COVID-19 25th March 2020

Not really much change on yesterday.  Thankfully Italy's new cases for the last 4 days have been lower than the previous 3 days, so let's all hope that this is a sign that virus infections are beginning to reduce and that the affect of the lockdown on 9th March is beginning to show results.

The sobering figure I learned today was that so far in UK only around 97,019 (source) people have been tested.  With 9,529 confirmed cases does it correlate that around 10% of those tested are infected?  If so, then with a population of 67.8 million that means potentially 6.78 million cases and a death rate of currently 5% we could be looking at almost 340,000 deaths!!!

NOTE These are NOT official figures just my own projections of worst case scenario based on current figures which could be completely skewed as 'obviously' those tested are presumably already showing potential symptoms - which is why they are tested.  The latest official estimate is that there may be 20,000 UK deaths.

A couple of days ago I posted a chart from John Burn-Murdoch from the Financial Times which mapped each country's trajectory.  Yesterday, again I was speculating on where UK was in relation to Italy.  Today's latest chart of deaths shows that Spain appears to be ahead (i.e. worse) than Italy and UK is slightly ahead and France virtually tracking Italy with Germany doing the same.

NB I have had to copy charts as no way to link them as moving twitter feed.  If author objects then leave comment and they will be removed.

Click to enlarge

Today's Trajectory Charts

Click to enlarge

Here is a breakdown of infections in UK by NHS region (source)

NHS Region	Total Cases
East of England	480
London	3,247
Midlands	1,296
North East and Yorkshire	698
North West	703
South East	876
South West	397

Here are today's stats from Worldometer .

25/03/2020
Daily	25-Mar				24 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,210	74,386	7,503	10.1%	69,176	6,820	9.9%
ES	7,457	49,515	3,647	7.4%	42,058	2,991	7.1%
DE	4,332	37,323	206	0.6%	32,991	151	0.5%
FR	2,929	25,233	1,331	5.3%	22,304	1,100	4.9%
UK	1,452	9,529	465	4.9%	8,077	422	5.2%

Weekly	25-Mar				18 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,210	74,386	7,503	10.1%	35,713	2,978	8.3%
ES	7,457	49,515	3,647	7.4%	14,769	638	4.3%
DE	4,332	37,323	206	0.6%	12,327	28	0.2%
FR	2,929	25,233	1,331	5.3%	9,134	264	2.9%
UK	1,452	9,529	465	4.9%	2,626	104	4.0%

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	107.5%	102.3%	208.3%	121.0%
ES	117.7%	103.6%	335.3%	170.5%
DE	113.1%	120.6%	302.8%	243.0%
FR	113.1%	107.0%	276.3%	182.5%
UK	118.0%	93.4%	362.9%	123.2%