587 | 14.7% | 182,260 | 28,131 | 15.4% |
US | 25,254 | 1,347,309 | 80,037 | 5.9% | 1,160,774 | 67,444 | 5.8% |
Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase
Daily | Weekly | |||
Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
IT | 100.5% | 100.1% | 104.3% | 101.5% |
ES | 101.0% | 99.9% | 107.0% | 98.6% |
DE | 100.4% | 100.1% | 103.9% | 106.7% |
FR | 100.3% | 100.0% | 104.9% | 101.3% |
UK | 101.8% | 99.3% | 118.1% | 95.1% |
US | 101.9% | 99.9% | 116.1% | 102.2% |
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