COVID-19 1st April 2020

Summary

US:  highest number of new cases so far 24,742 and has seen cases increase each day since 22nd Mar from 9,400 and also its highest number of new deaths up to 912 from 558 on 30th Mar.

Italy continues see new cases reduce from their peak of 6,557 on 21st Mar and stabilise around 4,000 but had its 3rd highest number of deaths 836 (919 27th Mar and  889 28th Mar).

Spain: 2nd highest number of new cases 7,967 v 8,271 26th Mar and number of new deaths is reducing.

Germany new cases down to 4,923 from peak 6,933 27th Mar and highest number of new deaths up to 130 from previous high of 108 on 29th Mar.

France: highest number of new cases by a large margin 7,578 from 4,611 on 28th Mar and highest number of new deaths 499 from 418 on 30th Mar.

UK: highest number of new cases up to 3,009 from 2,885 27th Mar and highest number of new deaths up to 381 from 260 on 28th Mar.

Although the death rate is rising in Italy new cases are declining so after 2/3 weeks we should also see the death rate declining as obviously it lags behind.  There are signs that perhaps Spain and Germany may have peaked, but France, UK & US are lagging by a couple of weeks. I estimate France 10 days UK 15 days and US 21 days.  Figures from China and Italy seem to indicate that the virus peaks around 4/5 weeks from first 100 cases. 

Figures below show no. of days to 1,000, 10,000 and 50,000 cases by country from the first 100 cases (approx.).

Summary

1,000 cases:  7 to 10 days

10,000 cases:  15 to 22 days

50,000 cases:  24 to 31 days

The good news for those in UK is that so far UK has not reached 50,000 cases 27 days after 100 cases were reached. However when Italy had 25,000 cases (15 Mar), as UK currently has, it was 6 days later (21 Mar) that they doubled to 53,578, but growth rate is still slower in UK than other western countries on  most counts.

Italy 

22 Feb - 79 cases 

29 Feb - 1,228 - 7 days 

10 Mar - 10,149 - 17 days 

21 Mar - 53,578 - 28 days

France 

29 Feb - 100 cases 

8th Mar - 1,209 - 8 days 

19 Mar - 10,995 - 19 days

31 Mar - 52,128 - 31 days

Germany

29 Feb - 79 cases

8 Mar - 1,040 - 8 days 

19 Mar - 9.367 - 19 days 

27 Mar - 50,871 - 27 days

Spain

1 Mar - 84 cases

9 Mar - 1,241 - 9 days 

16 Mar - 9,942 - 16 days 

25 Mar - 49,515 - 25 days

US

2 Mar - 100 cases

10 Mar - 994 - 9 days 

18 Mar - 9,197 - 17 days 

24 Mar - 54,856 - 23 days

UK 

4 Mar - 87 cases

14 Mar - 1,140 - 10 days 

26 Mar - 11,658 - 22 days

Not reached 50,000 cases

Latest stats from Worldometers.

Country	New Cases 31 Mar	New Cases 30 Mar	New Case Increase	Deaths 31 Mar	Deaths 30 Mar	Death Increase
IT	4053	4050	3	837	812	25
ES	8327	7486	841	748	913	-165
DE	4923	4450	473	130	104	26
FR	7578	4376	3202	499	418	81
UK	3009	2619	390	381	180	201
US	24742	20353	4389	897	672	225

Daily	31-Mar				30 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,053	105,792	12,428	11.7%	101,739	11,591	11.4%
ES	7,967	95,923	8,464	8.8%	87,596	7,716	8.8%
DE	4,923	71,808	775	1.1%	66,885	645	1.0%
FR	7,578	52,128	3,523	6.8%	44,550	3,024	6.8%
UK	3,009	25,150	1,789	7.1%	22,141	1,408	6.4%
US	24,742	188,530	4,053	2.1%	163,884	3,156	1.9%

Weekly	31-Mar				24 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,053	105,792	12,428	11.7%	69,176	6,820	9.9%
ES	7,967	95,923	8,464	8.8%	42,058	2991	7.1%
DE	4,923	71,808	775	1.1%	32,991	159	0.5%
FR	7,578	52,128	3,523	6.8%	22,304	1100	4.9%
UK	3,009	25,150	1,789	7.1%	8,077	422	5.2%
US	24,742	188,530	4,053	2.1%	54,856	780	1.4%

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	104.0%	103.1%	152.9%	119.2%
ES	109.5%	100.2%	228.1%	124.1%
DE	107.4%	111.9%	217.7%	223.9%
FR	117.0%	99.6%	233.7%	137.0%
UK	113.6%	111.9%	311.4%	136.1%
US	115.0%	111.6%	343.7%	151.2%