COVID-19 24th March 2020

After falling for a few days Italy's new cases have risen again by around 500 but is still much lower than the peak of 6,557 on 21st March. Spain's and UK are up by around the same margin, Germany's have fallen by 250 and France has see a significant drop by almost 1,400.

The UK has seen it's highest number of new cases to date by a significant margin i.e. 1,035  v 1,427.

Spain has also seen its highest number of new cases jumping from 3,925 on 21st to 6,368 23rd Mar and 6,992 24th Mar and they appear to still be on an upward trend.

France's new cases have up to now been under 2,000 and had a spike on 23rd Mar just under 4,000 but are now just under 2,500.

I have been mapping UK numbers with Italy to monitor if UK is following the same trend.

If you compare UK figures with Italy's 15 days ago i.e. UK 24th Mar v IT 9th Mar then UK is actually behind Italy's curve by approx 1000 cases, however if you offset by one day i.e. UK 24th Mar v Italy 8th Mar the UK is actually ahead of Italy's curve by 700 and has been for each preceding day.  Although UK has now locked  down (although not fully), it will be at least 2 to 3 weeks before we see a reduction in cases as those already infected may take time to manifest.

UK 24th Mar 8,077 

IT 8th Mar 7,375 

IT 9th Mar 9,172

If, as I predicted last week, we see cases in UK at 15,000 in 4 days then we can almost guarantee that we are following the same trajectory as Italy.  Did UK government or medical experts learn nothing from Italy?  They have had 2 to 3 weeks foresight to prepare and have delayed and now I fear it is too late to avoid the dreadful consequences.

India with a population of 1.3bn and only 500 cases locked down yesterday - how many tens of thousands of lives will their prompt and decisive action save?

24/03/2020
Daily	24-Mar				23 Mar (-1 Day)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,249	69,176	6,820	9.9%	63,927	6,077	9.5%
ES	6,922	42,058	2,991	7.1%	35,136	2,311	6.6%
DE	3,935	32,991	151	0.5%	29,056	123	0.4%
FR	2,448	22,304	1,100	4.9%	19,856	860	4.3%
UK	1,427	8,077	422	5.2%	6,650	335	5.0%

Weekly	24-Mar				17 Mar (-1 Week)
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	5,249	69,176	6,820	9.9%	31,506	2,503	7.9%
ES	6,922	42,058	2,991	7.1%	11,826	533	4.5%
DE	3,935	32,991	151	0.5%	9,367	26	0.3%
FR	2,448	22,304	1,100	4.9%	7,730	175	2.3%
UK	1,427	8,077	422	5.2%	1,950	71	3.6%

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	108.2%	103.7%	219.6%	124.1%
ES	119.7%	108.1%	355.6%	157.8%
DE	113.5%	108.1%	352.2%	164.9%
FR	112.3%	113.9%	288.5%	217.8%
UK	121.5%	103.7%	414.2%	143.5%