COVID-19 24th April 2020

Summary

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	2,646	-21.67%	464	+5.8%	69.26%	30.74%	Increasing
ES	4,635	+10.07%	440	+1.1%	80.11%	19.89%	Increasing
DE	2,481	+13.03%	260	+11.9%	94.88%	5.12%	Reducing
FR	2,239	-7.21%	516	-5.4%	66.70%	33.30%	Increasing
UK	4,583	+2.97%	638	-19.6%	1.80%	98.20%	Reducing
US	31,900	+6.43%	2,777	+22.9%	63.10%	36.90%	Reducing

Commentary

US - new cases again exceed 30,000 (31,900) increasing by 1,927 (6.3%), deaths increased by 636 (22.9%).  The death toll now exceeds 50,000 (50,236).  New Jersey now exceeds 100,000 cases (100,025) and New York almost 270,000 (268,581). New York alone now has the 2nd highest no. of cases behind the US as a whole and New Jersey has 8th highest after Turkey.

Trump statement 24th April 2020:

President Trump made an 'incredulous' statement this morning suggesting that ultra-violet light and disinfectant may be a solution!

"So, suppose we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it's ultra-violet light or just very powerful light, and I think you said it hasn't been checked but you're going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside of the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you're going to test that too.  Sounds interesting. Right, and then i see the disinfectant. It knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see it gets on the lungs, and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it would be interesting to check that. So that - you're going to have to use medical doctors with - but it sounds interesting to me.  So we'll see, but the whole concept on the light the way it kills it in one minute, that's pretty powerful. I hope people enjoy the sun. And if it has an impact, that's great. I'm just hearing this, not for the fist time. I mean there's been a rumour that, you know, a very nice rumour, that you go outside of the sun or have heat and it does have an effect on other viruses. But now we get it from one of the greatest laboratories of the world, I have to say covers a lot more territory that just this. This is probably an easy thing, relatively speaking for you."

ES - new cases increase by 424 (4,211 10.07%) and have increased each day since low on 20 Mar 1,536, deaths increased by 5 (1.1%).

IT - new cases reduced 732 (-21.67%), deaths increased by 27 (5.8%). Active cases reduced for the 4th consecutive day (by 851) 108,257 19 Apr to 106,848 23 Apr, indicating that may be over the peak. 

FR - I'm not sure what is going on in France as each day their figures are being adjusted, yesterday total cases were 159,877 and today this has been adjusted to 155,194 and today's figure is less than what was reported yesterday 158,183.  Based on adjusted figures new cases reduced by 174 (-7.21%), deaths reduced by 28 (15.4%).

A comment on Worldometers:

"The French Government has corrected its case numbers after a quality and verification process of data from EMS & EHPAD establishments highlighted over-reporting and overestimation of cumulative cases"

DE - new cases increased by 286 (13.3%), deaths increased by 31 (11.9%). Active cases continue to reduce by 1,679 and are now 44,254 - 60.7% of peak of 72,865 6 Apr and the lowest since 27 Mar.

UK - new cases increased by 132 (2.97%), deaths reduced by 125 (-19.6%).

UK still looks like it is 1/2 days ahead on Italy's trajectory with Italy reaching 130,000 7 days, and 140,00 9 days, after 100,000 and UK reaching 130,000 in 6 days and approaching 140,000 in 7 days.

IT - 101,739 (30 Mar) 132,057 (6 Apr) 135,586 (7 Apr) / 139,422 (8 Apr)

UK -103,093 (16 Apr) 133,495 (22 Apr) / 138,078 (23 Apr)

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery Rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	189,973	106,848	83,125	57,576	25,549	69.26%	30.74%
ES	213,024	101,617	111,407	89,250	22,157	80.11%	19.89%
DE	153,129	44,254	108,875	103,300	5,575	94.88%	5.12%
FR	159,877	94,239	65,638	43,782	21,856	66.70%	33.30%
UK	138,078	118,996	19,082	344	18,738	1.80%	98.20%
US	886,442	750,284	136,158	85,922	50,236	63.10%	36.90%

Latest v previous day - increase /decrease

Country	New Cases 23 Apr	New Cases 22 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 23 Apr	Deaths 22 Apr	Death Increase
IT	2,646	3,378	-732	464	437	27
ES	4,635	4,211	424	440	435	5
DE	2,481	2,195	286	260	229	31
FR	2,239	2,413	-174	516	544	-28
UK	4,583	4,451	132	638	763	-125
US	31,900	29,973	1,927	2,777	2,141	636

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	23-Apr				22-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	2,646	189,973	25,549	13.4%	187,327	25,085	13.4%
ES	4,635	213,024	22,157	10.4%	208,389	21,717	10.4%
DE	2,481	153,129	5,575	3.6%	150,648	5,315	3.5%
FR	2,239	159,877	21,856	13.7%	155,914	21,340	13.7%
UK	4,583	138,078	18,738	13.6%	133,495	18,100	13.6%
US	31,900	886,442	50,236	5.7%	848,717	47,459	5.6%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	23-Apr				16-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	2,646	189,973	25,549	13.4%	168,941	21,645	12.8%
ES	4,635	213,024	22,157	10.4%	184,948	19,130	10.3%
DE	2,481	153,129	5,575	3.6%	137,698	4,052	2.9%
FR	2,239	159,877	21,856	13.7%	133,644	17,920	13.4%
UK	4,583	138,078	18,738	13.6%	103,093	13,729	13.3%
US	31,900	886,442	50,236	5.7%	682,545	34,905	5.1%

Latest v one week ago - percentage increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	101.4%	100.4%	112.4%	105.0%
ES	102.2%	99.8%	115.2%	100.6%
DE	101.6%	103.2%	111.2%	123.7%
FR	102.5%	99.9%	119.6%	102.0%
UK	103.4%	100.1%	133.9%	101.9%
US	104.4%	101.3%	129.9%	110.8%