COVID-19 13th April 2010

Summary

US saw 2,582 fewer new cases and 303 fewer deaths than previous day and first time new cases have been below 30,000 for 7 days..

Spain had lowest new cases (3,804) since 22 Mar (3,272) and their 'active' case curve is certainly flattening.

Italy continues to see new cases around 4,000 (4,092) but had lowest deaths (431) since 19 Mar (427).

France new cases reduced by almost 2,000 (1,848) and deaths reduced for 4th day.

Germany saw lowest no. of new cases (2,402) since 17 Mar (2,095) and their 'active' case curve, like Spain, shows signs of flattening.

UK new cases stay around 5,000 (5,233) but a few significant 'milestones': 

1/ UK now has more cases (84,279) than China (82,160) 

2/ UK now exceeds 10,000 deaths (10,616)

3/ Death rate has more than doubled in a week 10,616 v 4,934

4/ further confirmation that UK is following the trajectory of Italy

IT 74,386 25 Mar UK 73,758 10 Apr

IT 80,589 26 Mar UK 78,991 11 Apr

IT 86,498 27 Mar UK 84,279 12 Apr

5/ Whilst UK is around 15 days behind Italy's curve the UK death rate is already almost the same UK 12.6% v IT 12.7%

On 31 Mar I posted some stats showing the population density of each EU country which showed that UK had:

a/ highest population density 

b/ highest urban population density. 

This may go some way to explaining why UK looks likely to become the worst affected EU country.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country	New Cases 12 Apr	New Cases 11 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 12 Apr	Deaths 11 Apr	Death Increase
IT	4,092	4,694	-602	431	619	-188
ES	3,804	4,754	-950	603	525	78
DE	2,402	3,281	-879	151	135	16
FR	2,937	4,785	-1,848	561	635	-74
UK	5,288	5,233	55	741	917	-176
US	27,421	30,003	-2,582	1,527	1,830	-303

Latest v previous days - actuals

Daily	12-Apr				11-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,092	156,363	19,899	12.7%	152,271	19,468	12.8%
ES	3,804	166,831	17,209	10.3%	163,027	16,606	10.2%
DE	2,402	127,854	3,022	2.4%	125,452	2,871	2.3%
FR	2,937	132,591	14,393	10.9%	125,654	13,832	11.0%
UK	5,288	84,279	10,616	12.6%	78,991	9,875	12.5%
US	27,421	560,300	22,104	3.9%	532,879	20,577	3.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	12-Apr				05-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,092	156,363	19,899	12.7%	128,948	16,523	12.8%
ES	3,804	166,831	17,209	10.3%	131,646	12,641	9.6%
DE	2,402	127,854	3,022	2.4%	100,123	1,584	1.6%
FR	2,937	132,591	14,393	10.9%	92,839	8,078	8.7%
UK	5,288	84,279	10,616	12.6%	47,806	4,934	10.3%
US	27,421	560,300	22,104	3.9%	338,779	9,636	2.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	102.7%	99.5%	121.3%	99.3%
ES	102.3%	101.3%	126.7%	107.4%
DE	101.9%	103.3%	127.7%	149.4%
FR	105.5%	98.6%	142.8%	124.8%
UK	106.7%	100.8%	176.3%	122.0%
US	105.1%	102.2%	165.4%	138.7%