Today I'll just let the stats speak for themselves.
The UK media today seems to be in a 'hysteria' about the lack of testing. A few points worth considering:
I do not believe that testing is the 'silver bullet' that the media seem to be trying to make it.
1/ The time for testing has passed - we 'should' have been testing before the lockdown to identify those infected and contact trace all those they have been in contact with and isolate all those infected INSTEAD of locking down the whole country - but that ship has well and truly sailed.
2/ The key argument is to test NHS staff who are self-isolating owing to a member of their household who may be infected. If there is someone infected in their household then they would need to self-solate for 14 days and then the NHS member may be tested and then if not positive they can return to work.
3/ There is absolutely no point testing everyone as otherwise we would need to test everyone everyday that hasn't tested positive, as just because they didn't test positive today doesn't mean they won't test positive another day.
4/ The anti-body test that shows whether you have already had the virus a/ is not ready yet and b/ requires someone to have been infected at least 28 days ago - so may not be particularly useful unless this pandemic runs for months.
5/ The real time for testing is in a couple of weeks when hopefully the effect of lockdown reduces new cases. Then we need to do what we should have done in point 1 so that only those infected are isolated and not the whole population and we can gradually get back to normal by a/ anti-gen testing and contact tracing and isolating those infected and b/ anti-body testing and allowing those infected and recovered to carry on as normal.
I believe that by the middle of next week (17/18 days after lockdown) we should start to see new cases subside (as is happening in Italy). The real risk once cases reduce is that the lockdown is removed and a new batch of infections start and we go through another cycle. China locked down for a full 2 months so we should expect the same and then be very cautious afterwards.
Latest stats from Worldometers.
Latest cases/deaths versus previous day
Country |
New Cases
1 Apr
|
New Cases
31 Mar
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
1 Apr
|
Deaths
31 Mar
|
Death
Increase
|
IT | 4,782 | 4,053 | 729 | 727 | 837 | -110 |
ES | 8,192 | 7,967 | 225 | 923 | 748 | 175 |
DE | 6,173 | 4,923 | 1,250 | 156 | 130 | 26 |
FR | 4,861 | 7,578 | -2,717 | 509 | 499 | 10 |
UK | 4,324 | 3,009 | 1,315 | 563 | 381 | 182 |
US | 26,473 | 24,742 | 1,731 | 1,049 | 897 | 152 |
Latest actuals versus previous day
Daily | 01-Apr | 31 Mar (-1 Day) | |||||
Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
IT | 4,782 | 110,574 | 13,155 | 11.9% | 105,792 | 12,428 | 11.7% |
ES | 8,192 | 104,118 | 9,387 | 9.0% | 95,923 | 8,464 | 8.8% |
DE | 6,173 | 77,981 | 931 | 1.2% | 71,808 | 775 | 1.1% |
FR | 4,861 | 56,989 | 4,032 | 7.1% | 52,128 | 3,523 | 6.8% |
UK | 4,324 | 29,474 | 2,352 | 8.0% | 25,150 | 1,789 | 7.1% |
US | 26,473 | 215,003 | 5,102 | 2.4% | 188,530 | 4,053 | 2.1% |
Latest actuals versus 1 Week ago
Weekly | 01-Apr | 25 Mar (-1 Week) | |||||
Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
IT | 4,782 | 110,574 | 13,155 | 11.9% | 74,386 | 7,503 | 10.1% |
ES | 8,192 | 104,118 | 9,387 | 9.0% | 49,515 | 3647 | 7.4% |
DE | 6,173 | 77,981 | 931 | 1.2% | 37,323 | 206 | 0.6% |
FR | 4,861 | 56,989 | 4,032 | 7.1% | 25,233 | 1331 | 5.3% |
UK | 4,324 | 29,474 | 2,352 | 8.0% | 9,529 | 463 | 4.9% |
US | 26,473 | 215,003 | 5,102 | 2.4% | 68,211 | 1027 | 1.5% |
Latest actuals versus 1 month ago
Monthly | 01-Apr | 1 Mar (-1 Month) | |||||
Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
IT | 4,782 | 110,574 | 13,155 | 11.9% | 1,701 | 41 | 2.4% |
ES | 8,192 | 104,118 | 9,387 | 9.0% | 84 | 0 | 0.0% |
DE | 6,173 | 77,981 | 931 | 1.2% | 130 | 0 | 0.0% |
FR | 4,861 | 56,989 | 4,032 | 7.1% | 130 | 2 | 1.5% |
UK | 4,324 | 29,474 | 2,352 | 8.0% | 36 | 0 | 0.0% |
US | 26,473 | 215,003 | 5,102 | 2.4% | 75 | 1 | 1.3% |
Daily v Weekly increase factors cases/deaths
Daily | Weekly | |||
Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
IT | 104.5% | 101.3% | 148.6% | 117.9% |
ES | 108.5% | 102.2% | 210.3% | 122.4% |
DE | 108.6% | 110.6% | 208.9% | 216.3% |
FR | 109.3% | 104.7% | 225.9% | 134.1% |
UK | 117.2% | 112.2% | 309.3% | 164.2% |
US | 114.0% | 110.4% | 315.2% | 157.6% |
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