COVID-19 5th May 2020

Summary

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	1,221	87.90%	195	112.1%	73.96%	26.04%	Inc.
ES	1,179	76.91%	164	100.0%	85.50%	14.50%	Inc.
DE	488	70.01%	127	235.2%	94.94%	5.06%	Red.
FR	769	258.92%	306	226.7%	67.04%	32.96%	Red.
UK	3,985	91.84%	288	91.4%	12.62%	87.38%	Inc.
US	24,713	90.36%	1,323	114.6%	74.49%	25.51%	Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases reduce by 168 (87.9%), deaths increase by 21 (112.07%), active cases reduce and are now 7.36% below peak.

ES - new cases reduce by 354 (76.91%), deaths remain the same 164 (100%), active cases reduce and are now 26.71% below peak.

FR - new cases increase by 472 (258.9%), deaths increase by 171 (226.67%), active cases increase and are now 2.49% below peak.

DE - new cases reduce by 209 (70.01%), deaths increase by 73 (235.19%), active cases reduce and are now 61.66% below peak.

US - new cases reduce by 2,635 (90.36%), deaths increase by 169 (114.64%), active cases increase.

UK - new cases reduce by 354 (3,985 91.84%) and are below 3 day moving average (4,377), deaths reduce by 27 (91.43%) and are below 3 day moving average (408), active cases increase.

It looks like UK is 'finally' updating recovered cases as yesterday there were 344 and today 4,150.

UK Testing as of 5pm 3 May 2020

No. Tests:              85,186

No. people tested: 62,956

Total Tests:               1,291,591

Total people tested:    945,291

Mobile Phone app to contact trace

The only realistic way out of lockdown is to contact trace, but first we must get the no. of new infections down.  Trails have started in Isle Of Wight for a mobile phone app.  It seems that a phone app is the solution to everything these days - a few points to note:

1/ Singapore has already tried it and there was only 20% take up.

2/ apparently it is only viable if there is a 60% of the population take up

2.1/ what percentage of UK population has a mobile phone? According to these stats 95% of UK households own a mobile phone but that does not mean 95% of total population as there are approx 30m household and a population of 67m.

2.2/ what percentage will install the app?

2.3/ how many will have the app running at all times?

2.4/ it requires bluetooth, so even if app running will phones run out of battery regularly?

2.5/ how open is it to hacking and malicious false positives?

Finally, I would imagine the most vulnerable (over 65s) are the least likely to a/ own a mobile phone and b/ be savvy enough to install and run the app at all times.

Here's a chart that proves the point i.e. only 15% of over 65s own a mobile phone (in 2015) and only 55% between 55-65.

Another report by Deloitte shows a figure of 88% in 2019 (60.3m) and yet another in May 2020 claims 82.9% (55.5m).  So basically it's somewhere between 80-95%.

So let's break that down:

60% population is 40.2m

assume 90%/83% of population own a mobile phone is 60.3m / 55.5m

This would mean that between 67% (40.2/60.3) and 72.4% (40.2/55.5) of all phone owners need to install and run the app to get 60% population coverage needed.

Don't get me wrong we need all tools available to combat the virus but I don't think this app alone is going to be the silver bullet.

It will be interesting to see the results of the trial.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	211,938	100,288	111,650	82,571	29,079	73.96%	26.04%
ES	248,301	72,925	175,376	149,948	25,428	85.50%	14.50%
DE	166,152	27,937	138,215	131,222	6,993	94.94%	5.06%
FR	169,462	92,992	76,470	51,269	25,201	67.04%	32.96%
UK	190,584	157,700	32,884	4,150	28,734	12.62%	87.38%
US	1,212,835	938,721	274,114	204,193	69,921	74.49%	25.51%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 4 May	New Cases 3 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 4 May	Deaths 3 May	Death Increase
IT	1,221	1,389	-168	195	174	21
ES	1,179	1,533	-354	164	164	0
DE	488	697	-209	127	54	73
FR	769	297	472	306	135	171
UK	3,985	4,339	-354	288	315	-27
US	24,713	27,348	-2,635	1,323	1,154	169

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	04-May				03-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,221	211,938	29,079	13.7%	210,717	28,884	13.7%
ES	1,179	248,301	25,428	10.2%	247,122	25,264	10.2%
DE	488	166,152	6,993	4.2%	165,664	6,866	4.1%
FR	769	169,462	25,201	14.9%	168,693	24,895	14.8%
UK	3,985	190,584	28,734	15.1%	186,599	28,446	15.2%
US	24,713	1,212,835	69,921	5.8%	1,188,122	68,598	5.8%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	04-May				27-Apr
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,221	211,938	29,079	13.7%	199,414	26,977	13.5%
ES	1,179	248,301	25,428	10.2%	229,422	23,521	10.3%
DE	488	166,152	6,993	4.2%	158,758	6,126	3.9%
FR	769	169,462	25,201	14.9%	163,273	23,293	14.3%
UK	3,985	190,584	28,734	15.1%	157,149	24,393	15.5%
US	24,713	1,212,835	69,921	5.8%	1,010,356	56,795	5.6%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.6%	100.1%	106.3%	101.4%
ES	100.5%	100.2%	108.2%	99.9%
DE	100.3%	101.6%	104.7%	109.1%
FR	100.5%	100.8%	103.8%	104.2%
UK	102.1%	98.9%	121.3%	97.1%
US	102.1%	99.9%	120.0%	102.6%