Wednesday, 1 April 2020

COVID-19 1st April 2020


Summary

US:  highest number of new cases so far 24,742 and has seen cases increase each day since 22nd Mar from 9,400 and also its highest number of new deaths up to 912 from 558 on 30th Mar.

Italy continues see new cases reduce from their peak of 6,557 on 21st Mar and stabilise around 4,000 but had its 3rd highest number of deaths 836 (919 27th Mar and  889 28th Mar).

Spain: 2nd highest number of new cases 7,967 v 8,271 26th Mar and number of new deaths is reducing.

Germany new cases down to 4,923 from peak 6,933 27th Mar and highest number of new deaths up to 130 from previous high of 108 on 29th Mar.

France: highest number of new cases by a large margin 7,578 from 4,611 on 28th Mar and highest number of new deaths 499 from 418 on 30th Mar.

UK: highest number of new cases up to 3,009 from 2,885 27th Mar and highest number of new deaths up to 381 from 260 on 28th Mar.

Although the death rate is rising in Italy new cases are declining so after 2/3 weeks we should also see the death rate declining as obviously it lags behind.  There are signs that perhaps Spain and Germany may have peaked, but France, UK & US are lagging by a couple of weeks. I estimate France 10 days UK 15 days and US 21 days.  Figures from China and Italy seem to indicate that the virus peaks around 4/5 weeks from first 100 cases. 

Figures below show no. of days to 1,000, 10,000 and 50,000 cases by country from the first 100 cases (approx.).

Summary
1,000 cases:  7 to 10 days
10,000 cases:  15 to 22 days
50,000 cases:  24 to 31 days

The good news for those in UK is that so far UK has not reached 50,000 cases 27 days after 100 cases were reached. However when Italy had 25,000 cases (15 Mar), as UK currently has, it was 6 days later (21 Mar) that they doubled to 53,578, but growth rate is still slower in UK than other western countries on  most counts.

Italy 
22 Feb - 79 cases 
29 Feb - 1,228 - 7 days 
10 Mar - 10,149 - 17 days 
21 Mar - 53,578 - 28 days

France 
29 Feb - 100 cases 
8th Mar - 1,209 - 8 days 
19 Mar - 10,995 - 19 days
31 Mar - 52,128 - 31 days

Germany
29 Feb - 79 cases
8 Mar - 1,040 - 8 days 
19 Mar - 9.367 - 19 days 
27 Mar - 50,871 - 27 days

Spain
1 Mar - 84 cases
9 Mar - 1,241 - 9 days 
16 Mar - 9,942 - 16 days 
25 Mar - 49,515 - 25 days

US
2 Mar - 100 cases
10 Mar - 994 - 9 days 
18 Mar - 9,197 - 17 days 
24 Mar - 54,856 - 23 days

UK 
4 Mar - 87 cases
14 Mar - 1,140 - 10 days 
26 Mar - 11,658 - 22 days
Not reached 50,000 cases

Latest stats from Worldometers.

Country
New Cases
31 Mar
New Cases
30 Mar
New Case Increase


Deaths

31 Mar


Deaths

30 Mar


Death

Increase
IT 4053 4050 3 837 812 25
ES 8327 7486 841 748 913 -165
DE 4923 4450 473 130 104 26
FR 7578 4376 3202 499 418 81
UK 3009 2619 390 381 180 201
US 24742 20353 4389 897 672 225


Daily 31-Mar 30 Mar (-1 Day)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate% Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
IT 4,053 105,792 12,428 11.7% 101,739 11,591 11.4%
ES 7,967 95,923 8,464 8.8% 87,596 7,716 8.8%
DE 4,923 71,808 775 1.1% 66,885 645 1.0%
FR 7,578 52,128 3,523 6.8% 44,550 3,024 6.8%
UK 3,009 25,150 1,789 7.1% 22,141 1,408 6.4%
US 24,742 188,530 4,053 2.1% 163,884 3,156 1.9%


Weekly 31-Mar 24 Mar (-1 Week)
Country New Cases Total Cases No. Deaths Death Rate%
Total
Cases
No.
Deaths
Death Rate%
IT 4,053 105,792 12,428 11.7% 69,176 6,820 9.9%
ES 7,967 95,923 8,464 8.8% 42,058 2991 7.1%
DE 4,923 71,808 775 1.1% 32,991 159 0.5%
FR 7,578 52,128 3,523 6.8% 22,304 1100 4.9%
UK 3,009 25,150 1,789 7.1% 8,077 422 5.2%
US 24,742 188,530 4,053 2.1% 54,856 780 1.4%


Daily Weekly
Country
Total
Cases

Increase

Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
Total
Cases

Increase

Factor
Death Rate
 Increase Factor
IT 104.0% 103.1% 152.9% 119.2%
ES 109.5% 100.2% 228.1% 124.1%
DE 107.4% 111.9% 217.7% 223.9%
FR 117.0% 99.6% 233.7% 137.0%
UK 113.6% 111.9% 311.4% 136.1%
US 115.0% 111.6% 343.7% 151.2%

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