To reiterate what I posted in an update yesterday evening:
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Health Secretary Matt Hancock have tested positive for COVID-19 and the Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty is self-isolating after showing symptoms. Some are critcising them for not practising what they preached ... but imagine the amount of stress they are under and stress severely impacts the immune system.
I have added a new table comparing latest figure against previous day's figures to show rate of growth.
Summary
Both US and Italy now have more cases than China. The growth in the US is quite alarming given that US is approx 3 weeks behind the Italian trajectory. US has grown from under 20,000 cases to over 100,000 in a week - more cases than total in China in just one week alone.
Italy, Spain and France all had slightly lower cases than previous day. Hopefully, they are all now reaching their peak and perhaps signs than cases will start to decline.
STOP PRESS Reports from BBC state that large number of new deaths in Spain overnight - 832 and now are 5,690 v 5,138 reported at midnight, and total cases are now 72,248 v 65,719 at midnight.
Germany is slightly behind the curve and their numbers increased a little.
UK and US are at least 2/3 weeks behind the curve and their numbers are growing and I suspect will continue to grow for a few more weeks until the peak is reached. As I have been projecting for a while now UK is exactly where Italy was on 13th March (IT 14,955 - UK 14,543).
Daily Change in Cases/Deaths
Table below shows the daily increase in new cases and new deaths by country.
i.e difference between latest figures v previous days figures to show whether numbers are increasing or decreasing.
| Country |
New Cases
26 Mar
|
New Cases
27 Mar
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
26 Mar
|
Deaths
27 Mar
|
Death Increase |
| IT | 6,203 | 5,909 | -294 | 712 | 919 | 207 |
| ES | 8,271 | 7,933 | -338 | 718 | 773 | 55 |
| DE | 6,625 | 6,933 | 368 | 61 | 84 | 23 |
| FR | 3,922 | 3,809 | -113 | 365 | 299 | -66 |
| UK | 2,129 | 2,885 | 756 | 113 | 181 | 68 |
| US | 17,224 | 18,691 | 1,467 | 268 | 401 | 133 |
Daily Change
Table below shows latest actual figures v previous day's actual figures
| 27/03/2020 | |||||||
| Daily | 27-Mar | 26 Mar (-1 Day) | |||||
| Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
| IT | 5,909 | 86,498 | 9,134 | 10.6% | 80,589 | 8,215 | 10.2% |
| ES | 7,933 | 65,719 | 5,138 | 7.8% | 57,786 | 4,365 | 7.6% |
| DE | 6,993 | 50,871 | 351 | 0.7% | 43,938 | 267 | 0.6% |
| FR | 3,809 | 32,964 | 1,995 | 6.1% | 29,155 | 1,696 | 5.8% |
| UK | 2,885 | 14,543 | 759 | 5.2% | 11,658 | 578 | 5.0% |
| US | 18,691 | 104,126 | 1,696 | 1.6% | 85,435 | 1,295 | 1.5% |
Weekly Change
Table shows actual latest figures v actual figures one week ago.
| Weekly | 27-Mar | 20 Mar (-1 Week) | |||||
| Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
| IT | 5,909 | 86,498 | 9,134 | 10.6% | 47,021 | 4,032 | 8.6% |
| ES | 7,933 | 65,719 | 5,138 | 7.8% | 18,077 | 1093 | 6.0% |
| DE | 6,993 | 50,871 | 351 | 0.7% | 19,848 | 68 | 0.3% |
| FR | 3,809 | 32,964 | 1,995 | 6.1% | 12,612 | 450 | 3.6% |
| UK | 2,885 | 14,543 | 759 | 5.2% | 3,983 | 177 | 4.4% |
| US | 18,691 | 104,126 | 1,696 | 1.6% | 19,367 | 255 | 1.3% |
Daily/Weekly increase inCase/Death Factor
Table shows the rate of increase as a percentage for actual latest figure v previous day's figures and figures one week ago
| Daily | Weekly | |||
| Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
| IT | 107.3% | 103.6% | 184.0% | 123.1% |
| ES | 113.7% | 103.5% | 363.6% | 129.3% |
| DE | 115.8% | 113.5% | 256.3% | 201.4% |
| FR | 113.1% | 104.0% | 261.4% | 169.6% |
| UK | 124.7% | 105.3% | 365.1% | 117.4% |
| US | 121.9% | 107.5% | 537.6% | 123.7% |
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