COVID-19 4th May 2020

Summary

Very positive day as all countries had less new cases and deaths than previous day (2 May).

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	1,389	73.11%	174	36.7%	73.87%	26.13%	Inc.
ES	1,533	59.23%	164	59.4%	85.47%	14.53%	Inc.
DE	697	78.31%	54	71.1%	95.01%	4.99%	Inc.
FR	297	28.29%	135	81.8%	67.10%	32.90%	Red.
UK	4,339	90.28%	315	50.7%	1.19%	98.81%	Red.
US	27,348	91.94%	1,154	68.2%	72.21%	27.79%	Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases reduce by 511 (73.11%), deaths reduce by 300 (36.71%), active cases reduce by 525 and are now 7.46% below peak of 108,257.

ES - new cases reduce by 1,055 (59.23%), deaths reduce by 112 (59.42%), active cases reduce by 934 and are now 26.78% below peak of 100,106.

FR - new cases reduce by 753 (28.29%), deaths reduce by 30 (81.82%), active cases reduce by 60 and are now 2.47% below peak of 95,365

DE - new cases reduce by 193 (78.31%), deaths reduce by 22 (71.05%), active cases reduce by 957 and are now 61.3% below pek of 72,865.

US - new cases reduce by 2,396 (91.94%), deaths reduce by 537 (68.24%), active cases increase by 21,249 to 941,261.

UK - new cases reduce by 467 (90.28%), deaths reduce by 306 (50.72%), active cases increase.

UK Testing

OK it was a Sunday ... but the number of tests reduced significantly from 120,000 30 Apr to:

Data as of 5pm 2 May

No. Tests:               76,496

No. People Tested: 56,397 

Total Tests:               1,206,405

Total People Tested:    882,343

That's 2 consecutive days that they have dropped.  I find it 'interesting' that over 120,000 were declared for 30 Mar (to exceed the government target) yet the 2 following days they are well below the 120,000. The point wasn't to hit target to tick the box and then go backwards! 

Whilst were are discussing government figures, they have been displaying graphs claiming that the UK is over the peak.  These graphs depict hospital admissions only, which of course is a good sign, but new cases have been increasing consistently by between 3,500 and 6,200 and average 4,893 per day since 1 Apr and are likely to increase as testing increases.

  

This is almost triple ES new cases (and even more for DE, IT & FR) as can be seen from the tables on this page. Deaths have only been below 500 per day on 3 occasions since 1 Apr and have averaged 789 per day.  Personally, I believe that until we see new cases and deaths reduce significantly and consistently, then, and only then can it be claimed that we are over the peak.  

The key stats that are missing, that I have been reiterating consistently, is the no. of recovered cases from which we could see if the no. of active cases is increasing or reducing.  Simply subtracting deaths from total cases is not good enough as we don't know how many of the active cases have recovered and are therefor no longer active.  All other EU countries have active cases below their peak clearly indicating that active cases are reducing: DE -61.3%, ES -27%,  IT -7.5% and FR -2.5%.  These figures can't be calculated for UK as they are not reporting recovered cases - which makes me wonder why?  Could it be that the no. of recovered cases is relatively low so they don't wish to publish them?

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	210,717	100,179	110,538	81,654	28,884	73.87%	26.13%
ES	247,122	73,300	173,822	148,558	25,264	85.47%	14.53%
DE	165,664	28,198	137,466	130,600	6,866	95.01%	4.99%
FR	168,693	93,014	75,679	50,784	24,895	67.10%	32.90%
UK	186,599	157,809	28,790	344	28,446	1.19%	98.81%
US	1,188,122	941,261	246,861	178,263	68,598	72.21%	27.79%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 3 May	New Cases 2 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 3 May	Deaths 2 May	Death Increase
IT	1,389	1,900	-511	174	474	-300
ES	1,533	2,588	-1,055	164	276	-112
DE	697	890	-193	54	76	-22
FR	297	1,050	-753	135	165	-30
UK	4,339	4,806	-467	315	621	-306
US	27,348	29,744	-2,396	1,154	1,691	-537

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	03-May				02-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,389	210,717	28,884	13.7%	209,328	28,710	13.7%
ES	1,533	247,122	25,264	10.2%	245,567	25,100	10.2%
DE	697	165,664	6,866	4.1%	164,967	6,812	4.1%
FR	297	168,693	24,895	14.8%	168,396	24,760	14.7%
UK	4,339	186,599	28,446	15.2%	182,260	28,131	15.4%
US	27,348	1,188,122	68,598	5.8%	1,160,754	67,444	5.8%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	03-May				26-Apr
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,389	210,717	28,884	13.7%	197,675	26,644	13.5%
ES	1,533	247,122	25,264	10.2%	226,629	23,190	10.2%
DE	697	165,664	6,866	4.1%	157,770	5,976	3.8%
FR	297	168,693	24,895	14.8%	162,100	22,856	14.1%
UK	4,339	186,599	28,446	15.2%	152,840	24,055	15.7%
US	27,348	1,188,122	68,598	5.8%	987,160	55,412	5.6%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.7%	99.9%	106.6%	101.7%
ES	100.6%	100.0%	109.0%	99.9%
DE	100.4%	100.4%	105.0%	109.4%
FR	100.2%	100.4%	104.1%	104.7%
UK	102.4%	98.8%	122.1%	96.9%
US	102.4%	99.4%	120.4%	102.9%