COVID-19 6th April 2020

Summary

For the first day US has had a lower number of new cases down almost 9,000 from previous day 25,316 v 34,196.

Spain has also seen a big reduction in new cases down 1,656 (5,478 v 7,134)

Italy had 489 fewer new cases and 156 fewer deaths.

Germany has now exceeded 100,000 cases but had 902 fewer new cases and 29 fewer deaths.

France had significantly lower new cases 4,902 (2,886 v 7,788) and 535 fewer deaths.

The UK bucks the trend and saw the highest number of new cases to date by a significant number (1,453) 5,903 5 Apr v 4,450 on 3 Apr.  It is inevitable that the predicted 50,000 cases will be exceeded tomorrow, which puts UK on exactly the same trajectory as Italy.

I find it difficult to comprehend that after 2 weeks of lockdown that we are still seeing new cases increase at the highest rate so far.  That's a 33% increase in cases from the previous highest number on 3 Apr.  If the incubation period is on average 5 to 7 days then that means people are still getting infected well into the lockdown.  WHO states that the incubation period can be anywhere between 1-14 days but that the average is 5 days.

It is concerning that whilst every other major western country has seen new cases decline the UK has seen its worst day!  Could this be the peak? Let's hope so.

Comparing UK stats against Italy:

Italy locked down on 9 Mar (7,375 cases) and peaked on 21 Mar (53,578 cases) i.e. 12 days later before new cases started to decline.

UK locked down on 24 Mar (6,650 cases) 12 days later is 4 Apr (latest figures are for 5 Apr i.e. 13 days 47,806).  I suspect that we will have another high day today taking figures over 50,000 perhaps to just over 53,000 and then let's hope that this is UK peak and we start to see new cases decline.  Having said that though there has still not been less that 4,000 new cases per day in Italy for 15 consecutive days after their peak of 6,556 on 21 Mar (and 7 of those days they were over 5,000), so I'm afraid that there is still a long way to go.  It makes you wonder what China is doing to keep new cases around 50 per day since 1 Mar? (1,682 new cases in 36 days)

Latest stats from Worldometers.

Latest v previous day increase/decrease

Country	New Cases 5 Apr	New Cases 4 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 5 Apr	Deaths 4 Apr	Death Increase
IT	4,316	4,805	-489	525	681	-156
ES	5,478	6,969	-1,491	694	749	-55
DE	4,031	4,933	-902	140	169	-29
FR	2,886	7,788	-4,902	518	1053	-535
UK	5,903	3,735	2,168	621	708	-87
US	25,316	34,196	-8,880	1,164	1060	104

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	05-Apr				04-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,316	128,948	15,887	12.3%	124,632	15,362	12.3%
ES	5,478	131,646	12,641	9.6%	126,168	11,947	9.5%
DE	4,031	100,123	1,584	1.6%	96,092	1,444	1.5%
FR	2,886	92,839	8,078	8.7%	89,953	7,560	8.4%
UK	5,903	47,806	4,934	10.3%	41,903	4,313	10.3%
US	25,316	336,673	9,616	2.9%	311,357	8,452	2.7%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	05-Apr				29-Mar
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,316	128,948	15,887	12.3%	97,689	10,779	11.0%
ES	5,478	131,646	12,641	9.6%	80,110	6,803	8.5%
DE	4,031	100,123	1,584	1.6%	62,435	541	0.9%
FR	2,886	92,839	8,078	8.7%	40,174	2,606	6.5%
UK	5,903	47,806	4,934	10.3%	19,522	1,228	6.3%
US	25,316	336,673	9,616	2.9%	143,491	2,583	1.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate of increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	103.5%	100.0%	132.0%	111.7%
ES	104.3%	101.4%	164.3%	113.1%
DE	104.2%	105.3%	160.4%	182.6%
FR	103.2%	103.5%	231.1%	134.1%
UK	114.1%	100.3%	244.9%	164.1%
US	108.1%	105.2%	234.6%	158.7%