COVID-19 4th April 2020

France saw a huge surge in new cases (23,060) and new deaths (6,507).  This is because they previously didn't report cases and deaths in nursing homes which have now been included.  This now takes France's reported cases higher than China's.  Only the UK now (in the 6 countries I'm reporting) have fewer cases than China.

The UK saw its highest number of new cases to date 4,450.  A few days ago I speculated when UK would reach 50,000 cases. On 31st Mar there were 25,150 and when Italy had 25,000 it took 6 days to exceed 50,000.  UK looks on course to replicate that figure as 3 days later we have risen from 25,150 to 38,168 with over 4,000 case per day - 3 more days like this will put the figure over 50,000.  UK also now has the joint 2nd highest death rate (9.4%) along with Spain after Italy (12.3%).

If you are even contemplating flouting the government advice/instruction this weekend or next (Easter Bank Holiday) consider this ... if you catch the virus you have a 10% risk of dying from it!  Also if we don't want the country to be in lockdown indefinitely then we need to take the short-term hit to stop the spread and reduce new cases, otherwise the death rate will probably increase owing to the huge pressure on the health service being unable to cope with the large number of cases.  We know it makes sense!

New cases in the The US continue to rise each day.  Almost as many new cases reported in US  (32,284) in a day than the total in UK (38,168)!  

Italy, Spain and Germany all 'hopefully' have now already peaked? If we in UK adhere to government advice then hopefully by this time next week the UK will also have peaked after almost 3 weeks of lockdown.

NOTE.  The above comments are my own personal views/observations from studying the latest statistics published by Worldometers and may or may not reflect 'official' views.

Latest stats from Worldometers.

Latest v previous day - increase/decrease

Country	New Cases 3 Apr	New Cases 2 Apr	New Case Increase	Deaths 3 Apr	Deaths 2 Apr	Death Increase
IT	4,585	4,668	-83	766	760	6
ES	7,134	7,947	-813	850	961	-111
DE	6,365	6,813	-448	168	176	-8
FR	23,060	2,116	20,944	1,120	1355	-235
UK	4,450	4,224	226	684	569	115
US	32,284	29,874	2,410	1,322	968	354

Latest v previous day - actuals

Daily	03-Apr				02-Apr
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,585	119,827	14,681	12.3%	115,242	13,915	12.1%
ES	7,134	119,199	11,198	9.4%	112,065	10,348	9.2%
DE	6,365	91,159	1,275	1.4%	84,794	1,107	1.3%
FR	23,060	82,165	6,507	7.9%	59,105	5,387	9.1%
UK	4,450	38,168	3,605	9.4%	33,718	2,921	8.7%
US	32,284	277,161	7,392	2.7%	244,877	6,070	2.5%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

Weekly	03-Apr				27-Mar
Country	New Cases	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%	Total Cases	No. Deaths	Death Rate%
IT	4,585	119,827	14,681	12.3%	86,498	9,134	10.6%
ES	7,134	119,199	11,198	9.4%	65,719	5138	7.8%
DE	6,365	91,159	1,275	1.4%	30,871	351	1.1%
FR	23,060	82,165	6,507	7.9%	29,155	2314	7.9%
UK	4,450	38,168	3,605	9.4%	15,543	759	4.9%
US	32,284	277,161	7,392	2.7%	104,126	1695	1.6%

Latest v one week ago - actuals

	Daily		Weekly
Country	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor	Total Cases Increase Factor	Death Rate  Increase Factor
IT	104.0%	101.5%	138.5%	116.0%
ES	106.4%	101.7%	181.4%	120.2%
DE	107.5%	107.1%	295.3%	123.0%
FR	139.0%	86.9%	281.8%	99.8%
UK	113.2%	109.0%	245.6%	193.4%
US	113.2%	107.6%	266.2%	163.8%