COVID-19 6th May 2020

Summary

No deaths reported in Germany and their active cases are now 63.6% below peal of 6 Apr.

UK now has highest death rate in EU 29,427 (15% of total cases) second only to US 72,271 (6% of total cases).

Only Italy & US saw new cases reduce and UK continues to have double the cases of the nearest EU country.

All countries Recovery Rate increased.  UK now appears to be updating active cases with recovered cases so hopeful we will now start to see the Recovery Rate percentage increase.

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	1,075	88.04%	236	121.0%	74.17%	25.83%	Inc.
ES	2,260	191.69%	185	112.8%	85.69%	14.31%	Inc.
DE	855	175.20%	0	0.0%	95.02%	4.98%	Inc.
FR	1,089	141.61%	330	107.8%	67.19%	32.81%	Inc.
UK	4,406	110.56%	693	240.6%	14.65%	85.35%	Inc.
US	23,798	96.30%	2,350	177.6%	74.55%	25.45%	Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases -146, deaths +41, active cases -746 (91.94% of peak)

ES - new cases +1,081, deaths +21, active cases -1,335 (71.94% of peak)

FR - new cases +769, deaths +24, active cases -262 (97.24% of peak)

DE - new cases +367, deaths -127, active cases -1,414 (36.3% of peak)

US - new cases -915, deaths +1,027, active cases +14,907 (at peak and rising)

UK - new cases +421, deaths +405, active cases +3,811 (at peak and rising)

As I predicted weeks ago UK now has  the highest death rate in EU and will probably exceed 200,000 cases tomorrow at current rates (4,000+).

UK cases have now accelerated 4 days ahead of Italy's trajectory.

IT -  from 152,271 cases 11 Apr to 195,351 cases 24 Apr i.e. 13 days 25,969  deaths 

UK - from 152,840 cases 26 Apr to 194,990 cases  5 May i.e. 9 days  29,427 deaths

I know it's easy to criticise with hindsight but yesterday a further 3,000+ deaths were announced in care homes.  We knew in advance (at least 3 weeks) that Italy's elderly population were the ones most vulnerable and accounted for the most early deaths, so why is it only now that UK government is taking seriously what is happening to our elderly in care homes?  Insufficient testing and PPE - it's a disgrace. I have a 92 year old mother in law who thankfully is not in a care home but needs daily assistance so know how vulnerable the very poorly paid care assistants must be.  Quite rightly the NHS is being heaped with praise but let's not forget all the social care workers who do not have the benefit of the protection the NHS staff are receiving and are risking their health (and their family's) daily for paltry wages.

Let's hope that when this pandemic is over that there will be proper investment in the social care system which has been neglected for too long.  After this should we begrudge paying higher taxes to pay for the services that have looked after us through this crisis?  Perhaps this may balance our views on who are heros really are and should be - celebrities who just act, sing or play sport for a living or those who care for us when we are sick and all the scientists who are working on treatments and cures.

The next crisis we are likely to face is climate change and I listened to a very interesting interview this morning on BBC with Chris Stark CEO Climate Change Committee, the gist of which can be read in The Guardian but in essence he was saying that to help regenerate the economy out of lockdown we should focus on building the necessary 'green' infrastructure to reduce emissions which would create jobs and help with climate change.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	213,013	99,541	113,472	84,157	29,315	74.17%	25.83%
ES	250,561	71,590	178,971	153,358	25,613	85.69%	14.31%
DE	167,007	26,523	140,484	133,491	6,993	95.02%	4.98%
FR	170,551	92,730	77,821	52,290	25,531	67.19%	32.81%
UK	195,990	161,511	34,479	5,052	29,427	14.65%	85.35%
US	1,237,633	953,628	284,005	211,734	72,271	74.55%	25.45%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 5 May	New Cases 4 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 5 May	Deaths 4 May	Death Increase
IT	1,075	1,221	-146	236	195	41
ES	2,260	1,179	1,081	185	164	21
DE	855	488	367	0	127	-127
FR	1,089	769	320	330	306	24
UK	4,406	3,985	421	693	288	405
US	23,798	24,713	-915	2,350	1,323	1,027

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	05-May				04-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,075	213,013	29,315	13.8%	211,938	29,079	13.7%
ES	2,260	250,561	25,613	10.2%	248,301	25,428	10.2%
DE	855	167,007	6,993	4.2%	166,152	6,993	4.2%
FR	1,089	170,551	25,531	15.0%	169,462	25,201	14.9%
UK	4,406	195,990	29,427	15.0%	190,584	28,734	15.1%
US	23,798	1,212,835	72,271	6.0%	1,212,835	69,921	5.8%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	05-May				28-Apr
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,075	213,013	29,315	13.8%	201,505	27,359	13.6%
ES	2,260	250,561	25,613	10.2%	232,128	23,822	10.3%
DE	855	167,007	6,993	4.2%	159,912	6,126	3.8%
FR	1,089	170,551	25,531	15.0%	165,911	23,660	14.3%
UK	4,406	195,990	29,427	15.0%	161,145	25,302	15.7%
US	23,798	1,212,835	72,271	6.0%	1,035,765	59,265	5.7%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.5%	100.3%	105.7%	101.4%
ES	100.9%	99.8%	107.9%	99.6%
DE	100.5%	99.5%	104.4%	109.3%
FR	100.6%	100.7%	102.8%	105.0%
UK	102.8%	99.6%	121.6%	95.6%
US	100.0%	103.4%	117.1%	104.1%