Summary
US - new cases 30,206 (-639), Deaths 2,174 (-308)
Recovery Rate V Death Rate
62.42% v 37.58% Recovery Rate Reducing
ES - new cases 4,289 (-2,310), Deaths 503 (-54)
Recovery Rate V Death Rate
79.48% v 20.52% Recovery Rate Increasing
IT - new cases 3,786 (+1,119), Deaths 545 (-13)
Recovery Rate V Death Rate
64.43% v 35.57% Recovery Rate Increasing
FR - new cases 17,164 (+4,520), Deaths 753 (-685)
Another strange reporting day from France who's range is normally 2,000-8,000 cases but on 3 days now in APril have reported 23,060,11,059 and now 17,164 new cases.
Recovery Rate V Death Rate
64.68% v 35.32% Recovery Rate Increasing
DE - new cases 2,945 (+1,119), Deaths 248 (-61)
Recovery Rate V Death Rate
64.43% v 35.57% Recovery Rate Reducing
UK - new cases 4,617 (+14), Deaths 861 (+100)
Recovery Rate V Death Rate
2.44% v 97.56% Recovery Rate Reducing
Note UK does not appear to be removing recovered cases from acitve cases which results in active cases not reducing distorting the Recover v Death rates
Commentary
US - New York has more cases (226,198) than any EU country, New Jersey (75,317) will soon exceed the 'benchmark' of China of 80,000. US continues to have around 30,000 new cases per day and have had less than 25,000 every day in April so far. Deaths have been between 1,500 and 2,500 per day since 7 Apr. So ... the question is which set of figures is Donald Trump seeing to state that the US epidemic is slowing down sufficiently to remove shutdown? Could it be that 20m people are now unemployed and the Dow Jones is down 20% and there is a presidential election in November?
To put this in context the US has 5 times the population of UK (330m v 68m) and has exactly the same urban population density 83% but a much smaller general population density 94 per square mile v 727 per square mile and a lower median age 38.3 v 40.5. If all things were equal you would expect UK to have 20% of US cases i.e. 135,000 in total or 6,000 per day, which it doesn't, so suggests that US is in a worse state than UK which is continuing lockdown.
Source Worldometers
France - once again sees a massive spike in new cases of 17,164 after the biggest spike in deaths to date yesterday of 1,438.
UK - as I predicted 5 days ago, UK now has more than 100,000 cases (103,093) exactly in line with the trajectory of Italy (101,739) on 30 Mar, but although 17 days behind Italy's curve, UK has a higher death rate 13.3% v 13.1% (which is the highest of all countries). NB Italy's death rate on 30 Mar was 11.4%. (Note death rate is no. of deaths as a percentage of total cases)
Germany - continues to have lowest death rate (2.9%) and is the only western country showing real signs that they have the situation under control. i.e. new cases have reduced to what they were a month ago and their active cases are reducing daily. Their recovery rate is the highest at 95%.
Italy - after 5 consecutive days of reduced new cases saw an increase of 1,119 new cases and only on one day since 20 Mar have deaths been lower than 500. Their active cases continue to rise indicating that unfortunately whilst cases are slowing it is gradual and shows no real signs of ending quickly.
Spain - active cases have been flattening since 1 Apr and for the first day have actualy reduced indicating that they may now be over the worst. Deaths have almost halved from the peak of 961 and seem to be reducing daily. Also, their Recovery Rate is increasing and is the 2nd highest after Germany at 79.5%.
China - have today 'adjusted' their reported deaths upwards by (very curiously) exactly 50% (by 1,290 from 2,579 to 3,869) on the same day they announce negative GDP! Given the figures reported by the 6 major western countries, you would really have to question the accuracy of the Chinese 'official' figures. They 'claim', that from 571 cases on 22 Jan to 80,026 on 1 Mar (38 days), that there have been only 2,341 new cases since (16 Apr 82,367). i.e. on average only 50 new cases per day.
All 6 countries I am reporting (except UK) have already reached 38 days since first 500 cases and show absolutely no signs of a reduction in new cases to below 100 per day!
