COVID-19 2nd May 2020

Summary

Global cases now approaching 3.5 million with almost 1/4 million deaths and 1 million recoveries.

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	1,965	104.97%	269	94.4%	73.48%	26.52%	Inc.
ES	3,648	133.14%	281	104.9%	85.16%	14.84%	Inc.
DE	1,068	72.65%	113	72.4%	94.96%	5.04%	Inc.
FR	168	22.16%	219	75.8%	67.12%	32.88%	Inc.
UK	6,202	102.82%	739	109.6%	1.24%	98.76%	Red.
US	36,007	116.80%	1,897	86.2%	71.07%	28.93%	Inc.

As it's the start of a new month let's reflect on the growth between 1 Apr and 1 May

	01-May			1 Apr (-1 Month)
Ctry	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	207,428	28,236	13.6%	110,574	13,155	11.9%
ES	242,988	24,824	10.2%	104,118	9,387	9.0%
DE	164,077	6,736	4.1%	77,981	931	1.2%
FR	167,346	24,595	14.7%	56,989	4,032	7.1%
UK	177,454	27,510	15.5%	29,474	2,352	8.0%
US	1,131,030	65,753	5.8%	215,003	5,102	2.4%

Growth

Ctry	Case Growth	Death Growth
IT	187.59%	114.42%
ES	233.38%	113.31%
DE	210.41%	343.87%
FR	293.65%	207.73%
UK	602.07%	194.27%
US	526.05%	244.99%

By Case Increase

Ctry	Case Growth
UK	602.07%
US	526.05%
FR	293.65%
ES	233.38%
DE	210.41%
IT	187.59%

By Death Rate

Ctry	Death Growth
DE	343.87%
US	244.99%
FR	207.73%
UK	194.27%
IT	114.42%
ES	113.31%

From the observations above Italy and Spain have fared the best. Whilst Germany's death rate increased the most it was from a very low start point of 1.2% and is still the lowest of all.  UK & US have seen the highest increase in cases (by a factor of 6 and 5.25 respectively) and must surely reach the peak soon?

Commentary

IT - new cases increase by 93 (104.97%), deaths reduce by 16 (94.39%), active cases reduce by 608 and are now 6,76% below peak.

ES - new cases increase by 908 (133.14%), deaths increase by 13 (104.85%), active cases reduce by 1,390 and are now 24.37% below peak.

FR - new cases reduce by 590 (22.16%), deaths reduce by 70 (75%), active cases reduce by 1,927 and are now 2.96% below peak.

DE - new cases reduce by 402 (77.65%), deaths reduce by 43 (72.44%), active cases reduce by 2,445 and are now 58.22% below peak.

US - new cases increase by 5,178 to 36,007 (116.8%) the 2nd highest figure to date, deaths reduce by 303 (86.23%), active cases increase by 24,871.

UK - new cases increase by 170 (102.82% to highest daily total (6,202) so far (probably as a result of increased testing), deaths increase by 65 (109.64%), active cases ?

UK Testing (source DHSCGovuk)

So somehow we got from 28,000 tests per day to 122,347 in a week!  It turns out that around 40,000 are postal tests that have only been sent and not returned but it's 'convenient' for the government to count these.

No. of tests:           122,347

no. people tested:   73,191

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	207,428	100,943	106,485	78,249	28,236	73.48%	26.52%
ES	242,988	75,714	167,274	142,450	24,824	85.16%	14.84%
DE	164,077	30,441	133,636	126,900	6,736	94.96%	5.04%
FR	167,346	92,540	74,806	50,211	24,595	67.12%	32.88%
UK	177,454	149,600	27,854	344	27,510	1.24%	98.76%
US	1,131,030	903,714	227,316	161,563	65,753	71.07%	28.93%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 1 May	New Cases 30 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 1 May	Deaths 30 Apr	Death Increase
IT	1,965	1,872	93	269	285	-16
ES	3,648	2,740	908	281	268	13
DE	1,068	1,470	-402	113	156	-43
FR	168	758	-590	219	289	-70
UK	6,202	6,032	170	739	674	65
US	36,007	30,829	5,178	1,897	2,200	-303

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	01-May				30-Apr
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,965	207,428	28,236	13.6%	205,463	27,967	13.6%
ES	3,648	242,988	24,824	10.2%	239,639	24,543	10.2%
DE	1,068	164,077	6,736	4.1%	163,009	6,623	4.1%
FR	168	167,346	24,595	14.7%	167,178	24,376	14.6%
UK	6,202	177,454	27,510	15.5%	171,253	26,771	15.6%
US	36,007	1,131,030	65,753	5.8%	1,095,023	63,856	5.8%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	01-May				24-Apr
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,965	207,428	28,236	13.6%	192,994	25,969	13.5%
ES	3,648	242,988	24,824	10.2%	219,764	22,525	10.2%
DE	1,068	164,077	6,736	4.1%	154,999	5,760	3.7%
FR	168	167,346	24,595	14.7%	159,208	22,245	14.0%
UK	6,202	177,454	27,510	15.5%	143,464	22,792	15.9%
US	36,007	1,131,030	65,753	5.8%	925,232	52,191	5.6%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase