COVID-19 10th May 2020

Summary

Russia continues to have in excess of 10,000 new cases per day and their cases have now doubled in 10 days from 99,399 29 Apr to 209,668 and look likely to exceed UK and IT in the next few days.

Brazil is in a similar position with their cases increasing from 79,361 on 29 Apr to 156,061

	New Cases	Change	Deaths	Change	Rec'ry Rate	Death Rate
IT	1,083	81.61%	194	79.8%	77.22%	22.78%	Inc.
ES	2,666	81.73%	249	156.6%	86.74%	13.26%	Inc.
DE	736	63.56%	39	33.1%	95.00%	5.00%	Inc.
FR	579	44.95%	80	32.9%	68.05%	31.95%	Inc.
UK	3,896	83.80%	346	55.3%	1.08%	98.92%	Red.
US	25,254	86.60%	1,422	84.3%	74.85%	25.15%	Inc.

Commentary

IT - new cases -244 (81.61%), deaths -49 (79.84%), active cases -3,119 (78.37% of peak)

Italy's active cases has been reducing slowly since 19 Apr and has begun to reduce more quickly in the last week by over 15% from 100,179 to 84,842

ES - new cases -596 (81.73%), deaths +90 (156.6%), active cases -2,262 (63.46% of peak)

FR - new cases -709 (44.95%), deaths -63 (32.92%), active cases +243 (98.99% of peak)

DE - new cases -422 (63.56%) , deaths -79 (33.05%), active cases -903 (28.1% of peak)

US - new cases -2,908 (86.6%) , deaths -265 (84.29%), active cases +9,457

UK - new cases -753 (86.6%), deaths -280 (55.27%), active cases + 3,550

Lowest no. of new cases since 7 Apr and only second occasion where new cases have been below 4,000 since then.

Note that deaths are lower but interestingly if you look at the deaths chart the figure has been consistently lower each weekend only to rise again, so must be a reporting delay.

UK Testing May 2020

	Daily		Cumulative
	No. Tests	People  Tested	No. Tests	People  Tested	% No. People Tested
01-May	105,937	63,667	1,129,907	825,946	60.10%
02-May	76,496	56,397	1,206,405	882,343	73.73%
03-May	85,186	62,956	1,291,591	945,299	73.90%
04-May	84,806	69,839	1,383,842	1,015,138	82.35%
05-May	69,463	57,006	1,448,010	1,072,144	82.07%
06-May	86,583	85,092	1,534,533	1,139,626	98.28%
07-May	97,029	67,443	1,631,561	1,207,069	69.51%
08-May	96,878	63,339	1,728,443	1,270,408	65.38%

Listening this morning to Andrew Marr show with Sir David Spiegelhalter and a worrying statistical claim that less than 5% of UK population has so far been infected by virus.  This is based on 'assumption' that the 'real' death rate is 1% i.e. 31,587 deaths equates to 3,158,700 infections which is 4.65% UK population.  So don't believe the hype that we are anywhere near reaching 'herd immunity'!
Of course it is believed that the death rate is actually much higher than the reported figure and average death rate is higher than expected death rate including all reported COVID deaths.  This indicates 2 possibilities: some are unreported COVID deaths and others are COVID-related due to not seeking medical attention or delays in treatment due to COVID.

There is a clip of interview on BBCPolitics Twitter feed

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - Recovery rate v Death Rate

	Total	Active	Conc.	Recvd.	Deaths	Recvd%	Death%
IT	218,268	84,842	133,426	103,031	30,395	77.22%	22.78%
ES	262,783	63,148	199,635	173,157	26,478	86.74%	13.26%
DE	171,324	20,475	150,849	143,300	7,549	95.00%	5.00%
FR	176,658	94,310	82,348	56,038	26,310	68.05%	31.95%
UK	215,260	183,329	31,931	344	31,587	1.08%	98.92%
US	1,347,309	1,029,024	318,285	238,248	80,037	74.85%	25.15%

Latest v previous day - increase / decrease

Country	New Cases 9 May	New Cases 8 May	New Case Increase	Deaths 9 May	Deaths 8 May	Death Increase
IT	1,083	1,327	-244	194	243	-49
ES	2,666	3,262	-596	249	159	90
DE	736	1,158	-422	39	118	-79
FR	579	1,288	-709	80	243	-163
UK	3,896	4,649	-753	346	626	-280
US	25,254	29,162	-3,908	1,422	1,687	-265

Latest v previous day - actuals

Day	09-May				08-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,083	218,268	30,395	13.9%	217,185	30,201	13.9%
ES	2,666	262,783	26,478	10.1%	260,117	26,229	10.1%
DE	736	171,324	7,549	4.4%	170,588	7,510	4.4%
FR	579	176,658	26,310	14.9%	176,079	26,230	14.9%
UK	3,896	215,260	31,587	14.7%	211,364	31,241	14.8%
US	25,254	1,347,309	80,037	5.9%	1,321,785	78,615	5.9%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Week	09-May				02-May
Ctry	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	1,083	218,268	30,395	13.9%	209,328	28,710	13.7%
ES	2,666	262,783	26,478	10.1%	245,589	25,100	10.2%
DE	736	171,324	7,549	4.4%	164,967	6,812	4.1%
FR	579	176,658	26,310	14.9%	168,396	24,760	14.7%
UK	3,896	215,260	31,587	14.7%	182,260	28,131	15.4%
US	25,254	1,347,309	80,037	5.9%	1,160,774	67,444	5.8%

Latest v one week ago - percentage rate increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	100.5%	100.1%	104.3%	101.5%
ES	101.0%	99.9%	107.0%	98.6%
DE	100.4%	100.1%	103.9%	106.7%
FR	100.3%	100.0%	104.9%	101.3%
UK	101.8%	99.3%	118.1%	95.1%
US	101.9%	99.9%	116.1%	102.2%