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Sunday, 10 May 2020

COVID-19 10th May 2020



Summary

Russia continues to have in excess of 10,000 new cases per day and their cases have now doubled in 10 days from 99,399 29 Apr to 209,668 and look likely to exceed UK and IT in the next few days.

Brazil is in a similar position with their cases increasing from 79,361 on 29 Apr to 156,061


New
Cases
Change Deaths Change
Rec'ry
Rate
Death
Rate
IT 1,083 81.61% 194 79.8% 77.22% 22.78%  Inc.
ES 2,666 81.73% 249 156.6% 86.74% 13.26%  Inc.
DE 736 63.56% 39 33.1% 95.00% 5.00%  Inc.
FR 579 44.95% 80 32.9% 68.05% 31.95%  Inc.
UK 3,896 83.80% 346 55.3% 1.08% 98.92%  Red.
US 25,254 86.60% 1,422 84.3% 74.85% 25.15%  Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases -244 (81.61%), deaths -49 (79.84%), active cases -3,119 (78.37% of peak)
Italy's active cases has been reducing slowly since 19 Apr and has begun to reduce more quickly in the last week by over 15% from 100,179 to 84,842

ES - new cases -596 (81.73%), deaths +90 (156.6%), active cases -2,262 (63.46% of peak)

FR - new cases -709 (44.95%), deaths -63 (32.92%), active cases +243 (98.99% of peak)

DE - new cases -422 (63.56%) , deaths -79 (33.05%), active cases -903 (28.1% of peak)

US - new cases -2,908 (86.6%) , deaths -265 (84.29%), active cases +9,457

UK - new cases -753 (86.6%), deaths -280 (55.27%), active cases + 3,550
Lowest no. of new cases since 7 Apr and only second occasion where new cases have been below 4,000 since then.
Note that deaths are lower but interestingly if you look at the deaths chart the figure has been consistently lower each weekend only to rise again, so must be a reporting delay.

UK Testing May 2020


Daily Cumulative
No. Tests
People 
Tested
No. Tests
People 
Tested
% No. People
Tested
01-May 105,937 63,667 1,129,907 825,946 60.10%
02-May 76,496 56,397 1,206,405 882,343 73.73%
03-May 85,186 62,956 1,291,591 945,299 73.90%
04-May 84,806 69,839 1,383,842 1,015,138 82.35%
05-May 69,463 57,006 1,448,010 1,072,144 82.07%
06-May 86,583 85,092 1,534,533 1,139,626 98.28%
07-May 97,029 67,443 1,631,561 1,207,069 69.51%
08-May 96,878 63,339 1,728,443 1,270,408 65.38%

Listening this morning to Andrew Marr show with Sir David Spiegelhalter and a worrying statistical claim that less than 5% of UK population has so far been infected by virus.  This is based on 'assumption' that the 'real' death rate is 1% i.e. 31,587 deaths equates to 3,158,700 infections which is 4.65% UK population.  So don't believe the hype that we are anywhere near reaching 'herd immunity'!
Of course it is believed that the death rate is actually much higher than the reported figure and average death rate is higher than expected death rate including all reported COVID deaths.  This indicates 2 possibilities: some are unreported COVID deaths and others are COVID-related due to not seeking medical attention or delays in treatment due to COVID.

There is a clip of interview on BBCPolitics Twitter feed

Latest stats from Worldometers


Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate


Total Active Conc. Recvd. Deaths Recvd% Death%
IT 218,268 84,842 133,426 103,031 30,395 77.22% 22.78%
ES 262,783 63,148 199,635 173,157 26,478 86.74% 13.26%
DE 171,324 20,475 150,849 143,300 7,549 95.00% 5.00%
FR 176,658 94,310 82,348 56,038 26,310 68.05% 31.95%
UK 215,260 183,329 31,931 344 31,587 1.08% 98.92%
US 1,347,309 1,029,024 318,285 238,248 80,037 74.85% 25.15%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease


Country
New Cases
9 May
New Cases
8 May
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
9 May
 
Deaths
8 May
 
Death
Increase
IT 1,083 1,327 -244 194 243 -49
ES 2,666 3,262 -596 249 159 90
DE 736 1,158 -422 39 118 -79
FR 579 1,288 -709 80 243 -163
UK 3,896 4,649 -753 346 626 -280
US 25,254 29,162 -3,908 1,422 1,687 -265

Latest v previous day - actuals


Day 09-May 08-May
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 1,083 218,268 30,395 13.9% 217,185 30,201 13.9%
ES 2,666 262,783 26,478 10.1% 260,117 26,229 10.1%
DE 736 171,324 7,549 4.4% 170,588 7,510 4.4%
FR 579 176,658 26,310 14.9% 176,079 26,230 14.9%
UK 3,896 215,260 31,587 14.7% 211,364 31,241 14.8%
US 25,254 1,347,309 80,037 5.9% 1,321,785 78,615 5.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals


Week  09-May 02-May
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 1,083 218,268 30,395 13.9% 209,328 28,710 13.7%
ES 2,666 262,783 26,478 10.1% 245,589 25,100 10.2%
DE 736 171,324 7,549 4.4% 164,967 6,812 4.1%
FR 579 176,658 26,310 14.9% 168,396 24,760 14.7%
UK 3,896 215,260 31,587 14.7% 182,260 28,131 15.4%
US 25,254 1,347,309 80,037 5.9% 1,160,774 67,444 5.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 100.5% 100.1% 104.3% 101.5%
ES 101.0% 99.9% 107.0% 98.6%
DE 100.4% 100.1% 103.9% 106.7%
FR 100.3% 100.0% 104.9% 101.3%
UK 101.8% 99.3% 118.1% 95.1%
US 101.9% 99.9% 116.1% 102.2%



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