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Monday, 6 April 2020

COVID-19 6th April 2020


Summary
For the first day US has had a lower number of new cases down almost 9,000 from previous day 25,316 v 34,196.

Spain has also seen a big reduction in new cases down 1,656 (5,478 v 7,134)

Italy had 489 fewer new cases and 156 fewer deaths.

Germany has now exceeded 100,000 cases but had 902 fewer new cases and 29 fewer deaths.

France had significantly lower new cases 4,902 (2,886 v 7,788) and 535 fewer deaths.

The UK bucks the trend and saw the highest number of new cases to date by a significant number (1,453) 5,903 5 Apr v 4,450 on 3 Apr.  It is inevitable that the predicted 50,000 cases will be exceeded tomorrow, which puts UK on exactly the same trajectory as Italy.

I find it difficult to comprehend that after 2 weeks of lockdown that we are still seeing new cases increase at the highest rate so far.  That's a 33% increase in cases from the previous highest number on 3 Apr.  If the incubation period is on average 5 to 7 days then that means people are still getting infected well into the lockdown.  WHO states that the incubation period can be anywhere between 1-14 days but that the average is 5 days.

It is concerning that whilst every other major western country has seen new cases decline the UK has seen its worst day!  Could this be the peak? Let's hope so.

Comparing UK stats against Italy:
Italy locked down on 9 Mar (7,375 cases) and peaked on 21 Mar (53,578 cases) i.e. 12 days later before new cases started to decline.
UK locked down on 24 Mar (6,650 cases) 12 days later is 4 Apr (latest figures are for 5 Apr i.e. 13 days 47,806).  I suspect that we will have another high day today taking figures over 50,000 perhaps to just over 53,000 and then let's hope that this is UK peak and we start to see new cases decline.  Having said that though there has still not been less that 4,000 new cases per day in Italy for 15 consecutive days after their peak of 6,556 on 21 Mar (and 7 of those days they were over 5,000), so I'm afraid that there is still a long way to go.  It makes you wonder what China is doing to keep new cases around 50 per day since 1 Mar? (1,682 new cases in 36 days)

Latest stats from Worldometers.

Latest v previous day increase/decrease

Country
New Cases

5 Apr
New Cases

4 Apr
New Case Increase

Deaths
5 Apr

Deaths
4 Apr

Death
Increase
IT 4,316 4,805 -489 525 681 -156
ES 5,478 6,969 -1,491 694 749 -55
DE 4,031 4,933 -902 140 169 -29
FR 2,886 7,788 -4,902 518 1053 -535
UK 5,903 3,735 2,168 621 708 -87
US 25,316 34,196 -8,880 1,164 1060 104

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily 05-Apr 04-Apr
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 4,316 128,948 15,887 12.3% 124,632 15,362 12.3%
ES 5,478 131,646 12,641 9.6% 126,168 11,947 9.5%
DE 4,031 100,123 1,584 1.6% 96,092 1,444 1.5%
FR 2,886 92,839 8,078 8.7% 89,953 7,560 8.4%
UK 5,903 47,806 4,934 10.3% 41,903 4,313 10.3%
US 25,316 336,673 9,616 2.9% 311,357 8,452 2.7%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 05-Apr 29-Mar
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total

Cases
No.

Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 4,316 128,948 15,887 12.3% 97,689 10,779 11.0%
ES 5,478 131,646 12,641 9.6% 80,110 6,803 8.5%
DE 4,031 100,123 1,584 1.6% 62,435 541 0.9%
FR 2,886 92,839 8,078 8.7% 40,174 2,606 6.5%
UK 5,903 47,806 4,934 10.3% 19,522 1,228 6.3%
US 25,316 336,673 9,616 2.9% 143,491 2,583 1.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate of increase

Daily Weekly
Country
Total

Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
Total

Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate

 Increase Factor
IT 103.5% 100.0% 132.0% 111.7%
ES 104.3% 101.4% 164.3% 113.1%
DE 104.2% 105.3% 160.4% 182.6%
FR 103.2% 103.5% 231.1% 134.1%
UK 114.1% 100.3% 244.9% 164.1%
US 108.1% 105.2% 234.6% 158.7%



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