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Thursday, 2 April 2020

COVID-19 2nd April 2020


Today I'll just let the stats speak for themselves.

The UK media today seems to be in a 'hysteria' about the lack of testing.  A few points worth considering:

I do not believe that testing is the 'silver bullet' that the media seem to be trying to make it.

1/ The time for testing has passed - we 'should' have been testing before the lockdown to identify those infected and contact trace all those they have been in contact with and isolate all those infected INSTEAD of locking down the whole country - but that ship has well and truly sailed.

2/ The key argument is to test NHS staff who are self-isolating owing to a member of their household who may be infected.  If there is someone infected in their household then they would need to self-solate for 14 days and then the NHS member may be tested and then if not positive they can return to work.

3/ There is absolutely no point testing everyone as otherwise we would need to test everyone everyday that hasn't tested positive, as just because they didn't test positive today doesn't mean they won't test positive another day.

4/ The anti-body test that shows whether you have already had the virus a/ is not ready yet and b/ requires someone to have been infected at least 28 days ago - so may not be particularly useful unless this pandemic runs for months.

5/ The real time for testing is in a couple of weeks when hopefully the effect of lockdown reduces new cases.  Then we need to do what we should have done in point 1 so that only those infected are isolated and not the whole population and we can gradually get back to normal by a/ anti-gen testing and contact tracing and isolating those infected and b/ anti-body testing and allowing those infected and recovered to carry on as normal.

I believe that by the middle of next week (17/18 days after lockdown) we should start to see new cases subside (as is happening in Italy).  The real risk once cases reduce is that the lockdown is removed and a new batch of infections start and we go through another cycle.  China locked down for a full 2 months so we should expect the same and then be very cautious afterwards.

Latest stats from Worldometers.

Latest cases/deaths versus previous day
Country
New Cases
1 Apr
New Cases
31 Mar
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
1 Apr
 
Deaths
31 Mar
 
Death
Increase
IT 4,782 4,053 729 727 837 -110
ES 8,192 7,967 225 923 748 175
DE 6,173 4,923 1,250 156 130 26
FR 4,861 7,578 -2,717 509 499 10
UK 4,324 3,009 1,315 563 381 182
US 26,473 24,742 1,731 1,049 897 152

Latest actuals versus previous day

Daily 01-Apr 31 Mar (-1 Day)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 4,782 110,574 13,155 11.9% 105,792 12,428 11.7%
ES 8,192 104,118 9,387 9.0% 95,923 8,464 8.8%
DE 6,173 77,981 931 1.2% 71,808 775 1.1%
FR 4,861 56,989 4,032 7.1% 52,128 3,523 6.8%
UK 4,324 29,474 2,352 8.0% 25,150 1,789 7.1%
US 26,473 215,003 5,102 2.4% 188,530 4,053 2.1%
Latest actuals versus 1 Week ago

Weekly 01-Apr 25 Mar (-1 Week)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 4,782 110,574 13,155 11.9% 74,386 7,503 10.1%
ES 8,192 104,118 9,387 9.0% 49,515 3647 7.4%
DE 6,173 77,981 931 1.2% 37,323 206 0.6%
FR 4,861 56,989 4,032 7.1% 25,233 1331 5.3%
UK 4,324 29,474 2,352 8.0% 9,529 463 4.9%
US 26,473 215,003 5,102 2.4% 68,211 1027 1.5%
Latest actuals versus 1 month ago

Monthly 01-Apr 1 Mar (-1 Month)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 4,782 110,574 13,155 11.9% 1,701 41 2.4%
ES 8,192 104,118 9,387 9.0% 84 0 0.0%
DE 6,173 77,981 931 1.2% 130 0 0.0%
FR 4,861 56,989 4,032 7.1% 130 2 1.5%
UK 4,324 29,474 2,352 8.0% 36 0 0.0%
US 26,473 215,003 5,102 2.4% 75 1 1.3%
Daily v Weekly increase factors cases/deaths

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 104.5% 101.3% 148.6% 117.9%
ES 108.5% 102.2% 210.3% 122.4%
DE 108.6% 110.6% 208.9% 216.3%
FR 109.3% 104.7% 225.9% 134.1%
UK 117.2% 112.2% 309.3% 164.2%
US 114.0% 110.4% 315.2% 157.6%


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