Summary
ES, IT & DE all had ther lowest no. of new cases since mid March.
Here's a summary of the increase in total cases in the last week:
IT 113.6% (159,516 - 181,228) 21,712 3,102 average per day
DE 115% (127,854 - 147,065) 19,211 2,745 average per day
ES 117.7% (170,099 - 200,210) 30,111 4,302 average per day
FR 119.5% (130,072 - 155,383) 25,311 3,616 average per day
US 134.2% (590,573 - 792,759) 202,186 28,884 average per day
UK 140.8% (88,621 - 124,753) 39,122 5,161 average per day
|
New
Cases
|
Change |
Deaths |
Change |
Rec'ry
Rate
|
Death
Rate
|
|
| IT |
2,256 |
-25.96% |
454 |
+4.6% |
66.96% |
33.04% |
Increasing |
| ES |
1,536 |
-63.93% |
399 |
-2.8% |
79.24% |
20.76% |
Increasing |
| DE |
1,323 |
-34.44% |
220 |
+52.7% |
94.95% |
5.05% |
Reducing |
| FR |
2,489+ |
126.07% |
538 |
+26.6% |
64.88% |
35.12% |
Reducing |
| UK |
4,676 |
-20.07% |
449 |
-32.7% |
2.04% |
97.96% |
Reducing |
| US |
28,123 |
+8.82% |
1,939 |
+19.5% |
63.00% |
37.00% |
Reducing |
Commentary
US - after yesterday's low (25,854) since 31 Mar new cases increase by 2,279 and new cases have been above 25,000 and deaths above 1,000 for the 19th consecutive day. New York now exceeds 250,000 cases (more than any other country) and New Jersey 88,806 (exceeding China, and has almost as many cases the 7th worst affected country Turkey) The active cases curve show no indication of flattening (652,874 yesterday v 677,856 today), yet US has seen demonstrations 'demanding' that lockdown end - which planet are these people living on, or do they just not look at the figures, which would be inexcusable for what they are protesting about. Even worse, they are not even social-distancing in their protests - I wonder how many will now contract the virus during the protests and spread it to others? COVIDIOTS!
ES - now exceeds 200,000 cases but had the lowest new cases (1,536) since 14 Mar 1,159.
IT - new cases (2,256) lowest since 10 Mar (977) and active cases curve has been showing signs of flattening and reduced for the first day 108,257 to 108,237.
FR - new cases increased 1,388 and deaths 143, Deaths now exceed 20,000 (20,256).
DE - new cases (1,323) lowest since 15 Mar (1,204)
UK - new cases (4,676) reduce by 1,174 (but on only 3 days since 31 Mar have new cases been below 4,000), deaths (449) are lowest since 6 Apr (439)
Last week I highlighted that the UK recovery rate was not being reported/updated. The number of recoveries has stood at 344 for weeks. I do not understand why the number of recovered cases is not being maintained when every other country is maintaining it daily. I highlighted this fact to Piers Morgan at ITV's Good Morning Britian and Laura Keunsberg at BBC who have both chosen to ignore it. Morgan is more intent on 'beating up' the government about lack of PPE and the number of non hospital deaths. Surely the number of people recovering from COVID-19 is as important to know as how many are dying? In Germany you have a 95% rate of survival whilst Spain 80%, Italy 67%, France 65%, US 63% and UK ???.
Rather than the media 'banging on' about lack of PPE, perhaps they could explain to us why, surgical gowns in particular, cannot be washed, sterilised and reused and must be disposed of. When this crisis is over we will still have climate change to deal with and it seems crazy to me that we are making and shipping all this equipment simply to be disposed of after single use. I fully accept that face masks and gloves need to be disposed of but what is the scientific reason that visors and gowns cannot be washed and/or sterilised? This would alleviate the shortage. I'm not saying that they should be, I'd just like to know some facts and evidence on the matter rather than the media using it as a tool to make political points at every opportunity as this is just stirring up fear. I'd also like to know that if I catch COVID-19 what is my chance of survival is it 63% as in US or 95% as in Germany? If I need medical help do I not receive it because there are no disposable surgical gowns available or do I take a chance with medics wearing reusable washed ones? Who are the gowns protecting the medics or the patient or both? Please let's have some facts and evidence reported not sensationalism.
A quick google search revealed that reusable gowns do exist and this
report was from 1998 - so in 22 years surely they have progressed further?
If the media is so hung up on this then what about bed linen and all the other equipment being used by COVID-19 patients - are these all disposed of afterwards? Surely bed linen, that COVID-19 patients have been lying in, being resued is far more of a risk? Then what about the mattresses? ... and on it goes.
