Summary
New
Cases
|
Change | Deaths | Change |
Rec'ry
Rate
|
Death
Rate
|
||
IT | 1,221 | 87.90% | 195 | 112.1% | 73.96% | 26.04% | Inc. |
ES | 1,179 | 76.91% | 164 | 100.0% | 85.50% | 14.50% | Inc. |
DE | 488 | 70.01% | 127 | 235.2% | 94.94% | 5.06% | Red. |
FR | 769 | 258.92% | 306 | 226.7% | 67.04% | 32.96% | Red. |
UK | 3,985 | 91.84% | 288 | 91.4% | 12.62% | 87.38% | Inc. |
US | 24,713 | 90.36% | 1,323 | 114.6% | 74.49% | 25.51% | Inc. |
Commentary
IT - new cases reduce by 168 (87.9%), deaths increase by 21 (112.07%), active cases reduce and are now 7.36% below peak.
ES - new cases reduce by 354 (76.91%), deaths remain the same 164 (100%), active cases reduce and are now 26.71% below peak.
FR - new cases increase by 472 (258.9%), deaths increase by 171 (226.67%), active cases increase and are now 2.49% below peak.
DE - new cases reduce by 209 (70.01%), deaths increase by 73 (235.19%), active cases reduce and are now 61.66% below peak.
US - new cases reduce by 2,635 (90.36%), deaths increase by 169 (114.64%), active cases increase.
UK - new cases reduce by 354 (3,985 91.84%) and are below 3 day moving average (4,377), deaths reduce by 27 (91.43%) and are below 3 day moving average (408), active cases increase.
It looks like UK is 'finally' updating recovered cases as yesterday there were 344 and today 4,150.
UK Testing as of 5pm 3 May 2020
No. Tests: 85,186
No. people tested: 62,956
Total Tests: 1,291,591
Total people tested: 945,291
Mobile Phone app to contact trace
The only realistic way out of lockdown is to contact trace, but first we must get the no. of new infections down. Trails have started in Isle Of Wight for a mobile phone app. It seems that a phone app is the solution to everything these days - a few points to note:
1/ Singapore has already tried it and there was only 20% take up.
2/ apparently it is only viable if there is a 60% of the population take up
2.1/ what percentage of UK population has a mobile phone? According to these stats 95% of UK households own a mobile phone but that does not mean 95% of total population as there are approx 30m household and a population of 67m.
2.2/ what percentage will install the app?
2.3/ how many will have the app running at all times?
2.4/ it requires bluetooth, so even if app running will phones run out of battery regularly?
2.5/ how open is it to hacking and malicious false positives?
Finally, I would imagine the most vulnerable (over 65s) are the least likely to a/ own a mobile phone and b/ be savvy enough to install and run the app at all times.
Here's a chart that proves the point i.e. only 15% of over 65s own a mobile phone (in 2015) and only 55% between 55-65.
Another report by Deloitte shows a figure of 88% in 2019 (60.3m) and yet another in May 2020 claims 82.9% (55.5m). So basically it's somewhere between 80-95%.
So let's break that down:
60% population is 40.2m
assume 90%/83% of population own a mobile phone is 60.3m / 55.5m
This would mean that between 67% (40.2/60.3) and 72.4% (40.2/55.5) of all phone owners need to install and run the app to get 60% population coverage needed.
Don't get me wrong we need all tools available to combat the virus but I don't think this app alone is going to be the silver bullet.
It will be interesting to see the results of the trial.
Latest stats from Worldometers
Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate
Total | Active | Conc. | Recvd. | Deaths | Recvd% | Death% | |
IT | 211,938 | 100,288 | 111,650 | 82,571 | 29,079 | 73.96% | 26.04% |
ES | 248,301 | 72,925 | 175,376 | 149,948 | 25,428 | 85.50% | 14.50% |
DE | 166,152 | 27,937 | 138,215 | 131,222 | 6,993 | 94.94% | 5.06% |
FR | 169,462 | 92,992 | 76,470 | 51,269 | 25,201 | 67.04% | 32.96% |
UK | 190,584 | 157,700 | 32,884 | 4,150 | 28,734 | 12.62% | 87.38% |
US | 1,212,835 | 938,721 | 274,114 | 204,193 | 69,921 | 74.49% | 25.51% |
Latest v previous day - increase / decrease
Country |
New Cases
4 May
|
New Cases
3 May
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
4 May
|
Deaths
3 May
|
Death
Increase
|
IT | 1,221 | 1,389 | -168 | 195 | 174 | 21 |
ES | 1,179 | 1,533 | -354 | 164 | 164 | 0 |
DE | 488 | 697 | -209 | 127 | 54 | 73 |
FR | 769 | 297 | 472 | 306 | 135 | 171 |
UK | 3,985 | 4,339 | -354 | 288 | 315 | -27 |
US | 24,713 | 27,348 | -2,635 | 1,323 | 1,154 | 169 |
Latest v previous day - actuals
Daily | 04-May | 03-May | |||||
Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
IT | 1,221 | 211,938 | 29,079 | 13.7% | 210,717 | 28,884 | 13.7% |
ES | 1,179 | 248,301 | 25,428 | 10.2% | 247,122 | 25,264 | 10.2% |
DE | 488 | 166,152 | 6,993 | 4.2% | 165,664 | 6,866 | 4.1% |
FR | 769 | 169,462 | 25,201 | 14.9% | 168,693 | 24,895 | 14.8% |
UK | 3,985 | 190,584 | 28,734 | 15.1% | 186,599 | 28,446 | 15.2% |
US | 24,713 | 1,212,835 | 69,921 | 5.8% | 1,188,122 | 68,598 | 5.8% |
Latest v one week ago - actuals
Weekly | 04-May | 27-Apr | |||||
Ctry | New Cases | Total Cases | No. Deaths | Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
IT | 1,221 | 211,938 | 29,079 | 13.7% | 199,414 | 26,977 | 13.5% |
ES | 1,179 | 248,301 | 25,428 | 10.2% | 229,422 | 23,521 | 10.3% |
DE | 488 | 166,152 | 6,993 | 4.2% | 158,758 | 6,126 | 3.9% |
FR | 769 | 169,462 | 25,201 | 14.9% | 163,273 | 23,293 | 14.3% |
UK | 3,985 | 190,584 | 28,734 | 15.1% | 157,149 | 24,393 | 15.5% |
US | 24,713 | 1,212,835 | 69,921 | 5.8% | 1,010,356 | 56,795 | 5.6% |
Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase
Daily | Weekly | |||
Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
IT | 100.6% | 100.1% | 106.3% | 101.4% |
ES | 100.5% | 100.2% | 108.2% | 99.9% |
DE | 100.3% | 101.6% | 104.7% | 109.1% |
FR | 100.5% | 100.8% | 103.8% | 104.2% |
UK | 102.1% | 98.9% | 121.3% | 97.1% |
US | 102.1% | 99.9% | 120.0% | 102.6% |
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