IT 48/49 days - (470 cases 26 Feb / 655 cases 27 Feb) - low since peak 2,667 15 Apr
DE 42 days - (545 cases 5 Mar) - low since peak 2,138 14 Apr
ES 40 days - (525 cases 7 Mar) - low since peak 3,268 13 Apr
FR 41/42 days - (423 cases 5 Mar / 653 cases 6 Mar) - low since peak 2,866 5 Apr
US 39 days - (541 cases 8 Mar) - low since peak 25,400 5 Apr
UK 35 days - (590 cases 12 Mar) - low since peak 4,342 13 Apr
Russia - Conspiracy theorist amongst us may also have been wondering why Russia's figures have been so low but they seem to be 2-4 weeks behind, with their first 500 cases reported on 31 Mar, and are now seeing new cases rise consitently each day to now 3,448 with almost 28,000 cases.
Latest stats from Worldometers
Latest Recovery Rate v Death Rate
| Total | Active | Conc. | Recvd. | Deaths | Recvd% | Death% | |
| IT | 168,941 | 106,607 | 62,334 | 40,164 | 22,170 | 64.43% | 35.57% |
| ES | 184,948 | 90,836 | 94,112 | 74,797 | 19,315 | 79.48% | 20.52% |
| DE | 137,698 | 56,646 | 81,052 | 77,000 | 4,052 | 95.00% | 5.00% |
| FR | 165,027 | 114,295 | 50,732 | 32,812 | 17,920 | 64.68% | 35.32% |
| UK | 103,093 | 89,020 | 14,073 | 344 | 13,729 | 2.44% | 97.56% |
| US | 677,570 | 585,445 | 92,125 | 57,508 | 34,617 | 62.42% | 37.58% |
Latest v prevous day - increase/decrease
| Country |
New Cases
16 Apr
|
New Cases
15 Apr
| New Case Increase |
Deaths
16 Apr
|
Deaths
15 Apr
|
Death
Increase
|
| IT | 3,786 | 2,667 | 1,119 | 545 | 558 | -13 |
| ES | 4,289 | 6,599 | -2,310 | 503 | 557 | -54 |
| DE | 2,945 | 2,543 | 402 | 248 | 309 | -61 |
| FR | 17,164 | 4,520 | 12,644 | 753 | 1438 | -685 |
| UK | 4,617 | 4,603 | 14 | 861 | 761 | 100 |
| US | 29,567 | 30,206 | -639 | 2,174 | 2,482 | -308 |
Latest v previous day - actuals
| Daily | 16-Apr | 15-Apr | |||||
| Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
| IT | 3,786 | 168,941 | 22,170 | 13.1% | 165,155 | 21,625 | 13.1% |
| ES | 4,289 | 184,948 | 19,315 | 10.4% | 180,549 | 18,812 | 10.4% |
| DE | 2,945 | 137,698 | 4,052 | 2.9% | 134,753 | 3,804 | 2.8% |
| FR | 17,164 | 165,027 | 17,920 | 10.9% | 147,863 | 17,167 | 11.6% |
| UK | 4,617 | 103,093 | 13,729 | 13.3% | 98,476 | 12,868 | 13.1% |
| US | 29,567 | 677,570 | 34,617 | 5.1% | 644,089 | 32,443 | 5.0% |
Latest v one week ago - actuals
| Weekly | 16-Apr | 09-Apr | |||||
| Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
| Death Rate% |
| IT | 3,786 | 168,941 | 22,170 | 13.1% | 143,626 | 18,279 | 12.7% |
| ES | 4,289 | 184,948 | 19,315 | 10.4% | 153,222 | 15,447 | 10.1% |
| DE | 2,945 | 137,698 | 4,052 | 2.9% | 118,235 | 2,607 | 2.2% |
| FR | 17,164 | 165,027 | 17,920 | 10.9% | 117,749 | 12,210 | 10.4% |
| UK | 4,617 | 103,093 | 13,729 | 13.3% | 65,077 | 7,978 | 12.3% |
| US | 29,567 | 677,570 | 34,617 | 5.1% | 469,124 | 16,712 | 3.6% |
Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase
| Daily | Weekly | |||
| Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
| IT | 102.3% | 100.2% | 117.6% | 103.1% |
| ES | 102.4% | 100.2% | 120.7% | 103.6% |
| DE | 102.2% | 104.2% | 116.5% | 133.5% |
| FR | 111.6% | 93.5% | 140.2% | 104.7% |
| UK | 104.7% | 101.9% | 158.4% | 108.6% |
| US | 105.2% | 101.4% | 144.4% | 143.4% |
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