Tuesday, 5 May 2020

COVID-19 5th May 2020


Summary

New
Cases
Change Deaths Change
Rec'ry
Rate
Death
Rate
IT 1,221 87.90% 195 112.1% 73.96% 26.04%  Inc.
ES 1,179 76.91% 164 100.0% 85.50% 14.50%  Inc.
DE 488 70.01% 127 235.2% 94.94% 5.06%  Red.
FR 769 258.92% 306 226.7% 67.04% 32.96%  Red.
UK 3,985 91.84% 288 91.4% 12.62% 87.38%  Inc.
US 24,713 90.36% 1,323 114.6% 74.49% 25.51%  Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases reduce by 168 (87.9%), deaths increase by 21 (112.07%), active cases reduce and are now 7.36% below peak.

ES - new cases reduce by 354 (76.91%), deaths remain the same 164 (100%), active cases reduce and are now 26.71% below peak.

FR - new cases increase by 472 (258.9%), deaths increase by 171 (226.67%), active cases increase and are now 2.49% below peak.

DE - new cases reduce by 209 (70.01%), deaths increase by 73 (235.19%), active cases reduce and are now 61.66% below peak.

US - new cases reduce by 2,635 (90.36%), deaths increase by 169 (114.64%), active cases increase.

UK - new cases reduce by 354 (3,985 91.84%) and are below 3 day moving average (4,377)deaths reduce by 27 (91.43%) and are below 3 day moving average (408), active cases increase.
It looks like UK is 'finally' updating recovered cases as yesterday there were 344 and today 4,150.

UK Testing as of 5pm 3 May 2020

No. Tests:              85,186
No. people tested: 62,956

Total Tests:               1,291,591
Total people tested:    945,291

Mobile Phone app to contact trace
The only realistic way out of lockdown is to contact trace, but first we must get the no. of new infections down.  Trails have started in Isle Of Wight for a mobile phone app.  It seems that a phone app is the solution to everything these days - a few points to note:

1/ Singapore has already tried it and there was only 20% take up.
2/ apparently it is only viable if there is a 60% of the population take up
2.1/ what percentage of UK population has a mobile phone? According to these stats 95% of UK households own a mobile phone but that does not mean 95% of total population as there are approx 30m household and a population of 67m.
2.2/ what percentage will install the app?
2.3/ how many will have the app running at all times?
2.4/ it requires bluetooth, so even if app running will phones run out of battery regularly?
2.5/ how open is it to hacking and malicious false positives?

Finally, I would imagine the most vulnerable (over 65s) are the least likely to a/ own a mobile phone and b/ be savvy enough to install and run the app at all times.

Here's a chart that proves the point i.e. only 15% of over 65s own a mobile phone (in 2015) and only 55% between 55-65.

Another report by Deloitte shows a figure of 88% in 2019 (60.3m) and yet another in May 2020 claims 82.9% (55.5m).  So basically it's somewhere between 80-95%.

So let's break that down:
60% population is 40.2m
assume 90%/83% of population own a mobile phone is 60.3m / 55.5m
This would mean that between 67% (40.2/60.3) and 72.4% (40.2/55.5) of all phone owners need to install and run the app to get 60% population coverage needed.

Don't get me wrong we need all tools available to combat the virus but I don't think this app alone is going to be the silver bullet.

It will be interesting to see the results of the trial.



Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

Total Active Conc. Recvd. Deaths Recvd% Death%
IT 211,938 100,288 111,650 82,571 29,079 73.96% 26.04%
ES 248,301 72,925 175,376 149,948 25,428 85.50% 14.50%
DE 166,152 27,937 138,215 131,222 6,993 94.94% 5.06%
FR 169,462 92,992 76,470 51,269 25,201 67.04% 32.96%
UK 190,584 157,700 32,884 4,150 28,734 12.62% 87.38%
US 1,212,835 938,721 274,114 204,193 69,921 74.49% 25.51%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country
New Cases
4 May
New Cases
3 May
New Case Increase
 
Deaths
4 May
 
Deaths
3 May
 
Death
Increase
IT 1,221 1,389 -168 195 174 21
ES 1,179 1,533 -354 164 164 0
DE 488 697 -209 127 54 73
FR 769 297 472 306 135 171
UK 3,985 4,339 -354 288 315 -27
US 24,713 27,348 -2,635 1,323 1,154 169

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily 04-May 03-May
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 1,221 211,938 29,079 13.7% 210,717 28,884 13.7%
ES 1,179 248,301 25,428 10.2% 247,122 25,264 10.2%
DE 488 166,152 6,993 4.2% 165,664 6,866 4.1%
FR 769 169,462 25,201 14.9% 168,693 24,895 14.8%
UK 3,985 190,584 28,734 15.1% 186,599 28,446 15.2%
US 24,713 1,212,835 69,921 5.8% 1,188,122 68,598 5.8%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly 04-May 27-Apr
Ctry New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 1,221 211,938 29,079 13.7% 199,414 26,977 13.5%
ES 1,179 248,301 25,428 10.2% 229,422 23,521 10.3%
DE 488 166,152 6,993 4.2% 158,758 6,126 3.9%
FR 769 169,462 25,201 14.9% 163,273 23,293 14.3%
UK 3,985 190,584 28,734 15.1% 157,149 24,393 15.5%
US 24,713 1,212,835 69,921 5.8% 1,010,356 56,795 5.6%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 100.6% 100.1% 106.3% 101.4%
ES 100.5% 100.2% 108.2% 99.9%
DE 100.3% 101.6% 104.7% 109.1%
FR 100.5% 100.8% 103.8% 104.2%
UK 102.1% 98.9% 121.3% 97.1%
US 102.1% 99.9% 120.0% 102.6%

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