COVID-19 14th May 2020

Summary

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	888	63.34%	195	113.4%	78.35%	21.65%	Inc.
ES	1,575	114.38%	184	104.5%	87.11%	12.89%	Inc.
DE	927	155.80%	78	63.9%	94.98%	5.02%	Inc.
FR	0	0.00%	83	23.9%	68.49%	31.51%	Inc.
UK	3,242	95.27%	494	78.8%	1.03%	98.97%	Red.
US	21,712	95.22%	1,772	108.7%	78.46%	21.54%	Inc.

Commentary

Russia reaches 250,000 cases (252,245) which have more than doubles since 1 May but no. of deaths is well below 1% at 2,212 with only 6 deaths reported yesterday.

Brazil' cases is approaching 200,000 (189,197) and have also doubled since 1 May.

IT - new cases -514 (63.34%), deaths +23 (113.37%), active cases -2,809 (72.47% of peak).

It's taken a while but Italy now has 27.5% fewer active cases than on 19 Apr and they appear to be reducing more quickly now  and new cases have been lower than 1,500 per day for the 11th consecutive day so hopefully Italy is well over the peak.

ES - new cases +198 (114.38%), deaths +8 (104.38%), active cases -1,366 (61% of peak)

FR - new cases 0, deaths -265 (23.85%), active cases -1,136 (96.8% of peak)

No reported new cases in France - not sure if this is a reporting anomaly?  Along with Italy and Germany France has reported less than 8,000 new cases in the last week  (FR 7,674, IT 7,647, DE 5,936).  Spain is just over double at 17,415 and UK has more than triple at 22,990.

DE - new cases +332 (155.8%), deaths -44 (63.93%), active cases -696 (24.07% of peak)

US - new cases -1,090 (95.22%), deaths +142 (108.71%), active cases +6,427 (99.33% of peak)

UK - new cases -161 (95.27%), deaths -133 (78.79%), active cases +2,748 (100% of peak)

UK Testing - last 7 days

	Daily		Cumulative
	No. Tests	People  Tested	No. Tests	People  Tested	% No. People Tested	% of  Pop.
06-May	86,583	85,092	1,534,533	1,139,626	98.28%	2.26%
07-May	97,029	67,443	1,631,561	1,207,069	69.51%	2.40%
08-May	96,878	63,339	1,728,443	1,270,408	65.38%	2.54%
09-May	92,837	64,362	1,821,280	1,334,770	69.33%	2.68%
10-May	100,490	65,337	1,921,770	1,400,197	65.02%	2.83%
11-May	85,293	60,410	2,007,146	1,460,517	70.83%	2.95%
12-May	87,063	61,741	2,094,209	1,522,258	70.92%	3.08%

Promising news today is that Swiss company Roche has developed an anti-body test which they claim is 100% accurate and has been approved by Public Health England. An anti-body test shows whether someone has already been infected with COVID-19 - I understand that it is only effective after 3/4 weeks of contracting the virus as the body needs to time to make anti-bodies. It requires blood being drawn by a healthcare professional to conduct the test which will unfortunately be the bottleneck.  

Boris Johnson has set target of 200,000 test per day by end of May which sounds a lot but if we pause for a moment a/ the 100,000 target has only been met twice in May b/ to make an easy calculations let's assume 1m test per week (200k for 5 days) - it would take 68 weeks to test the whole of the UK i.e. almost 16 months.  Even at 200k per day every day it would take 340 days (almost a year) to test whole population.

In an 'ideal' world let's assume that we would wish to have everyone tested within 3 months (which is not unreasonable?), that would require around 750k test per day.  The previous test which required a pin prick of blood did not prove reliable.  Let's hope Roche are able to develop the test further so that it does not require blood having to be taken by a healthcare professional which would hopefully expedite it's use.

Obviously testing will need to be prioritised to allow key workers who test positive (i.e. have already contracted the virus) to return to work 'safely' - in inverted quotes as we still do not now for sure whether testing positive means you are immune.

The ONS (Office of National Statistics) has published data on which occupations are most at risk of COVID-19 and not surprisingly health professionals i.e. dentists, ambulance staff, physiotherapists, healthcare staff, care home staff and even pharmacists top the list.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	222,104	78,457	143,647	112,541	31,106	78.35%	21.65%
ES	271,095	60,764	210,331	183,227	27,104	87.11%	12.89%
DE	174,098	17,537	156,561	148,700	7,861	94.98%	5.02%
FR	178,225	92,313	85,912	58,838	27,074	68.49%	31.51%
UK	229,705	196,175	33,530	344	33,186	1.03%	98.97%
US	1,430,348	1,034,892	395,456	310,259	85,197	78.46%	21.54%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 13 May	New Cases 12 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 13 May	Deaths 12 May	Death Increase
IT	888	1,402	-514	195	172	23
ES	1,575	1,377	198	184	176	8
DE	927	595	332	78	122	-44
FR	0	802	-802	83	348	-265
UK	3,242	3,403	-161	494	627	-133
US	21,712	22,802	-1,090	1,772	1,630	142

Latest v previous day - actuals

Day	13-May				12-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	888	222,104	31,106	14.0%	221,216	30,911	14.0%
ES	1,575	271,095	27,104	10.0%	269,520	26,920	10.0%
DE	927	174,098	7,861	4.5%	173,171	7,783	4.5%
FR	0	178,225	27,074	15.2%	178,225	26,991	15.1%
UK	3,242	229,705	33,186	14.4%	226,463	32,692	14.4%
US	21,712	1,430,348	85,197	6.0%	1,408,636	83,425	5.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Week	13-May				06-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	888	222,104	31,106	14.0%	214,457	29,684	13.8%
ES	1,575	271,095	27,104	10.0%	253,682	25,857	10.2%
DE	927	174,098	7,861	4.5%	168,162	7,275	4.3%
FR	0	178,225	27,074	15.2%	170,551	25,809	15.1%
UK	3,242	229,705	33,186	14.4%	206,715	30,076	14.5%
US	21,712	1,430,348	85,197	6.0%	1,263,092	74,799	5.9%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.4%	100.2%	103.6%	101.2%
ES	100.6%	100.1%	106.9%	98.1%
DE	100.5%	100.5%	103.5%	104.4%
FR	100.0%	100.3%	104.5%	100.4%
UK	101.4%	100.1%	111.1%	99.3%
US	101.5%	100.6%	113.2%	100.6%