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Monday 30 March 2020

COVID-19 30th March 2020


For the very first time new cases in all countries are less than the previous day. 

The good news is that Italy now looks as if it may have peaked and that the signs of the effect of lockdown are now starting to be seen.  New cases hit a peak of 6,557 on 21st Mar and have been consistently lower for the last 8 days.

Spain peaked on 26th Mar with 8,271 and have now been lower for the last 3 days.
Germany peaked on 27th 6,933 and have been lower for the last 2 days.
France seemed to be stabilising after 23rd at 3,838 but spiked on 28th to 4,611.
UK peaked on 27th 2,885 but has seen new cases decline for the last 2 days.
US peaked 28th at 19,452 but is down to 18,882.

However, I believe that UK is 2 weeks behind the curve and US about 3 weeks behind so won't be surprised if we see these figures continue to rise before they flatten out and decline.

At current rates by end of today it looks like Italy will be over 100,00 cases and Spain will have more cases than China, as most likely will Germany before the end of the week.  The US has reported almost 110,00 cases in the last week alone. It makes me wonder how accurate the 'reported' China figures are .. or should the west learn from what China has done to contain it?

Latest stats from Worldometers.

The table below shows the daily increase/decrease in news cases and new deaths.


Country
New Cases


29 Mar
New Cases


28 Mar
New Case Increase


Deaths

29 Mar


Deaths

28 Mar


Death

Increase
IT 5,217 5,874 -657 756 889 133
ES 6,803 7,516 -713 821 844 23
DE 4,740 6,824 -2,084 108 82 -26
FR 2,599 4,611 -2,012 292 319 27
UK 2,433 2,546 -113 209 260 51
US 18,822 19,452 -630 263 525 262

Table below shows total cases and total deaths for the last 2 days.

Daily 29-Mar 28 Mar (-1 Day)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 5,217 97,689 10,779 11.0% 92,472 10,023 10.8%
ES 6,803 80,110 6,803 8.5% 73,235 5,982 8.2%
DE 4,740 62,435 541 0.9% 57,695 433 0.8%
FR 2,599 40,174 2,606 6.5% 37,575 2,314 6.2%
UK 2,433 19,522 1,228 6.3% 17,089 1,019 6.0%
US 18,822 142,460 2,484 1.7% 123,578 2,221 1.8%

Table below shows total cases and total deaths for the latest day and one week ago.

Weekly 29-Mar 22 Mar (-1 Week)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total


Cases
No.


Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 5,217 97,689 10,779 11.0% 59,138 5,476 9.3%
ES 6,803 80,110 6,803 8.5% 28,768 1772 6.2%
DE 4,740 62,435 541 0.9% 24,873 94 0.4%
FR 2,599 40,174 2,606 6.5% 16,018 674 4.2%
UK 2,433 19,522 1,228 6.3% 5,683 281 4.9%
US 18,822 142,460 2,484 1.7% 33,592 414 1.2%

The table below shows the Daily and Weekly increase cases/deaths.
US cases are more than quadrupling in a week and UK increasing by almost 3.5 times.
Germany has seen the highest increase in death rate but is still a long way behind every other country with their death rate less than 1% and Italy's at an alarming 11% now.

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases

Increase

Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases

Increase

Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 105.6% 101.8% 165.2% 119.2%
ES 109.4% 104.0% 278.5% 137.9%
DE 108.2% 115.5% 251.0% 229.3%
FR 106.9% 105.3% 250.8% 154.2%
UK 114.2% 105.5% 343.5% 127.2%
US 115.3% 97.0% 424.1% 141.5%




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