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Thursday 30 April 2020

COVID-19 30th April 2020


Summary

New

Cases
Change Deaths Change
Rec'ry

Rate
Death

Rate
IT 2,086 72.15% 333 89.5% 72.02% 27.98%  Inc.
ES 4,771 176.31% 453 150.5% 84.56% 15.44%  Inc.
DE 1,627 140.99% 153 81.4% 94.90% 5.10%  Inc.
FR 509 19.29% 427 116.3% 66.69% 33.31%  Inc.
UK 4,076 102.00% 4,419 754.1% 1.30% 98.70%  Reduce
US 28,049 110.39% 2,390 96.8% 70.51% 29.49%  Reduce

Commentary


US - news cases increased by 2,640 (110.39%), deaths reduced by 79 (96.8%), active cases continue to increase to 855,127.

ES - new cases increased 2,065 (176.31%), deaths increased by 152 (150.50%), active cases reduced by 4,708 (-20.39 from peak 23 Apr (100,106)

IT - new cases reduce by 808 (72.15%), deaths reduce by 39 (89.52%), active cases continue to reduce slowly to 104,657 and are now 3.3% less than peak 108,257 20 Apr.

FR - new cases reduce by 2,129, deaths increase by 60 (116.35%), active cases reduce to 94,105 (1.32%) from high 95,365 28 Apr

DE - new cases increased by 473 (140.99%), deaths reduced by 35 (81.38%), active cases reduced to 34,672 and are now less than half the peak of 72,862 on 6 Apr.

UK - new cases increased by 80, deaths increased by 795, active cases cannot be calculated correctly as recovered cases are not being updated and have stayed at 344 for several weeks.

NOTE UK is now including non-hospital deaths (i.e. care homes and community), therefore the total deaths increased from 21,678 to 26,097 - and increase of 3,833 which includes 795 new hospital deaths.  UK is now approx. 1,500 deaths behind Italy and has the worst death rate of all countries at 15.8%, however the death rate is calculated as percentage of deaths from total cases, so whilst non-hospital deaths have been included, have they also been added to total cases?  I doubt it, so figure is distorted but if I add 3,000 non hospital deaths to total cases it only reduces death rate by 0.3% to 15.5%.

UK Testing from DHSCgovuk

Latest data as of 5pm 28 Apr 2020
A total of 632,974 people have now been tested
On 28 Apr 33,455 people tested with 52,429 tests - that's up from around 45,000 on 27th Apr. with 2 more days reporting for April I wonder if we 'miraculously' reach the 100,000 goal?


Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

Total Active Conc. Recvd. Deaths Recvd% Death%
IT 203,591 104,657 98,934 71,252 27,682 72.02% 27.98%
ES 236,899 79,695 157,204 132,929 24,275 84.56% 15.44%
DE 161,539 34,672 126,867 120,400 6,467 94.90% 5.10%
FR 166,420 94,105 72,315 48,228 24,087 66.69% 33.31%
UK 165,221 138,780 26,441 344 26,097 1.30% 98.70%
US 1,064,194 855,127 209,067 147,411 61,656 70.51% 29.49%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country
New Cases

29 Apr
New Cases

28 Apr
New Case Increase

Deaths
29 Apr

Deaths
28 Apr

Death
Increase
IT 2,086 2,891 -805 333 372 -39
ES 4,771 2,706 2,065 453 301 152
DE 1,627 1,154 473 153 188 -35
FR 509 2,638 -2,129 427 367 60
UK 4,076 3,996 80 4,419 586 3,833
US 28,049 25,409 2,640 2,390 2,469 -79

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily 29-Apr 28-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 2,086 203,591 27,682 13.6% 201,505 27,349 13.6%
ES 4,771 236,899 24,275 10.2% 232,128 23,822 10.3%
DE 1,627 161,539 6,467 4.0% 159,912 6,314 3.9%
FR 509 166,420 24,087 14.5% 165,911 23,660 14.3%
UK 4,076 165,221 26,097 15.8% 161,145 21,678 13.5%
US 28,049 1,064,194 61,656 5.8% 1,035,765 59,266 5.7%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 29-Apr 22-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total

Cases
No.

Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 2,086 203,591 27,682 13.6% 187,327 25,085 13.4%
ES 4,771 236,899 24,275 10.2% 208,389 21,717 10.4%
DE 1,627 161,539 6,467 4.0% 150,648 5,315 3.5%
FR 509 166,420 24,087 14.5% 155,944 21,340 13.7%
UK 4,076 165,221 26,097 15.8% 133,495 21,060 15.8%
US 28,049 1,064,194 61,656 5.8% 845,385 47,894 5.7%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

NOTE The UK has adjusted death figures (retrospectively), therefore the weekly increase of death rate is no longer accurate. i.e. the previous death figure was 18,100 for 22 Apr which has been adjusted to 21,060 - using previous figures the weekly death rate would be 116.5% or alternatively an increase from a death rate of total cases of 13.6% one week ago to 15.8%.

Daily Weekly
Country
Total

Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
Total

Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
IT 101.0% 100.2% 108.7% 101.5%
ES 102.1% 99.8% 113.7% 98.3%
DE 101.0% 101.4% 107.2% 113.5%
FR 100.3% 101.5% 106.7% 105.8%
UK 102.5% 117.4% 123.8% 100.1%
US 102.7% 101.3% 125.9% 102.3%



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