COVID-19 21st April 2020

Summary

ES, IT & DE all had ther lowest no. of new cases since mid March.

Here's a summary of the increase in total cases in the last week:

IT 113.6%   (159,516 - 181,228)    21,712      3,102 average per day

DE 115%    (127,854 - 147,065)    19,211       2,745 average per day

ES 117.7% (170,099 - 200,210)    30,111       4,302 average per day

FR 119.5% (130,072 - 155,383)    25,311       3,616 average per day

US 134.2% (590,573 - 792,759)  202,186    28,884 average per day

UK 140.8%   (88,621 - 124,753)    39,122      5,161 average per day

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	2,256	-25.96%	454	+4.6%	66.96%	33.04%	Increasing
ES	1,536	-63.93%	399	-2.8%	79.24%	20.76%	Increasing
DE	1,323	-34.44%	220	+52.7%	94.95%	5.05%	Reducing
FR	2,489+	126.07%	538	+26.6%	64.88%	35.12%	Reducing
UK	4,676	-20.07%	449	-32.7%	2.04%	97.96%	Reducing
US	28,123	+8.82%	1,939	+19.5%	63.00%	37.00%	Reducing

Commentary

US - after yesterday's low (25,854) since 31 Mar new cases increase by 2,279 and new cases have been above 25,000 and deaths above 1,000 for the 19th consecutive day.  New York now exceeds 250,000 cases (more than any other country) and New Jersey 88,806 (exceeding China, and has almost as many cases the 7th worst affected country Turkey) The active cases curve show no indication of flattening (652,874 yesterday v 677,856 today), yet US has seen demonstrations 'demanding' that lockdown end - which planet are these people living on, or do they just not look at the figures, which would be inexcusable for what they are protesting about.  Even worse, they are not even social-distancing in their protests - I wonder how many will now contract the virus during the protests and spread it to others? COVIDIOTS!

ES - now exceeds 200,000 cases but had the lowest new cases (1,536) since 14 Mar 1,159.

IT - new cases (2,256) lowest since 10 Mar (977) and active cases curve has been showing signs of flattening and reduced for the first day 108,257 to 108,237.

FR - new cases increased 1,388 and deaths 143, Deaths now exceed 20,000 (20,256).

DE - new cases (1,323) lowest since 15 Mar (1,204)

UK - new cases (4,676) reduce by 1,174 (but on only 3 days since 31 Mar have new cases been below 4,000), deaths (449) are lowest since 6 Apr (439)

Last week I highlighted that the UK recovery rate was not being reported/updated.  The number of recoveries has stood at 344 for weeks.  I do not understand why the number of recovered cases is not being maintained when every other country is maintaining it daily. I highlighted this fact to Piers Morgan at  ITV's Good Morning Britian and Laura Keunsberg at BBC who have both chosen to ignore it.  Morgan is more intent on 'beating up' the government about lack of PPE and the number of non hospital deaths.  Surely the number of people recovering from COVID-19 is as important to know as how many are dying? In Germany you have a 95% rate of survival whilst Spain 80%, Italy 67%, France 65%, US 63% and UK ???.

Rather than the media 'banging on' about lack of PPE, perhaps they could explain to us why, surgical gowns in particular, cannot be washed, sterilised and reused and must be disposed of.  When this crisis is over we will still have climate change to deal with and it seems crazy to me that we are making and shipping all this equipment simply to be disposed of after single use. I fully accept that face masks and gloves need to be disposed of but what is the scientific reason that  visors and gowns cannot be washed and/or sterilised?  This would alleviate the shortage.  I'm not saying that they should be, I'd just like to know some facts and evidence on the matter rather than the media using it as a tool to make political points at every opportunity as this is just stirring up fear.  I'd also like to know that if I catch COVID-19 what is my chance of survival is it 63% as in US or 95% as in Germany?  If I need medical help do I not receive it because there are no disposable surgical gowns available or do I take a chance with medics wearing reusable washed ones?  Who are the gowns protecting the medics or the patient or both?  Please let's have some facts and evidence reported not sensationalism.

A quick google search revealed that reusable gowns do exist and this report was from 1998 - so in 22 years surely they have progressed further?

If the media is so hung up on this then what about bed linen and all the other equipment being used by COVID-19 patients - are these all disposed of afterwards?  Surely bed linen, that COVID-19 patients have been lying in, being resued is far more of a risk? Then what about the mattresses? ... and on it goes.

Finally, I'd also like to know why 28 days after lockdown we are still seeing on average over 5,000 new cases daily in UK in the last week.  If WHO's incubation period of 2-14 days is correct, then that must mean that these new infections must have occurred at least 14 days into lockdown and therefore community spreading is still occurring, but where? Are these all health workers, essential workers, care home workers/residents?  It would be useful to know so preventative measures could be put in place.  I feel that this country is simply fire-fighting and not trying to get ahead on the pandemic.  There will be increasing pressure to remove lockdown and if we are not in a position at that time to test and contact trace we will simply see another major outbreak.  The Health Secretary, Matt Hancock set a 'goal' of 100,000 tests per day by end of April and here we are with just over a week to go and less than 20,000 tests were conducted on 19 Apr. It cannot be a coincidence that Germany, with far more cases than UK, has less than a quarter of the death rate than UK and that is because they tested and contact traced from the outset. Even the US, which has more than 6 times the number of cases, has a 60% lower death rate than UK.

Latest Stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery Rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	181,228	108,237	72,991	48,877	24,114	66.96%	33.04%
ES	200,210	99,771	100,439	79,587	20,852	79.24%	20.76%
DE	147,065	50,703	96,362	91,500	4,862	94.95%	5.05%
FR	155,383	97,709	57,674	37,418	20,256	64.88%	35.12%
UK	124,743	107,890	16,853	344	16,509	2.04%	97.96%
US	792,759	677,856	114,903	72,389	42,514	63.00%	37.00%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 20 Apr	New Cases 19 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 20 Apr	Deaths 19 Apr	Death Increase
IT	2,256	3,047	-791	454	433	21
ES	1,536	4,258	-2,722	399	410	-11
DE	1,323	2,018	-695	220	104	116
FR	2,489	1,101	1,388	538	395	143
UK	4,676	5,850	-1,174	449	596	-147
US	28,123	25,844	2,279	1,939	1,561	378

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	20-Apr				19-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	2,256	181,228	24,114	13.3%	178,972	23,660	13.2%
ES	1,536	200,210	20,852	10.4%	198,674	20,453	10.3%
DE	1,323	147,065	4,862	3.3%	145,742	4,642	3.2%
FR	2,489	155,383	20,256	13.0%	152,894	19,718	12.9%
UK	4,676	124,743	16,509	13.2%	120,067	16,060	13.4%
US	28,123	792,759	42,514	5.4%	764,636	40,575	5.3%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	20-Apr				13-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	2,256	181,228	24,114	13.3%	159,516	20,465	12.8%
ES	1,536	200,210	20,852	10.4%	170,099	17,756	10.4%
DE	1,323	147,065	4,862	3.3%	127,854	3,194	2.5%
FR	2,489	155,383	20,256	13.0%	130,072	14,967	11.5%
UK	4,676	124,743	16,509	13.2%	88,621	11,329	12.8%
US	28,123	792,759	42,514	5.4%	590,573	27,272	4.6%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	101.3%	100.7%	113.6%	103.7%
ES	100.8%	101.2%	117.7%	99.8%
DE	100.9%	103.8%	115.0%	132.3%
FR	101.6%	101.1%	119.5%	113.3%
UK	103.9%	98.9%	140.8%	103.5%
US	103.7%	101.1%	134.2%	116.1%