COVID-19 9th April 2020

Summary

Early signs that the US 'may' have peaked on 4th Apr with 34,196 new cases as, for the 5th day running, new cases have been lower than this, with latest figures for new cases being 31,935. Thankfully, with total cases quickly approaching 500,000 probably within the next 2 days, the death rate is low at 3.2%.

Spain new cases increased by 1,011 (6,278) but still continue to be lower than peak 8,271 26 Mar.

Italy new cases increased by 797 (3,836) but still continue to be lower than peak 6,557 21 Mar.

Germany new cases increased by 1,345 (5,633) but still continue to be lower than the peak 6,933 27 Mar.

France continues to be unpredictable with new cases reducing by 7,187 (3,881) from yesterday big spike of 11,059.

UK new cases increased 1,857 (5,491) to its 2nd highest number to date after 2 days of decline, but still lower than the peak 5,903 5 Apr.  The worrying trend is that deaths are increasing daily from yesterday's high of 786 to 938.  The number of deaths has tripled in one week from 2,352 on 1 Apr to 7,097 8 Apr. This is the highest of all 6 countries being reported and UK death rate is now only 1% lower than Italy 11.7% v 12.7%.  The average death rate globally is currently 8%.

Rate of increase in deaths by country in last week

IT 135%

ES 157%

DE 252%

FR 269%

UK 301%

US 285%

France, UK and US have all seen the total number of cases double in the last week

FR 56,989 v 112,950 (198%)

UK 29,474 v 60.733 (206%)

US 216,408 v 434,927 (200%)

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country	New Cases 8 Apr	New Cases 7 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 8 Apr	Deaths 7 Apr	Death Increase
IT	3,836	3,039	797	542	604	-62
ES	6,278	5,267	1,011	747	704	43
DE	5,633	4,288	1,345	333	206	127
FR	3,881	11,059	-7,178	541	1417	-876
UK	5,491	3,634	1,857	938	786	152
US	31,935	33,331	-1,396	1,947	1970	-23

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	08-Apr				07-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,836	139,422	17,669	12.7%	135,586	17,127	12.6%
ES	6,278	148,220	14,792	10.0%	141,192	14,045	9.9%
DE	5,633	113,296	2,349	2.1%	107,633	2,016	1.9%
FR	3,881	112,950	10,869	9.6%	109,969	10,328	9.4%
UK	5,491	60,733	7,097	11.7%	55,242	6,159	11.1%
US	31,935	434,927	14,788	3.4%	400,335	12,841	3.2%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	08-Apr				01-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	3,836	139,422	17,669	12.7%	110,574	13,155	11.9%
ES	6,278	148,220	14,792	10.0%	104,118	9,387	9.0%
DE	5,633	113,296	2,349	2.1%	77,981	931	1.2%
FR	3,881	112,950	10,869	9.6%	56,989	4,032	7.1%
UK	5,491	60,733	7,097	11.7%	29,474	2,352	8.0%
US	31,935	434,927	14,788	3.4%	216,408	5,197	2.4%

Latest v one week ago - percentage increase cases / deaths

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	102.8%	100.3%	126.1%	106.5%
ES	105.0%	100.3%	142.4%	110.7%
DE	105.3%	110.7%	145.3%	173.7%
FR	102.7%	102.5%	198.2%	136.0%
UK	109.9%	104.8%	206.1%	146.4%
US	108.6%	106.0%	201.0%	141.6%