COVID-19 12th May 2020

Summary

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	744	92.77%	179	108.5%	77.62%	22.38%	Inc.
ES	3,480	185.11%	123	86.0%	86.93%	13.07%	Inc.
DE	697	125.59%	92	460.0%	95.00%	5.00%	Red.
FR	453	145.19%	263	375.7%	68.04%	31.96%	Red.
UK	3,877	98.83%	210	78.4%	1.06%	98.94%	Red.
US	18,196	89.51%	1,008	134.4%	76.22%	23.78%	Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases -58 (92.77%), deaths +14 (108.48%), active cases -836 (76.19% of peak)

New cases have been below 1,000 for last 2 days - the lowest since 10 Mar.

ES - new cases +1,600 (185.11%), deaths -20 (86.01%), active cases +1,950 (63.87% of peak).

Spain began to relax lockdown about a week ago - so are this increase in new infections a  result of that?  The active cases have been decreasing daily since 23 Apr but increased for the first time yesterday since.

FR - new cases +141 (145.19%), deaths +193 (375.71%), active cases -317 (98.63% of peak)

DE - new cases +142 (125.59%), deaths +72 (460%), active cases -612 (26.48% of peak)

US - new cases -2,133 (89.51%), deaths +258 (134.4%), active cases +11,299 (100% peak)

Lowest no. of new cases (18,186) since 26 Mar (17,474) and last 2 days have seen lowest no. deaths since 1 Apr.

UK - new cases -46 (98.83%), deaths -58 (78.46%), active cases +3,667 (100% of peak)

UK Testing - last 7 days

Testing reached target of 100,000 for first time since 1 May.  Johnson announced new target of 200,000 by 1 Jun so figures need to double in 3 weeks ... let's see.

	Daily		Cumulative
	No. Tests	People  Tested	No. Tests	People  Tested	% No. People Tested
04-May	84,806	69,839	1,383,842	1,015,138	82.35%
05-May	69,463	57,006	1,448,010	1,072,144	82.07%
06-May	86,583	85,092	1,534,533	1,139,626	98.28%
07-May	97,029	67,443	1,631,561	1,207,069	69.51%
08-May	96,878	63,339	1,728,443	1,270,408	65.38%
09-May	92,837	64,362	1,821,280	1,334,770	69.33%
10-May	100,490	65,337	1,921,770	1,400,197	65.02%

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	219,814	82,488	137,326	106,587	30,739	77.62%	22.38%
ES	268,143	63,553	204,590	177,846	26,744	86.93%	13.07%
DE	172,576	19,298	153,278	145,617	7,661	95.00%	5.00%
FR	177,423	94,056	83,367	56,724	26,643	68.04%	31.96%
UK	223,060	190,651	32,409	344	32,065	1.06%	98.94%
US	1,385,834	1,041,814	344,020	262,225	81,795	76.22%	23.78%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 11 May	New Cases 10 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 11 May	Deaths 10 May	Death Increase
IT	744	802	-58	179	165	14
ES	3,480	1,880	1,600	123	143	-20
DE	697	555	142	92	20	72
FR	453	312	141	263	70	193
UK	3,877	3,923	-46	210	268	-58
US	18,196	20,329	-2,133	1,008	750	258

Latest v previous day - actuals

Day	11-May				10-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	744	219,814	30,739	14.0%	219,070	30,560	13.9%
ES	3,480	268,143	26,744	10.0%	264,663	26,621	10.1%
DE	697	172,576	7,661	4.4%	171,879	7,569	4.4%
FR	453	177,423	26,643	15.0%	176,970	26,380	14.9%
UK	3,877	223,060	32,065	14.4%	219,183	31,855	14.5%
US	18,196	1,385,834	81,795	5.9%	1,367,638	80,787	5.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Week	11-May				04-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	744	219,814	30,739	14.0%	211,938	29,079	13.7%
ES	3,480	268,143	26,744	10.0%	248,301	25,428	10.2%
DE	697	172,576	7,661	4.4%	166,152	6,993	4.2%
FR	453	177,423	26,643	15.0%	169,462	25,201	14.9%
UK	3,877	223,060	32,065	14.4%	190,584	28,734	15.1%
US	18,196	1,385,834	81,795	5.9%	1,212,835	69,921	5.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.3%	100.2%	103.7%	101.9%
ES	101.3%	99.2%	108.0%	97.4%
DE	100.4%	100.8%	103.9%	105.5%
FR	100.3%	100.7%	104.7%	101.0%
UK	101.8%	98.9%	117.0%	95.3%
US	101.3%	99.9%	114.3%	102.4%

This week v one week ago - percentage rate increase

The table below shows change between this weeks change and last weeks change to show whether cases/deaths are increasing or  reducing.

In summary all countries weekly cases are reducing except for France and all countries weekly death rate is reducing except for Italy.

	Week 11 May		Week 4 May		Weekly Change
Ctry	Total Cases Inc. Factor	Death Rate  Inc. Factor	Total Cases Inc. Factor	Death Rate  Inc. Factor	Case Change	Death Change
IT	103.7%	101.9%	106.3%	101.4%	-2.6%	0.5%
ES	108.0%	97.4%	108.2%	99.9%	-0.2%	-2.5%
DE	103.9%	105.5%	104.7%	109.1%	-0.8%	-3.6%
FR	104.7%	101.0%	103.8%	104.2%	0.9%	-3.3%
UK	117.0%	95.3%	121.3%	97.1%	-4.2%	-1.8%
US	114.3%	102.4%	120.0%	102.6%	-5.8%	-0.2%