COVID-19 5th April 2020

Summary

The total number of cases in Spain (126,168) has overtaken Italy (124,632). However, new cases have been lower for each of the 3 days since the double peaks of 8,271 26 Mar and 8,195 1 Apr at 6,969.

New cases in Italy seem to be stabilising between 4,500-5,000.

New cases in Germany are down from the 'double peak' of 2 days ago (6,933 27 Mar 6,813 2 Apr) to 4,933.

As as stated a few days ago, I believe now that Italy, Spain and Germany may now have seen their peaks, but in France, UK and US new cases may still have to reach their peak.

Daily deaths in the UK have risen for the 5th day from 381 on 31 Mar to 708 and UK now has 2nd highest death rate of 10.3% (after Italy 12.3%) but the new cases have dropped from the previous 3 highs over 4,000 to 3,738.

US continues to see new cases increase daily, up nearly 2,000 more than the previous day to 34,196 with total cases now 311,357 a 250% increase in the last week. UK and France have also seen increases of cases 245% and 240% respectively.

France saw the highest number of new cases in Europe (7,788) and their highest to date excepting the 'adjustment' yesterday to include nursing homes.

Latest stats from Worldometers

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country	New Cases 4 Apr	New Cases 3 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 4 Apr	Deaths 3 Apr	Death Increase
IT	4,805	4,585	220	681	766	-85
ES	6,969	7,134	-165	749	850	-101
DE	4,933	6,365	-1,432	169	168	1
FR	7,788	23,060	-15,272	1,053	1120	-67
UK	3,735	4,450	-715	708	684	24
US	34,196	32,284	1,912	1,060	1322	-262

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	04-Apr				03-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,805	124,632	15,362	12.3%	119,827	14,681	12.3%
ES	6,969	126,168	11,947	9.5%	119,199	11,198	9.4%
DE	4,933	96,092	1,444	1.5%	91,159	1,275	1.4%
FR	7,788	89,953	7,560	8.4%	82,165	6,507	7.9%
UK	3,735	41,903	4,313	10.3%	38,168	3,605	9.4%
US	34,196	311,357	8,452	2.7%	277,161	7,392	2.7%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	04-Apr				28-Mar
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,805	124,632	15,362	12.3%	92,472	10,023	10.8%
ES	6,969	126,168	11,947	9.5%	73,235	5,982	8.2%
DE	4,933	96,092	1,444	1.5%	57,695	433	0.8%
FR	7,788	89,953	7,560	8.4%	37,575	2,314	6.2%
UK	3,735	41,903	4,313	10.3%	17,089	1,019	6.0%
US	34,196	311,357	8,452	2.7%	123,578	2,220	1,8%

Latest v one week - rate of increase

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	104.0%	100.6%	134.8%	113.7%
ES	105.8%	100.8%	172.3%	115.9%
DE	105.4%	107.4%	166.6%	200.2%
FR	109.5%	106.1%	239.4%	136.5%
UK	109.8%	109.0%	245.2%	172.6%
US	112.3%	101.8%	2529.0%	151.1%