COVID-19 7th May 2020

Summary

All countries had an increase in new case and all but UK & FR had an increase in deaths from previous day.

Worldometers for some reason has stopped publishing Active Cases chart.

The other major story is that Russia has started to see a steep increase in new cases in the last 5 days and has seen over 50,000 new cases since 1 May.

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	1,444	134.33%	369	156.4%	75.85%	24.15%	Inc.
ES	3,121	138.10%	244	131.9%	86.04%	13.96%	Inc.
DE	1,155	135.09%	282	282%	95.06%	4.94%	Inc.
FR	3,640	334.25%	278	84.2%	67.65%	32.35%	Inc.
UK	6,111	138.70%	649	93.7%	0.83%	99.17%	Red.
US	25,459	106.98%	2,528	107.6%	74.01%	25.99%	Red.

Commentary

IT - new cases +369 (134.33%) deaths +133 (156.4%), active cases -8,013 (84.55% of peak)

ES - new cases +861 (138.10%), deaths +59 (131.9%), active cases -3,124 (68.8% of peak)

FR - new cases +2,551 (334.25%), deaths -52 (84.2%), active cases +1,680 ( 98.99% of peak)

DE - new cases +300 (135.09%), deaths +282 (282%), active cases -5,536 (28.8% of peak)

US - new cases +1,661 (106.98%), deaths +178 (107.57%), active cases +21,678

UK - new cases +1,705 (138.7%), deaths -44 (93.7%), active cases ?

UK now has over 200,000 cases and over 30,000 deaths and has averaged 5,113 new cases and 568 deaths per day in the last 7 days.  To put this in context with the rest of EU the closest country to these figures is IT with average 1,552 new cases and 286 deaths per day i.e. more that 3 times more new cases and almost double no. of deaths.

If we look at the growth of total no. of cases, UK is now 10 days ahead of Italy's trajectory.

IT   - 97,689 29 Mar 201,505 28 Apr - 33 days

UK - 98,476 15 Apr  201,101  6 May - 23 days

It still bewilders (and concerns) me where all these new cases are originating from 44 days into lockdown?  I 'presume' it must be front-line workers that are infected? 

UK has seen 35,789 new cases in the last week (and almost 150,000 (149,402) in last month since 6 Apr - 2 weeks after lockdown - an average of 4,980 per day). Is it even possible to contact trace this number of cases? If each of these 35,789 in last week alone have been in contact with just 3 other people that's over 100,000 people who need to be tested, and then what about the people these contacts have been in contact with if they test positive?

Whilst on the subject of testing,  here are the figures since the 100,000 target was 'met' on 30 Apr: (Note testing figure are always 1 day behind so no figures available for 6 May yet)

	Daily		Cumulative
	No. Tests	People  Tested	No. Tests	People  Tested
01-May	105,937	63,667	1,129,907	825,946
02-May	76,496	56,397	1,206,405	882,343
03-May	85,186	62,956	1,291,591	945,299
04-May	84,806	69,839	1,383,842	1,015,138
05-May	69,463	57,006	1,448,010	1,072,144

As can been seen from the figures above, the UK has consistently seen around 5,000 new cases per day for the last month so I cannot conceivably see how the government can relax lockdown until these numbers significantly reduce and testing is significantly increased.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	214,457	91,528	122,929	93,245	29,684	75.85%	24.15%
ES	253,682	68,466	185,216	159,359	25,857	86.04%	13.96%
DE	168,162	20,987	147,175	139,900	7,275	95.06%	4.94%
FR	174,191	94,410	79,781	53,972	25,809	67.65%	32.35%
UK	201,010	170,681	30,329	253	30,076	0.83%	99.17%
US	1,263,092	975,306	287,786	212,987	74,799	74.01%	25.99%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 6 May	New Cases 5 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 6 May	Deaths 5 May	Death Increase
IT	1,444	1,075	369	369	236	133
ES	3,121	2,260	861	244	185	59
DE	1,155	855	300	282	0	282
FR	3,640	1,089	2,551	278	330	-52
UK	6,111	4,406	1,705	649	693	-44
US	25,459	23,798	1,661	2,528	2,350	178

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	06-May				05-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,444	214,457	29,684	13.8%	213,013	29,315	13.8%
ES	3,121	253,682	25,857	10.2%	250,561	25,613	10.2%
DE	1,155	168,162	7,275	4.3%	167,007	6,993	4.2%
FR	3,640	174,191	25,809	14.8%	170,551	25,531	15.0%
UK	6,111	201,010	30,076	15.0%	195,990	29,427	15.0%
US	25,459	1,263,092	74,799	5.9%	1,212,835	72,271	6.0%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	06-May				29-Apr
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,444	214,457	29,684	13.8%	203,591	27,682	13.6%
ES	3,121	253,682	25,857	10.2%	236,899	24,275	10.2%
DE	1,155	168,162	7,275	4.3%	161,539	6,467	4.0%
FR	3,640	174,191	25,809	14.8%	166,420	24,087	14.5%
UK	6,111	201,010	30,076	15.0%	165,221	26,097	15.8%
US	25,459	1,263,092	74,799	5.9%	1,064,194	62,655	5.9%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.7%	100.6%	105.3%	101.8%
ES	101.2%	99.7%	107.1%	99.5%
DE	100.7%	103.3%	104.1%	108.1%
FR	102.1%	99.0%	104.7%	102.4%
UK	102.6%	99.7%	121.7%	94.7%
US	104.1%	99.4%	118.7%	100.6%