COVID-19 18th April 2020

Summary

US - new cases 32,165 (+2,598), deaths 2,535 (+359)
Recovery Rate v Death Rate
61.96% v 38.04% Recovery Rate Reducing

ES - new cases 5,891 (+1,602), deaths 687 (+184)
Recovery Rate v Death Rate
78.45% v 21.55% Recovery Rate Reducing

IT - new cases 3,493 (-293), Deaths 575 (+30)
Recovery Rate v Death Rate
65.26% v 34.74% Recovery Rate Increasing

FR - new cases 1,909 (-10,507), death 761 (-8) NB adjusments have been made to way France is reporting see commenatry below.
Recovery Rate v Death Rate
64.82% v 35.18% Recovery Rate Increasing

DE - new cases 3,699 (+754), deaths 300 (+52)
Recovery Rate v Death Rate
95.20% v 4.98% Recovery Rate Increasing

UK - new cases 5,599 (+982), deaths 847 (-14)
Recovery Rate v Death Rate
2.31% v 97.69% Recovery Rate Reducing

Note UK is not removing recoverd cases from active cases which is distorting rates.

Commentary

US - new cases and deaths have increased despite Trump trying to convince the nation that the epidemic has peaked, and have been higher than the low of 26,641 on13 Apr for the last 4 days and the 6th highest number of new cases in a day with the 3rd highest number of deaths reported in a day.

ES - new cases have increased for the last 4 days since low on 13 Apr of 3,268.  Deaths have also increased from low of 499 on 14 Apr.

IT - new cases reduced by 293 and deaths increase by 30.  There are now signs that the active case curve is flattening and the recobery rate is increasing.

FR - France's reporting is erratic as yesterday they reported 17,164 new cases with a total of 165,027 which has now been adjusted to 12,416 and 146,060 - somehow they have reduced the total by amnost 20,000 but the daoly rate by less than 5,000 - here is an explanation from Worldometers:

NOTE: France reported that a portion of the EHPAD and EMS nursing home cases - representing about 33% of the total EHPAD and EMS cases - were confirmed (rather than probable, as the other 67%) and as such are to be considered as already included in the total national case count [source]. The French Government has now started reporting the breakdown between confirmed and probable EHPAD and EMS cases [source]. We have adjusted the historical data for France from April 4 based on this information. On April 3, the French Government had reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously. On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

DE - new cases increase to 3,299 the highest level since 10 Apr 3,936. Deaths have also increased from 129 on 10 Apr to 548

UK - new cases increase by almost 1,000 (982) to 5,599 3rd highest level.  Deaths stay above 700 (847) per day since 7 Apr.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day Recovery Rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	172,434	106,962	65,472	42,727	22,745	65.26%	34.74%
ES	190,839	98,040	92,799	72,797	20,002	78.45%	21.55%
DE	141,397	53,931	87,466	83,114	4,352	95.02%	4.98%
FR	147,969	94,868	53,101	34,420	18,681	64.82%	35.18%
UK	108,692	93,772	14,920	344	14,576	2.31%	97.69%
US	709,735	612,071	97,664	60,510	37,154	61.96%	38.04%

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country	New Cases 17 Apr	New Cases 16 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 17 Apr	Deaths 16 Apr	Death Increase
IT	3,493	3,786	-293	575	545	30
ES	5,891	4,289	1,602	687	503	184
DE	3,699	2,945	754	300	248	52
FR	1,909	12,416	-10,507	6,265	753	5,512
UK	5,599	4,617	982	847	861	-14
US	32,165	29,567	2,598	2,535	2,176	359

Latest v previous day - actiuals

Daily	17-Apr				16-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,493	172,434	22,745	13.2%	168,941	22,170	13.1%
ES	5,891	190,839	20,002	10.5%	184,948	19,315	10.4%
DE	3,699	141,397	4,352	3.1%	137,698	4,052	2.9%
FR	1,909	147,969	18,681	12.6%	146,060	12,416	8.5%
UK	5,599	108,692	14,576	13.4%	103,093	13,729	13.3%
US	32,165	709,735	37,154	5.2%	677,570	34,619	5.1%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	17-Apr				10-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,493	172,434	22,745	13.2%	147,577	18,849	12.8%
ES	5,891	190,839	20,002	10.5%	158,273	16,081	10.2%
DE	3,699	141,397	4,352	3.1%	122,171	2,736	2.2%
FR	1,909	147,969	18,681	12.6%	113,927	13,197	11.6%
UK	5,599	108,692	14,576	13.4%	73,758	8,958	12.1%
US	32,165	709,735	37,154	5.2%	502,876	18,747	3.7%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	102.1%	100.5%	116.8%	103.3%
ES	103.2%	100.4%	120.6%	103.2%
DE	102.7%	104.6%	115.7%	137.4%
FR	101.3%	148.5%	129.9%	109.0%
UK	105.4%	100.7%	147.4%	110.4%
US	104.7%	102.5%	141.1%	140.4%

Weekly reduction in growth of cases/deaths

	10-Mar		17-Mar		Reduction
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Cases	Deaths
IT	123.2%	104.2%	116.8%	103.3%	-6.3%	-1.0%
ES	132.8%	108.2%	120.6%	103.2%	-12.2%	-5.0%
DE	134.0%	160.1%	115.7%	137.4%	-18.3%	-22.7%
FR	152.0%	133.5%	129.9%	109.0%	-22.1%	-24.5%
UK	193.2%	128.6%	147.4%	110.4%	-45.9%	-18.2%
US	180.1%	145.8%	141.1%	140.4%	-39.0%	-5.4%