COVID-19 15th May 2020

Summary

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	992	111.71%	262	134.4%	78.61%	21.39%	Inc.
ES	1,551	98.48%	217	117.9%	87.22%	12.78%	Inc.
DE	877	94.61%	67	85.9%	94.99%	5.01%	Inc.
FR	810	N/A	351	422.9%	68.49%	31.51%	Inc.
UK	3,446	106.29%	428	86.6%	9.09%	90.91%	Red.
US	27,246	125.49%	1,715	96.8%	78.54%	21.46%	Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases +104 (111.71%), deaths +67 (134.36%), active cases -2,017 (70.61% of peak)

ES - new cases -24 (99.48%), deaths +33 (117.93%), active cases -1,919 (59.24% of peak)

FR - new cases +810 (N/A as 0 yesterday), deaths +268 (422.89%), active cases -473 (96.3% of peak)

DE - new cases -50 (94.61%), deaths -11 (85.9%), active cases -790 (22.98% of peak)

US - new cases +5,534 (125.49%), deaths -57 (96.78%), active cases +17,762 (100% of peak)

UK - new cases +204 (106.29%), deaths -66 (86.64%), active cases ???

Regular readers of this blog will know my 'frustration' at UK not publishing the no. of recovered cases, as from this figure we can see whether or not 'actual' live cases are reducing.  For example we can see clearly that DE has now got the virus under control with active cases reducing by over 77%, ES active cases down over 40%, IT down around 30%.  Today not even figures of total active cases has been provided. All us mere mortals can do is study the figures published and draw our own conclusions.  

I watched a very angry transport trade union leader (Mike Cash General Secretary of RMT (Rail, Maritime & Transport workers)  Union) on BBC Question Time last night make the point that the government have no strategy for public transport and I have to agree.  They have published a statement in response to Grant Shapps on RMT website. 'Releasing' the public 2 days in advance on a reduced capacity service (50%) without even advice (instruction) to wear face masks is totally irresponsible. MIck Cash claims that the government has 'jumped the gun'.  Bus drivers should be wearing PPE as  they are 'trapped' on a bus all day with hundreds (if not thousands) of different people boarding the bus all day long.  Think about it - the breath of hundreds of people circulating within a confined space!

South Korea has identified 100 new positive cases linked to one man who attended 3 nightclubs in Seoul. It has been reported that 32,000 people have been contact traced and advised to be tested with 11,000 already tested.  This is in a country that has only 11,018 total reported cases and less than 1,000 (969) active cases and 260 reported deaths.

UK Testing - Last 7 days

	Daily		Cumulative
	No. Tests	People  Tested	No. Tests	People  Tested	% No. People Tested	% of  Pop.
07-May	97,029	67,443	1,631,561	1,207,069	69.51%	2.40%
08-May	96,878	63,339	1,728,443	1,270,408	65.38%	2.54%
09-May	92,837	64,362	1,821,280	1,334,770	69.33%	2.68%
10-May	100,490	65,337	1,921,770	1,400,197	65.02%	2.83%
11-May	85,293	60,410	2,007,146	1,460,517	70.83%	2.95%
12-May	87,063	61,741	2,094,209	1,522,258	70.92%	3.08%
13-May	126,064	71,644	2,219,281	1,593,902	56.83%	3.26%

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	223,096	76,440	146,656	115,288	31,368	78.61%	21.39%
ES	272,646	58,845	213,801	186,480	27,321	87.22%	12.78%
DE	174,975	16,747	158,228	150,300	7,928	94.99%	5.01%
FR	178,870	91,840	87,030	59,605	27,425	68.49%	31.51%
UK	233,151	196,175	36,976	3,362	33,614	9.09%	90.91%
US	1,457,593	1,052,654	404,939	318,027	86,912	78.54%	21.46%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 14 May	New Cases 13 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 14 May	Deaths 13 May	Death Increase
IT	992	888	104	262	195	67
ES	1,551	1,575	-24	217	184	33
DE	877	927	-50	67	78	-11
FR	810	0	810	351	83	268
UK	3,446	3,242	204	428	494	-66
US	27,246	21,712	5,534	1,715	1,772	-57

Latest v previous day - actuals

Day	14-May				13-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	992	223,096	31,368	14.1%	222,104	31,106	14.0%
ES	1,551	272,646	27,321	10.0%	271,095	27,104	10.0%
DE	877	174,975	7,928	4.5%	174,098	7,861	4.5%
FR	810	178,870	27,425	15.3%	178,225	27,074	15.2%
UK	3,446	233,151	33,614	14.4%	229,705	33,186	14.4%
US	27,246	1,457,593	86,912	6.0%	1,430,348	85,197	6.0%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Week	14-May				07-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	992	223,096	31,368	14.1%	215,858	29,958	13.9%
ES	1,551	272,646	27,321	10.0%	256,855	26,970	10.5%
DE	877	174,975	7,928	4.5%	169,430	7,392	4.4%
FR	810	178,870	27,425	15.3%	174,791	25,987	14.9%
UK	3,446	233,151	33,614	14.4%	206,715	30,615	14.8%
US	27,246	1,457,593	86,912	6.0%	1,296,623	76,928	5.9%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.4%	100.4%	103.4%	101.3%
ES	100.6%	100.2%	106.1%	95.4%
DE	100.5%	100.3%	103.3%	103.9%
FR	100.4%	100.9%	102.3%	103.1%
UK	101.5%	99.8%	112.8%	97.3%
US	101.9%	100.1%	112.4%	100.5%