Summary
For the first day US has had a lower number of new cases down almost 9,000 from previous day 25,316 v 34,196.
Spain has also seen a big reduction in new cases down 1,656 (5,478 v 7,134)
Italy had 489 fewer new cases and 156 fewer deaths.
Germany has now exceeded 100,000 cases but had 902 fewer new cases and 29 fewer deaths.
France had significantly lower new cases 4,902 (2,886 v 7,788) and 535 fewer deaths.
The UK bucks the trend and saw the highest number of new cases to date by a significant number (1,453) 5,903 5 Apr v 4,450 on 3 Apr. It is inevitable that the predicted 50,000 cases will be exceeded tomorrow, which puts UK on exactly the same trajectory as Italy.
I find it difficult to comprehend that after 2 weeks of lockdown that we are still seeing new cases increase at the highest rate so far. That's a 33% increase in cases from the previous highest number on 3 Apr. If the incubation period is on average 5 to 7 days then that means people are still getting infected well into the lockdown. WHO states that the incubation period can be anywhere between 1-14 days but that the average is 5 days.
It is concerning that whilst every other major western country has seen new cases decline the UK has seen its worst day! Could this be the peak? Let's hope so.
Comparing UK stats against Italy:
Italy locked down on 9 Mar (7,375 cases) and peaked on 21 Mar (53,578 cases) i.e. 12 days later before new cases started to decline.
UK locked down on 24 Mar (6,650 cases) 12 days later is 4 Apr (latest figures are for 5 Apr i.e. 13 days 47,806). I suspect that we will have another high day today taking figures over 50,000 perhaps to just over 53,000 and then let's hope that this is UK peak and we start to see new cases decline. Having said that though there has still not been less that 4,000 new cases per day in Italy for 15 consecutive days after their peak of 6,556 on 21 Mar (and 7 of those days they were over 5,000), so I'm afraid that there is still a long way to go. It makes you wonder what China is doing to keep new cases around 50 per day since 1 Mar? (1,682 new cases in 36 days)
Latest stats from Worldometers.
Latest v previous day increase/decrease
Country |
New Cases
5 Apr
|
New Cases
4 Apr
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
5 Apr
|
Deaths
4 Apr
|
Death
Increase
|
IT | 4,316 | 4,805 | -489 | 525 | 681 | -156 |
ES | 5,478 | 6,969 | -1,491 | 694 | 749 | -55 |
DE | 4,031 | 4,933 | -902 | 140 | 169 | -29 |
FR | 2,886 | 7,788 | -4,902 | 518 | 1053 | -535 |
UK | 5,903 | 3,735 | 2,168 | 621 | 708 | -87 |
US | 25,316 | 34,196 | -8,880 | 1,164 | 1060 | 104 |
Latest v previous day - actuals
Daily | 05-Apr | 04-Apr | |||||
Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
IT | 4,316 | 128,948 | 15,887 | 12.3% | 124,632 | 15,362 | 12.3% |
ES | 5,478 | 131,646 | 12,641 | 9.6% | 126,168 | 11,947 | 9.5% |
DE | 4,031 | 100,123 | 1,584 | 1.6% | 96,092 | 1,444 | 1.5% |
FR | 2,886 | 92,839 | 8,078 | 8.7% | 89,953 | 7,560 | 8.4% |
UK | 5,903 | 47,806 | 4,934 | 10.3% | 41,903 | 4,313 | 10.3% |
US | 25,316 | 336,673 | 9,616 | 2.9% | 311,357 | 8,452 | 2.7% |
Latest v one week ago - actuals
Weekly | 05-Apr | 29-Mar | |||||
Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
IT | 4,316 | 128,948 | 15,887 | 12.3% | 97,689 | 10,779 | 11.0% |
ES | 5,478 | 131,646 | 12,641 | 9.6% | 80,110 | 6,803 | 8.5% |
DE | 4,031 | 100,123 | 1,584 | 1.6% | 62,435 | 541 | 0.9% |
FR | 2,886 | 92,839 | 8,078 | 8.7% | 40,174 | 2,606 | 6.5% |
UK | 5,903 | 47,806 | 4,934 | 10.3% | 19,522 | 1,228 | 6.3% |
US | 25,316 | 336,673 | 9,616 | 2.9% | 143,491 | 2,583 | 1.8% |
Latest v one week ago - percentage rate of increase
Daily | Weekly | |||
Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
IT | 103.5% | 100.0% | 132.0% | 111.7% |
ES | 104.3% | 101.4% | 164.3% | 113.1% |
DE | 104.2% | 105.3% | 160.4% | 182.6% |
FR | 103.2% | 103.5% | 231.1% | 134.1% |
UK | 114.1% | 100.3% | 244.9% | 164.1% |
US | 108.1% | 105.2% | 234.6% | 158.7% |
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