Finally, I'd also like to know why 28 days after lockdown we are still seeing on average over 5,000 new cases daily in UK in the last week. If WHO's incubation period of 2-14 days is correct, then that must mean that these new infections must have occurred at least 14 days into lockdown and therefore community spreading is still occurring, but where? Are these all health workers, essential workers, care home workers/residents? It would be useful to know so preventative measures could be put in place. I feel that this country is simply fire-fighting and not trying to get ahead on the pandemic. There will be increasing pressure to remove lockdown and if we are not in a position at that time to test and contact trace we will simply see another major outbreak. The Health Secretary, Matt Hancock set a 'goal' of 100,000 tests per day by end of April and here we are with just over a week to go and less than 20,000 tests were conducted on
19 Apr. It cannot be a coincidence that Germany, with far more cases than UK, has less than a quarter of the death rate than UK and that is because they tested and contact traced from the outset. Even the US, which has more than 6 times the number of cases, has a 60% lower death rate than UK.
Latest v previous day - Recovery Rate v Death Rate
|
Total |
Active |
Conc. |
Recvd. |
Deaths |
Recvd% |
Death% |
| IT |
181,228 |
108,237 |
72,991 |
48,877 |
24,114 |
66.96% |
33.04% |
| ES |
200,210 |
99,771 |
100,439 |
79,587 |
20,852 |
79.24% |
20.76% |
| DE |
147,065 |
50,703 |
96,362 |
91,500 |
4,862 |
94.95% |
5.05% |
| FR |
155,383 |
97,709 |
57,674 |
37,418 |
20,256 |
64.88% |
35.12% |
| UK |
124,743 |
107,890 |
16,853 |
344 |
16,509 |
2.04% |
97.96% |
| US |
792,759 |
677,856 |
114,903 |
72,389 |
42,514 |
63.00% |
37.00% |
Latest v previous day - increase / decrease
| Country |
New Cases
20 Apr
|
New Cases
19 Apr
|
New Case Increase |
Deaths
20 Apr
|
Deaths
19 Apr
|
Death
Increase
|
| IT |
2,256 |
3,047 |
-791 |
454 |
433 |
21 |
| ES |
1,536 |
4,258 |
-2,722 |
399 |
410 |
-11 |
| DE |
1,323 |
2,018 |
-695 |
220 |
104 |
116 |
| FR |
2,489 |
1,101 |
1,388 |
538 |
395 |
143 |
| UK |
4,676 |
5,850 |
-1,174 |
449 |
596 |
-147 |
| US |
28,123 |
25,844 |
2,279 |
1,939 |
1,561 |
378 |
Latest v previous day - actuals
| Daily |
20-Apr |
19-Apr |
| Country |
New Cases |
Total Cases |
No. Deaths |
Death Rate% |
Total Cases |
No. Deaths |
Death Rate% |
| IT |
2,256 |
181,228 |
24,114 |
13.3% |
178,972 |
23,660 |
13.2% |
| ES |
1,536 |
200,210 |
20,852 |
10.4% |
198,674 |
20,453 |
10.3% |
| DE |
1,323 |
147,065 |
4,862 |
3.3% |
145,742 |
4,642 |
3.2% |
| FR |
2,489 |
155,383 |
20,256 |
13.0% |
152,894 |
19,718 |
12.9% |
| UK |
4,676 |
124,743 |
16,509 |
13.2% |
120,067 |
16,060 |
13.4% |
| US |
28,123 |
792,759 |
42,514 |
5.4% |
764,636 |
40,575 |
5.3% |
Latest v one week ago - actuals
| Weekly |
20-Apr |
13-Apr |
| Country |
New Cases |
Total Cases |
No. Deaths |
Death Rate% |
Total
Cases
|
No.
Deaths
|
Death Rate% |
| IT |
2,256 |
181,228 |
24,114 |
13.3% |
159,516 |
20,465 |
12.8% |
| ES |
1,536 |
200,210 |
20,852 |
10.4% |
170,099 |
17,756 |
10.4% |
| DE |
1,323 |
147,065 |
4,862 |
3.3% |
127,854 |
3,194 |
2.5% |
| FR |
2,489 |
155,383 |
20,256 |
13.0% |
130,072 |
14,967 |
11.5% |
| UK |
4,676 |
124,743 |
16,509 |
13.2% |
88,621 |
11,329 |
12.8% |
| US |
28,123 |
792,759 |
42,514 |
5.4% |
590,573 |
27,272 |
4.6% |
Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase
|
Daily |
|
Weekly |
|
| Country |
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
Total
Cases
Increase
Factor
|
Death Rate
Increase Factor
|
| IT |
101.3% |
100.7% |
113.6% |
103.7% |
| ES |
100.8% |
101.2% |
117.7% |
99.8% |
| DE |
100.9% |
103.8% |
115.0% |
132.3% |
| FR |
101.6% |
101.1% |
119.5% |
113.3% |
| UK |
103.9% |
98.9% |
140.8% |
103.5% |
| US |
103.7% |
101.1% |
134.2% |
116.1% |
