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Saturday, 4 April 2020

COVID-19 4th April 2020


France saw a huge surge in new cases (23,060) and new deaths (6,507).  This is because they previously didn't report cases and deaths in nursing homes which have now been included.  This now takes France's reported cases higher than China's.  Only the UK now (in the 6 countries I'm reporting) have fewer cases than China.

The UK saw its highest number of new cases to date 4,450.  A few days ago I speculated when UK would reach 50,000 cases. On 31st Mar there were 25,150 and when Italy had 25,000 it took 6 days to exceed 50,000.  UK looks on course to replicate that figure as 3 days later we have risen from 25,150 to 38,168 with over 4,000 case per day - 3 more days like this will put the figure over 50,000.  UK also now has the joint 2nd highest death rate (9.4%) along with Spain after Italy (12.3%).

If you are even contemplating flouting the government advice/instruction this weekend or next (Easter Bank Holiday) consider this ... if you catch the virus you have a 10% risk of dying from it!  Also if we don't want the country to be in lockdown indefinitely then we need to take the short-term hit to stop the spread and reduce new cases, otherwise the death rate will probably increase owing to the huge pressure on the health service being unable to cope with the large number of cases.  We know it makes sense!

New cases in the The US continue to rise each day.  Almost as many new cases reported in US  (32,284) in a day than the total in UK (38,168)!  

Italy, Spain and Germany all 'hopefully' have now already peaked? If we in UK adhere to government advice then hopefully by this time next week the UK will also have peaked after almost 3 weeks of lockdown.


NOTE.  The above comments are my own personal views/observations from studying the latest statistics published by Worldometers and may or may not reflect 'official' views.

Latest stats from Worldometers.


Latest v previous day - increase/decrease
Country
New Cases

3 Apr
New Cases

2 Apr
New Case Increase

Deaths

3 Apr

Deaths

2 Apr

Death

Increase
IT 4,585 4,668 -83 766 760 6
ES 7,134 7,947 -813 850 961 -111
DE 6,365 6,813 -448 168 176 -8
FR 23,060 2,116 20,944 1,120 1355 -235
UK 4,450 4,224 226 684 569 115
US 32,284 29,874 2,410 1,322 968 354

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily 03-Apr 02-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 4,585 119,827 14,681 12.3% 115,242 13,915 12.1%
ES 7,134 119,199 11,198 9.4% 112,065 10,348 9.2%
DE 6,365 91,159 1,275 1.4% 84,794 1,107 1.3%
FR 23,060 82,165 6,507 7.9% 59,105 5,387 9.1%
UK 4,450 38,168 3,605 9.4% 33,718 2,921 8.7%
US 32,284 277,161 7,392 2.7% 244,877 6,070 2.5%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 03-Apr 27-Mar
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total

Cases
No.

Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 4,585 119,827 14,681 12.3% 86,498 9,134 10.6%
ES 7,134 119,199 11,198 9.4% 65,719 5138 7.8%
DE 6,365 91,159 1,275 1.4% 30,871 351 1.1%
FR 23,060 82,165 6,507 7.9% 29,155 2314 7.9%
UK 4,450 38,168 3,605 9.4% 15,543 759 4.9%
US 32,284 277,161 7,392 2.7% 104,126 1695 1.6%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Daily Weekly
Country
Total

Cases

Increase

Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
Total

Cases

Increase

Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
IT 104.0% 101.5% 138.5% 116.0%
ES 106.4% 101.7% 181.4% 120.2%
DE 107.5% 107.1% 295.3% 123.0%
FR 139.0% 86.9% 281.8% 99.8%
UK 113.2% 109.0% 245.6% 193.4%
US 113.2% 107.6% 266.2% 163.8%



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