COVID-19 1st May 2020

Summary

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	1,872	89.74%	285	85.6%	73.09%	26.91%	Inc.
ES	2,740	57.43%	268	59.2%	84.90%	15.10%	Inc.
DE	1,470	90.35%	156	102.0%	94.91%	5.09%	Inc.
FR	758	148.92%	289	67.7%	66.99%	33.01%	Inc.
UK	6,032	147.99%	674	84.8%	1.27%	98.73%	Red.
US	30,829	109.91%	2,200	92.1%	70.46%	29.54%	Red.

Commentary

IT - new cases reduce by 214 (89.74%), deaths reduce by 48 (85.59%), active cases reduce by 3,106 and are now 6.19% below peak of 108,257 on 19 Apr.

ES - new cases reduce by 2,031 (57.43%), deaths reduce by 185 (59.16%), active cases reduce by 2,583 and are now 22.97% below peak of 100,106 on 23 Apr.

FR - new cases increased by 249 (148.92%), deaths reduced by 138 (67.68%), active cases reduce by 1,141 and are now 2.14% below the peak of 95,365 on 28 Apr.

DE - new cases reduce by 157 (90.35%), deaths increase by 3 (101.96%), active cases reduce by 1,786 and are now 54.87% below the peak of 72,865 on 6 Apr.

US - new cases increase by 2,200 (109.91%), deaths reduce by 190 (92.05%), active cases continue to increase.

President Trump claims that he has seen evidence that the virus started in a Chinese laboratory (Wuhan Institute of Virology) which is 8 miles from the wet market where it is believed to have emanated. With US economy in crisis and no signs that the virus is under control yet, could this be a cynical ploy to rally anti-Chinese feelings to win votes in the upcoming election.  Nothing like a bit of jingoism to garner support.  If there was a fire in your house what would you do - try to put it out as quickly as possible or stand around trying to find out how it started so you had someone to blame instead of fighting the fire?  A full enquiry must be held in time to discover the truth but now is not the time.

UK - new cases increase by 1,956 (147.99%), deaths reduce by 121 (84.78%), active cases ?

So Boris Johnson announced that we have reached the peak.  Where are the statistics to back this up - or are we supposed to just take his word for it? From my analysis new cases were the highest to date 6,032 (probably as a result of more testing) and deaths are still relatively high at 674 - we have only seen 5 days in April where deaths have been below 600 per day and UK has consistently seen the highest daily death toll in EU during April and has the highest percentage deaths per total cases of 15.6% whilst Germany has 4.1% and US 5.8%.

I 'think' his statement is on the basis of lower no. of hospital admissions, but surely if new cases are still occurring, and at a higher rate, then a percentage of these cases will need to be admitted to hospital. I think it is too early to claim that we have reached the peak until we see new cases reducing significantly and consistently.

UK Testing

So almost 82,000 tests carried out on 29 Apr and government is confident that 100,000 will be met.

As of 5pm 20 Apr 2020

No of Tests              81,611

People tested:         54,575

Total tests to date: 901,905

People tested:       687,369

Tested positive:     171,253 (almost 25% tested are positive)

Testing figures for the last week showing daily increase - draw your own conclusion, but if i were a cynic I would wonder how the number of tests has increased so rapidly a few days before the government's 'goal' deadline of 30 Apr.  

Let's just hope that these figures are valid and that they continue to increase as the only realistic way out of this crisis is to test and contact trace so that only those potentially infected have to isolate and not the whole country, as the economic fall out from this, I fear, will last a lot longer than the virus. 

29 Apr 81,611 + 29,182

28 Apr 52,429   + 8,865

27 Apr 43,564   + 5,740

26 Apr 37,824   + 8,766

25 Apr 29,058      + 298

24 Apr 28,760      + 228

23 Apr 28,532

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	205,463	101,551	103,912	75,945	27,967	73.09%	26.91%
ES	239,639	77,112	162,527	137,984	24,543	84.90%	15.10%
DE	163,009	32,886	130,123	123,500	6,623	94.91%	5.09%
FR	167,178	93,326	73,852	49,476	24,376	66.99%	33.01%
UK	171,253	144,138	27,115	344	26,771	1.27%	98.73%
US	1,095,023	878,843	216,180	152,324	63,856	70.46%	29.54%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 30 Apr	New Cases 29 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 30 Apr	Deaths 29 Apr	Death Increase
IT	1,872	2,086	-214	285	333	-48
ES	2,740	4,771	-2,031	268	453	-185
DE	1,470	1,627	-157	156	153	3
FR	758	509	249	289	427	-138
UK	6,032	4,076	1,956	674	795	-121
US	30,829	28,049	2,780	2,200	2,390	-190

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	30-Apr				29-Apr
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,872	205,463	27,967	13.6%	203,591	27,682	13.6%
ES	2,740	239,639	24,543	10.2%	236,899	24,275	10.2%
DE	1,470	163,009	6,623	4.1%	161,539	6,467	4.0%
FR	758	167,178	24,376	14.6%	166,420	24,087	14.5%
UK	6,032	171,253	26,771	15.6%	165,221	26,097	15.8%
US	30,829	1,095,023	63,856	5.8%	1,064,194	61,656	5.8%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	30-Apr				23-Apr
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,872	205,463	27,967	13.6%	189,973	25,549	13.4%
ES	2,740	239,639	24,543	10.2%	213,024	22,157	10.4%
DE	1,470	163,009	6,623	4.1%	153,129	5,575	3.6%
FR	758	167,178	24,376	14.6%	158,183	21,856	13.8%
UK	6,032	171,253	26,771	15.6%	138,078	21,787	15.8%
US	30,829	1,095,023	63,856	5.8%	886,274	50,234	5.7%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.9%	100.1%	108.2%	101.2%
ES	101.2%	99.9%	112.5%	98.5%
DE	100.9%	101.5%	106.5%	111.6%
FR	100.5%	100.7%	105.7%	105.5%
UK	103.7%	99.0%	124.0%	99.1%
US	102.9%	100.7%	123.6%	102.9%