Not really much change on yesterday. Thankfully Italy's new cases for the last 4 days have been lower than the previous 3 days, so let's all hope that this is a sign that virus infections are beginning to reduce and that the affect of the lockdown on 9th March is beginning to show results.
The sobering figure I learned today was that so far in UK only around 97,019 (source) people have been tested. With 9,529 confirmed cases does it correlate that around 10% of those tested are infected? If so, then with a population of 67.8 million that means potentially 6.78 million cases and a death rate of currently 5% we could be looking at almost 340,000 deaths!!!
NOTE These are NOT official figures just my own projections of worst case scenario based on current figures which could be completely skewed as 'obviously' those tested are presumably already showing potential symptoms - which is why they are tested. The latest official estimate is that there may be 20,000 UK deaths.
A couple of days ago I posted a chart from John Burn-Murdoch from the Financial Times which mapped each country's trajectory. Yesterday, again I was speculating on where UK was in relation to Italy. Today's latest chart of deaths shows that Spain appears to be ahead (i.e. worse) than Italy and UK is slightly ahead and France virtually tracking Italy with Germany doing the same.
NB I have had to copy charts as no way to link them as moving twitter feed. If author objects then leave comment and they will be removed.
NB I have had to copy charts as no way to link them as moving twitter feed. If author objects then leave comment and they will be removed.
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| Click to enlarge |
Here is a breakdown of infections in UK by NHS region (source)
| NHS Region | Total Cases |
| East of England | 480 |
| London | 3,247 |
| Midlands | 1,296 |
| North East and Yorkshire | 698 |
| North West | 703 |
| South East | 876 |
| South West | 397 |
Here are today's stats from Worldometer .
| 25/03/2020 | |||||||
| Daily | 25-Mar | 24 Mar (-1 Day) | |||||
| Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
| IT | 5,210 | 74,386 | 7,503 | 10.1% | 69,176 | 6,820 | 9.9% |
| ES | 7,457 | 49,515 | 3,647 | 7.4% | 42,058 | 2,991 | 7.1% |
| DE | 4,332 | 37,323 | 206 | 0.6% | 32,991 | 151 | 0.5% |
| FR | 2,929 | 25,233 | 1,331 | 5.3% | 22,304 | 1,100 | 4.9% |
| UK | 1,452 | 9,529 | 465 | 4.9% | 8,077 | 422 | 5.2% |
| Weekly | 25-Mar | 18 Mar (-1 Week) | |||||
| Country | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
| IT | 5,210 | 74,386 | 7,503 | 10.1% | 35,713 | 2,978 | 8.3% |
| ES | 7,457 | 49,515 | 3,647 | 7.4% | 14,769 | 638 | 4.3% |
| DE | 4,332 | 37,323 | 206 | 0.6% | 12,327 | 28 | 0.2% |
| FR | 2,929 | 25,233 | 1,331 | 5.3% | 9,134 | 264 | 2.9% |
| UK | 1,452 | 9,529 | 465 | 4.9% | 2,626 | 104 | 4.0% |
| Daily | Weekly | |||
| Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
| IT | 107.5% | 102.3% | 208.3% | 121.0% |
| ES | 117.7% | 103.6% | 335.3% | 170.5% |
| DE | 113.1% | 120.6% | 302.8% | 243.0% |
| FR | 113.1% | 107.0% | 276.3% | 182.5% |
| UK | 118.0% | 93.4% | 362.9% | 123.2% |
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